Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 10 Betting Market Movers: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen's injury creates opportunity

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) avoids a tackle by Green Bay Packers linebacker Preston Smith (91) and safety Adrian Amos (31) to throw a touchdown in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Allen's elbow injury is causing market fluidity in Bills -6.5 vs Vikings: And with the number likely to move between -2.5 and -3.5 if Case Keenum starts, the recommended strategy is to wait and buy low on Buffalo.

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An even better play than Dolphins -4 vs Cleveland: If bettors believe in the Miami offense and also think Allen could miss some time would be betting now on Miami (+500) to win the AFC East.

Last updated: Nov. 8, 12:15 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 5 mins


The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 10 have been at critical points in the past.

Away Home Preseason Lookahead Week-of-Open Current
ATL CAR -4.5 1.5 2.5 3
SEA TB -9.5 -3 -1.5 -1.5
DEN TEN 0 -1.5 -2 -3
NO PIT -1.5 3 2.5 2.5
MIN BUF -7.5 -8.5 -7.5 -6.5
DET CHI -1.5 -2.5 -2.5 -3
CLV MIA -4.5 -4.5 -4 -4
HST NYG -3 -6.5 -6 -6.5
JAX KC -10 -9.5 -10 -9.5
IND LV -2 -3.5 -6 -6.5
ARZ LA -6 -3 -3.5 -3
DAL GB -4 2.5 4.5 5
LAC SF 0 -3.5 -6.5 -7
WAS PHI -3.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5

 

Another valuable datapoint often is the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 10.

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.

 

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
Will Hernandez ARZ G pectoral Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/Cardschatter/status/1589721712630718464
Budda Baker ARZ S ankle Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1589764918902853632
Matt Hennessy ATL LG knee Out Week 10 https://twitter.com/tellmetimes/status/1589695223441260544
Josh Allen BUF QB elbow Questionable https://twitter.com/billsupdates/status/1589796923451514883
Gregory Rousseau BUF ED ankle Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/status/1589657565927202817
Derrick Brown CAR DI illness DTD https://twitter.com/KelseyLConway/status/1589347430767955968
Kindle Vildor CHI CB ankle https://twitter.com/kfishbain/status/1589326208352804865
Chris Evans CIN HB knee Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/Ben_Baby/status/1589694679339114498
Dax Hill CIN S shoulder Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/Ben_Baby/status/1589694679339114498
Kerby Joseph DET S concussion protocol https://twitter.com/kmeinke/status/1589371691590979590
Malcolm Rodriguez DET LB elbow DTD https://twitter.com/davebirkett/status/1589700934007140352
David Bakhtiari GB LT knee https://twitter.com/JuMosq/status/1589342408420233217
Rashan Gary GB ED knee season ending https://twitter.com/ThePackersWire/status/1589733350260064256
Romeo Doubs GB WR ankle 4-6 Weeks https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1589669846249136129
Eric Stokes GB CB ankle/knee Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/RobDemovsky/status/1589728063545233408
Jon Runyan GB G knee https://twitter.com/zachkruse2/status/1589325825178234881
Christian Watson GB WR concussion evaluated for https://twitter.com/BenjaminSRaven/status/1589345913910460416
Krys Barnes GB LB concussion https://twitter.com/zachkruse2/status/1589362071623200768
Aaron Jones GB HB ankle https://twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1589619451707723777
Nico Collins HST WR groin Questionable https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/status/1589723375056072704
Evan Engram JAX TE back DTD https://twitter.com/tashanreed/status/1589354571004276736
Rayshawn Jenkin JAX S concussion protocol https://twitter.com/ESPNdirocco/status/1589683843723714560
Jaylen Watson KC CB medical tent https://twitter.com/ByNateTaylor/status/1589448489334984706
Deon Bush KC S knee DTD https://twitter.com/goldmctNFL/status/1589486407092817920
Matthew Stafford LA QB hand https://twitter.com/GManzano24/status/1589374740267159552
Austin Johnson LAC DI knee season ending https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1589761554316021761
Trey Pipkins LAC RT MCL DTD https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1589755452354609152
Divine Deablo LV LB forearm IR https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1589738039877677057
Hunter Long MIA TE concussion protocol https://twitter.com/chrisperk/status/1589734319941357568
Cameron Dantzler MIN CB ankle Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/BenGoessling/status/1589722273073741824
Erik McCoy NO C calf questionable https://twitter.com/SeanFazendeFOX8/status/1589813778731872258
Xavier McKinney NYG S hand 4-6 Weeks https://twitter.com/art_stapleton/status/1589660628037369857
Nick Williams NYG DI biceps IR https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1589724716415488000
Zach Wilson NYJ QB medical tent https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1589325847298592768
CJ Mosley NYJ LB shoulder https://twitter.com/AdamBenigni/status/1589326491388616704
Sheldon Rankins NYJ DI elbow 4-6 Weeks https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1589693087890436097
Carlton Davis TB CB knee https://twitter.com/NFLSTROUD/status/1589377156584738816
Bud Dupree TEN ED hip https://twitter.com/terrymc13/status/1589461691724464128
Josh Thompson TEN CB knee https://twitter.com/PaulKuharskyNFL/status/1589457213877518337

Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5, 46)

The matchup that will surely dominate the Week 10 discourse: The 7-1 Vikings visiting the 6-2 Bills, also adding in the Josh Allen injury uncertainty. The market’s already baked some uncertainty into the number, moving from -8.5 on the lookahead to -7.5 opening and now down to -6. No one is saying this would be enough if Josh Allen is indeed out, but the question becomes: After the Justin Herbert injury game, if Josh Allen winds up starting, does the number move back toward Buffalo?

-6 is probably where it holds: Given the valid concerns about effectiveness for an elbow injury that could have played a role in one poor performance already. With a baseline expectation of -6 to -6.5 with Josh Allen in the fold, where do we move to if Allen is indeed out?

We should see further movement in the Vikings' direction: As this game probably closes between -3.5 and -2.5 with Case Keenum at the helm. Not only would the loss of Allen prohibit Buffalo's passing game, it likely also would have an outsized impact on the Bills' rushing success. Fold in all of the key injuries to the Bills defense, and from a pure line-movement play, it doesn’t look like we are heading any direction but down. But instead of chasing the steam, this seems like a spot to wait and buy low on the Bills if it really does come crashing down. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-4, 48.5)

No line movement is expected prior to kickoff: But if we do see some, it should say a lot about the opinion of sharp bettors on either one of these teams. Cleveland’s coming off an impressive performance before the bye and now returns healthier with their two biggest injured stars, Denzel Ward and Wyatt Teller, both likely getting in a full week of practice ahead of this AFC showdown.

Despite another showcase game offensively: Miami still isn’t getting a ton of respect in the betting market. The line on this matchup dropped from -4.5 to -4, and it’s tough to get an accurate gauge on the ‘Phins' multi-week outlook as they head into a bye after this matchup.

Given the uncertainty of Josh Allen's right elbow, Miami +500 to win AFC East has value: It’s possible Miami has the NFL's best offense, especially from an explosive plays perspective. In prior seasons that's been a great trait to buy into from a betting perspective. If you are a believer in the Dolphins, and also think Allen could miss some time, an even better play than -4 vs Cleveland is a bet on the Dolphins in the division market, where they're currently +500 at DraftKings. A win heading into the bye will boost their long-term outlook, and the longer Allen is out, the shorter the Dolphins' price will get. 

 

 

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