NFL Week 11: Schedule, odds and best early bets

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u4.5 receptions (-103): Game-high 15.8% PFF Greenline edge; McCaffrey under in two of first three with Niners, who are getting healthier.

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u35.5 receiving yards (-107): Fade Run-CMC? Admittedly dangerous, but Niners up to 10-point road favorites and probably won't throw much against our 28th-rated run defense in PFF grading.

• Bet Brandon Aiyuk o54.5 receiving yards (-120): Aiyuk has hit this number in 15 of his past 22 games, including 8-89-1 receiving in previous ARI meeting; elite (93.7%) advantage in our WR/CB Matchup Chart.

Last updated: Nov. 20, 10:40 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

Take a look at the odds for every Week 11 game, courtesy of BetMGM, followed by PFF Greenline and PFF staff best bets.

Sunday, Nov. 20

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

• Bet Bears QB Justin Fields o1.5 pass TDs: 8.6% PFF Greenline edge; Fields has been very good when given time to throw — and Falcons create pressure at NFL's second-lowest rate (24%).

• Bet Bears alt spread -2.5 + Bears team total o20.5 (+195): After completely rebuilding their offense around Justin Fields during “mini bye,” the Bears are moving the ball at the NFL's second-highest rate over past four weeks.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

• Bet Browns +7.5: Game-high 3.4% Greenline edge; Bills have been gashed on the ground over past three games (5.9 ypc allowed) entering matchup with PFF's second-graded back Nick Chubb.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

• Bet Eagles RB Miles Sanders u64.5 rush yards: Philly likely to attack Indy through air, where Colts have fifth-lowest-graded pass rush (compared to No. 7 run ‘D'); 6.5% Greenline edge.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

• Bet Jets QB Zach Wilson u0.5 pass TDs: 13% PFF Greenline edge; Patriots have allowed the lowest expected points added per dropback of any defense in the league this season (-.198).

• Bet Patriots QB Mac Jones u203.5 pass yards:  Jones has the 3rd worst Expected Points Added (EPA) when the chance of his team passing is 70% or greater. 

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

• Bet Saints QB Andy Dalton u0.5 INTs (+123): 9.9% Greenline edge; Dalton has an impressive 2.5 turnover-worthy-play rate.

• Bet Saints RB Alvin Kamara u65.5 vs Rams: Kamara rushes for 5+ yards above expectation on only 4.5% of his carries, trailing only Washington's Brian Robinson among qualifying NFL backs.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

• Bet Giants QB Daniel Jones o1.5 pass TDs: Game-high 11.3% PFF Greenline edge; Lions have allowed 2+ pass TDs in 5/9 games this season.

• Bet Giants QB Daniel Jones o34.5 rush yards: Hasn't run as much lately, but still averaging 0.87 rushing yards over expected, and 5.54 yards per designed run, Jones is in good buy-low spot vs one of NFL's worst run defenses.

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

• Bet Panthers QB Baker Mayfield u0.5 INT (+165): 15.5% Greenline edge currently the biggest of Sunday in Week 11.

• Bet Panthers WR D.J. Moore o52.5 receiving yards (-115): Ridiculous 52 percent share of Panthers' air yards over past 3 games, when he's commanded 28 percent of total targets.

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

• Bet Texans RB Dameon Pierce o18.5 carries (-116): 4.6% PFF Greenline edge; impressive rookie Pierce posted a 90.9 run grade against tough Eagles front two games ago, before averaging 5.5 yards per carry against Giants

• Bet Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. anytime TD (+105): Houston has one of NFL's worst run defenses (league-low 37.6 PFF grade), allowing 180+ yards per game — staggering 216-yard average over past 3 games.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

• Bet Broncos RB Melvin Gordon u37.5 rush yards (-124): Averaging -1.01 RYOE, Gordon has gone under his rushing prop number in 8 straight games.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

• Bet Vikings QB Kirk Cousins o3.5 rush yards (-111): Game-high 7.1% Greenline edge; Cousins has multiple carries in 6/9 games, including past five in a row.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Bet  Bengals TE Hayden Hurst u40.5 receiving yards: Although Hurst has a plus matchup per our TE matchup tool with Steelers LB Robert Spillane, PFF Greenline finds value in the under (game-high 6.1% edge).

• Bet Steelers RB Najee Harris u47.5 vs Bengals: Harris this season has the second-fewest rushing yards over expected (RYOE) among NFL qualifiers (85+ carries); he's averaging -0.90 RYOE/attempt.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Bet Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+116): Believe it or not, at 19%, currently PFF Greenline's biggest edge of Week 11.

• Bet Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney anytime TD (+180): Shapes up as Mahomes' top target Sunday night.

Mon., Nov. 21

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u4.5 receptions (-103): Game-high 15.8% PFF Greenline edge; McCaffrey under in two of first three with Niners, who are getting healthier.

• Bet Christian McCaffrey u35.5 receiving yards (-107): Fade Run-CMC? Admittedly dangerous, but Niners up to 10-point road favorites and probably won't throw much against our 28th-rated run defense in PFF grading.