Fantasy: The Texan Trio

In a recent article, I pointed out that Houston Texans' Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson combined to create fantasy's best same-team trio. Foster and Johnson are being drafted first at their respective positions and Schaub is a solid fantasy starter. These three players scored an average of 300 fantasy points each last season and will look to duplicate their success in 2011.

Schaub made the transition from a backup in Atlanta to a stud in Houston look easy. In the past two seasons, Schaub has thrown for 9,140 yards with a 65.8 completion percentage. His 53 touchdowns since 2009 are not bad, but lower than some of his counterparts. In fact, his lower touchdown numbers (just 24 last season) is what is keeping him from being drafted as a top-six quarterback.

One of the biggest things Schaub has going for him is consistency. In 2009, Schaub had only two games with a negative PFF rating. Last season, he lowered than number to one. 28 of his other games over the past two seasons have been graded in the green. Schaub was our 5th rated passer in 2009 with a 51.0 rating and our sixth rated passer in 2010 with a 46.0 rating. Schaub's current ADP is 70 (ninth quarterback), behind guys like Michael Crabtree and just ahead of rookie Daniel Thomas of Miami. Considering Schaub is a sure bet to throw for over 4,000 yards and will give you the weekly consistency needed for fantasy quarterbacks, he is well worth the wait into the fifth or sixth round of a fantasy draft.

Arian Foster was last year's zero-to-hero fantasy player, but now that everyone knows his name, you will need a top-3 pick to have a chance at him. It would be surprising for Foster to match his totals from last season, but he will still be a force. He carried the ball 327 times last season (third in the league), proving he has what it takes to be an every down back. However, Ben Tate, who is returning from injury, and Derrick Ward will be in the mix for carries, as well. Foster is more valuable in PPR leagues because of his pass-catching abilities. He had 14 games last season with at least two catches and racked up over 600 receiving yards.

Houston boasts the eighth best RT (Eric Winston) and eighth best LT (Duane Brown) in terms of run blocking. They also have the ninth-ranked run blocking RG (Mike Brisiel) and the third best run blocking C (Chris Myers). Having four O-linemen all in the top-ten at run blocking at their respective positions makes Foster's job easier. As a team, Houston had the third best run block rating at 31.5. Brisiel is set to be a free agent, but I expect Houston to try to hold on to him. If not, it could hurt Foster more than people realize.

Below is a chart detailing what most should find logical. This shows what percentage of Foster's runs went in what direction and what percentage of his yardage was gained from each location.

As expected, most of the percentages are similar to each other. The two glaring differences come when running between the center and right guard and running around the right side of the line. If Brisiel is lost to free agency, Foster could lose his most effective running gap in the line. He racked up 21% of his yardage on just 14% of his carries running in between Myers and the RG. Foster also had a 17.2 PFF rating running off-center. The potential loss of Brisiel does not spell disaster for Foster, though. Brisiel took less snaps at RG than Houston's other RG, Antoine Caldwell (510 to 561). However, Brisiel's run blocking was superior (5.1 rating vs. 0.5 rating), and it remains to be seen if Caldwell can step into a full-time role.

In 13 games last season, Caldwell had one game with a rating of zero, six games with a negative rating, and six games with a positive rating. In other words, Caldwell has been an inconsistent RG for Houston. Also, Houston does a good job of spreading where they run the ball while being effective in seven of eight locations (off the RE being ineffective). Again, a full-time change at RG will not ruin Foster, but it is hard to imagine it not have some sort of negative affect; keep your eye on the situation.

Now on to Andre Johnson, a player any fantasy footballer knows about. He scored the fifth most points per route (PPR) in 2009 and the eighth most in 2010. His points per snap (PPS) were seventh best in 2009 and ninth best in 2010. People might look at his back-to-back 1,500+ yard, 100+ catch seasons in 2008 and 2009 think he slipped last season. Here is 2009 and 2010 in generic stat-sheet form:

A lot of fans will quickly view this drop-off as a result of Foster's emergence. However, Foster's emergence did not negatively affect Johnson. Consider that Johnson played in only 13 games in 2010, as compared to full seasons in 2008 and 2009. Below is a chart showing a more accurate comparison between 2009 and 2010, with Johnson's 2010 stats being extrapolated over a full 16 game season.

As you can see, Johnson ran a pass route a higher percentage of the time in 2010 than in 2009. His role in the offense was not diminished because of Foster. If Johnson had remained healthy, his 2010 season would have been almost identical to 2009. If you are afraid to draft Johnson because you think he is less of the focal point because of Foster, this should change your mind. If anything, Foster has helped Johnson because it no longer allows defenses to focus solely on slowing the beast of a receiver. Johnson's “lower” statistics last season can be solely blamed on injury, which led to fewer opportunities.

Schaub, Foster, and Johnson have teamed up to create the most fantasy relevant offense in the NFL. Health permitting, Houston's three-headed monster will shine again in 2011.

Follow Tyler on Twitter – @PFF_Loechner