Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 11: Schedule, odds and best early bets

Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs with the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u4.5 receptions (-103): Game-high 15.8% PFF Greenline edge; McCaffrey under in two of first three with Niners, who are getting healthier.

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u35.5 receiving yards (-107): Fade Run-CMC? Admittedly dangerous, but Niners up to 10-point road favorites and probably won't throw much against our 28th-rated run defense in PFF grading.

• Bet Brandon Aiyuk o54.5 receiving yards (-120): Aiyuk has hit this number in 15 of his past 22 games, including 8-89-1 receiving in previous ARI meeting; elite (93.7%) advantage in our WR/CB Matchup Chart.

 

Last updated: Nov. 20, 10:40 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins


Take a look at the odds for every Week 11 game, courtesy of BetMGM, followed by PFF Greenline and PFF staff best bets.

Sunday, Nov. 20

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Bears +3 (-120) o48.5 (-110) +125
Falcons -3 (+100) u48.5 (-110) -150

Bet Bears QB Justin Fields o1.5 pass TDs: 8.6% PFF Greenline edge; Fields has been very good when given time to throw — and Falcons create pressure at NFL's second-lowest rate (24%).

Bet Bears alt spread -2.5 + Bears team total o20.5 (+195): After completely rebuilding their offense around Justin Fields during “mini bye,” the Bears are moving the ball at the NFL's second-highest rate over past four weeks.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Browns +7.5 (-120) o50.5 (-110) +275
Bills -7.5 (-100) u50.5 (-110) -350

Bet Browns +7.5: Game-high 3.4% Greenline edge; Bills have been gashed on the ground over past three games (5.9 ypc allowed) entering matchup with PFF's second-graded back Nick Chubb.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Eagles -6.5 (-110) o45 (-110) -300
Colts +6.5 (-110) u45 (-110) +240

• Bet Eagles RB Miles Sanders u64.5 rush yards: Philly likely to attack Indy through air, where Colts have fifth-lowest-graded pass rush (compared to No. 7 run ‘D'); 6.5% Greenline edge.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Jets +3.5 (-115) o38 (-110) +145
Patriots -3.5 (-105) u38 (-110) -175

• Bet Jets QB Zach Wilson u0.5 pass TDs: 13% PFF Greenline edge; Patriots have allowed the lowest expected points added per dropback of any defense in the league this season (-.198).

• Bet Patriots QB Mac Jones u203.5 pass yards:  Jones has the 3rd worst Expected Points Added (EPA) when the chance of his team passing is 70% or greater. 

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Rams +2.5 (-110) o39.5 (-110) +125
Saints -2.5 (-110) u39.5 (-110) -150

Bet Saints QB Andy Dalton u0.5 INTs (+123): 9.9% Greenline edge; Dalton has an impressive 2.5 turnover-worthy-play rate.

Bet Saints RB Alvin Kamara u65.5 vs Rams: Kamara rushes for 5+ yards above expectation on only 4.5% of his carries, trailing only Washington's Brian Robinson among qualifying NFL backs.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Lions +3 (-110) o45 (-110) +135
Giants -3 (-110) u45 (-110) -165

Bet Giants QB Daniel Jones o1.5 pass TDs: Game-high 11.3% PFF Greenline edge; Lions have allowed 2+ pass TDs in 5/9 games this season.

Bet Giants QB Daniel Jones o34.5 rush yards: Hasn't run as much lately, but still averaging 0.87 rushing yards over expected, and 5.54 yards per designed run, Jones is in good buy-low spot vs one of NFL's worst run defenses.

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Panthers +13 (-120) o41.5 (-110) +525
Ravens -13 (-100) u41.5 (-110) -750

Bet Panthers QB Baker Mayfield u0.5 INT (+165): 15.5% Greenline edge currently the biggest of Sunday in Week 11.

Bet Panthers WR D.J. Moore o52.5 receiving yards (-115): Ridiculous 52 percent share of Panthers' air yards over past 3 games, when he's commanded 28 percent of total targets.

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Commanders -3 (-110) o41.5 (-110) -160
Texans +3 (-110) u41.5 (-110) +130

Bet Texans RB Dameon Pierce o18.5 carries (-116): 4.6% PFF Greenline edge; impressive rookie Pierce posted a 90.9 run grade against tough Eagles front two games ago, before averaging 5.5 yards per carry against Giants

Bet Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. anytime TD (+105): Houston has one of NFL's worst run defenses (league-low 37.6 PFF grade), allowing 180+ yards per game — staggering 216-yard average over past 3 games.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Raiders +2.5 (-105) o41.5 (-110) +120
Broncos -2.5 (-115) u41.5 (-110) -145

Bet Broncos RB Melvin Gordon u37.5 rush yards (-124): Averaging -1.01 RYOE, Gordon has gone under his rushing prop number in 8 straight games.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Cowboys -1.5 (-110) o48.5 (-110) -120
Vikings +1.5 (-110) u48.5 (-110) +100

Bet Vikings QB Kirk Cousins o3.5 rush yards (-111): Game-high 7.1% Greenline edge; Cousins has multiple carries in 6/9 games, including past five in a row.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Bengals -3.5 (-115) o39.5 (-110) -200
Steelers +3.5 (-105) u39.5 (-110) +165

Bet  Bengals TE Hayden Hurst u40.5 receiving yards: Although Hurst has a plus matchup per our TE matchup tool with Steelers LB Robert Spillane, PFF Greenline finds value in the under (game-high 6.1% edge).

Bet Steelers RB Najee Harris u47.5 vs Bengals: Harris this season has the second-fewest rushing yards over expected (RYOE) among NFL qualifiers (85+ carries); he's averaging -0.90 RYOE/attempt.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Chiefs -5.5 (-110) o52 (-110) -250
Chargers +5.5 (-110) u52 (-110) +200

Bet Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+116): Believe it or not, at 19%, currently PFF Greenline's biggest edge of Week 11.

Bet Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney anytime TD (+180): Shapes up as Mahomes' top target Sunday night.

Mon., Nov. 21

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Team Spread Total Moneyline
49ers -10 (-110) o42.5 (-110) -450
Cardinals +10 (-110) u42.5 (-110) +340

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u4.5 receptions (-103): Game-high 15.8% PFF Greenline edge; McCaffrey under in two of first three with Niners, who are getting healthier.

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u35.5 receiving yards (-107): Fade Run-CMC? Admittedly dangerous, but Niners up to 10-point road favorites and probably won't throw much against our 28th-rated run defense in PFF grading.

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