Premium Content Sign Up

The players at the extremes of yards per route run

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 22: Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons runs after a catch for a 73 yard touchdown against Damarious Randall #23 of the Green Bay Packers in the third quarter in the NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome on January 22, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Efficiency statistics suck! Or, at least that’s what we’re told. As I explored earlier in the week, that isn’t entirely true. Efficiency wasn’t very meaningful when looking at our data sample as a whole, but when ignoring the middle-bulk of the spectrum and focusing on the polar ends (especially efficient or inefficient players), efficiency proved to be very useful when projecting future volume and efficiency.

Some efficiency metrics certainly do suck (even among the polar ends), but the one that sucks least of all is yards per route run.

Barrett 1

Yards per route run and fantasy points per route run trump all other efficiency metrics on a per-target or per-snap basis. This makes sense intuitively. Anything on a per-snap basis skews against wide receivers on run-heavy teams. Anything on a per-target basis unneedingly smears highly targeted receivers, when targets are actually a positive indicator of talent.

As you can see below, wide receivers ranking top-20 in yards per route run are much more likely to have fantasy success in the following season. The reverse is true for bottom-20 wide receivers.

Barrett 2

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit