Each week in this space, we’ll be taking a look back at Sunday’s games to find five of the most important stats for fantasy owners heading into the following week. With 15 of 16 games from Week 4 in the books, here are the five stats you need to know:
1. Deshaun Watson just joined Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston as the only rookie quarterbacks to total five touchdowns in a single game.
Watson ranks behind just Russell Wilson in fantasy points scored over the past two weeks. Granted, it was in back-to-back soft matchups, but Watson looks like a revelation. From a fantasy perspective, I think it’s time to accept Watson as at least a low-end QB1 moving forward. Watson will have a high floor on a week-to-week basis, thanks to his strengths as a runner. He currently leads all quarterbacks in rushing yardage, and is averaging 30.3 pass attempts and 5.7 rushing attempts per game over his three starts. Since 1945, there have been 66 instances of a quarterback averaging at least five rushing attempts and 25 pass attempts per game in a single season. Collectively, these quarterbacks averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game (which would have ranked 10th-best at the position last season).
In terms of real NFL value, I’m a little more pessimistic. Although nearly beating the Patriots in Week 3 is impressive, as was beating a division rival by 43 points in Week 4, but what’s concerning is Watson is currently our 30th-highest-graded quarterback, ranking ahead of only Cam Newton and DeShone Kizer among qualified quarterbacks.
2. Cam Newton just posted his best passer rating (130.8) in a single game since 2015.
Heading into Week 4, Newton’s prior 16-game stretch was comparable to Brock Osweiler’s 2016 season. He posted just 167 yards passing with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in a soft matchup against the Saints last week, who were also without their top cornerback, rookie Marshon Lattimore. Newton averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game over his prior five games, but scored 34.0 fantasy points on Sunday — his highest total since 2015.
“Is the old Cam Newton back?”
No, probably not. He’s still our second-worst-graded quarterback for the season. I also highlighted the Patriots as a team to stream against earlier in the week, based on fantasy points allowed over expectation, and they certainly did not disappoint. The Patriots travel on the road to face a more-capable passer in Jameis Winston in Week 5, who is going to be fairly chalky (and rightfully so) in DFS.
3. Jared Goff averaged 8.1 fantasy points per start under Jeff Fisher, but 17.5 fantasy points per start under Sean McVay. Todd Gurley averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game under Fisher, but is averaging 30.4 fantasy points per game under McVay. [Chart]
As impressive as this year’s rookie class has been for fantasy (Watson, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, etc.), rookie head coach McVay’s 3-1 start to the 2017 season is right up there with any of them (okay, maybe any of them but Hunt). The Rams are averaging 35.5 points scored per game, which is more than double their average of 14.0 last season. Goff went from finishing worst in passer rating last season to ranking third-best this year, seeing his total climb by 48.4. Gurley is averaging 62.5 yards per game more than his prior career average.
As I wrote about earlier this offseason, the Gurley resurgence shouldn’t be too surprising, considering he spent his first two seasons under a head coach with an atrocious track record with running backs. “In the entire history of the NFL, there are 320 instances of a running back accumulating at least 275 carries in a single season. Among these 320 seasons, Gurley’s 2016 season ranked fifth-worst in yards per carry,” I wrote then. Four of the 12 worst seasons came from a running back coached by Fisher. I don’t feel like that’s just a coincidence.
Goff’s resurgence has been slightly more surprising. Heading into the season, I had only one reason for optimism (other than the fact that he was just a rookie). My data suggested he also was playing behind the worst pass-blocking offensive line in the league. Adding our No. 2-graded pass-blocking tackle in Andrew Whitworth this offseason clearly made a difference, as Goff went from 3.7 sacks per game in 2016 (most) to 1.0 so far this year.
I know it’s just a small four-game sample, but I’m buying into this new and improved Rams offense.
4. Ezekiel Elliott leads all running backs in routes run per game (30.8). Last season he averaged 17.7.
For a running back, 30.8 routes run per game is a massive number. For perspective, wide receiver Julio Jones averaged 32.3 routes run per game last year, and Jarvis Landry averaged 31.6. Elliott is currently on pace to reach 72 targets by the end of the season, which dwarfs his 39.5-target pace from last season. As I wrote about in the offseason, passing-game involvement is the key for Elliott to reach David Johnson– or Le’Veon Bell-esque upside. Encouragingly, it looks like he’s got it.
5. Dez Bryant has run 71.0 percent of his routes lined up against cornerbacks who graded out among the top-30 at their position in 2016.
The league’s most cornerback-sensitive wide receiver has had (easily) the toughest cornerback schedule to start the season. Bryant ranks fourth in targets (37), sixth in yards in air (474), first in targets inside the 10-yard-line (six), and first in end zone targets (eight). Clearly the opportunity has been there – as he ranks second among all receivers in expected fantasy points (73.8), but, in highlighting his inefficiency, he’s scored 24.5 fantasy points below that (worst). Luckily for Bryant, his brutal draw of elite cornerbacks has subsided, and he gets set to face a Green Bay Packers defense that allowed the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers last year and ranked last in team PFF coverage grade. The three Green Bay cornerbacks playing the most snaps lined up outside (where Bryant runs 72 percent of his routes) all grade out among our 30-worst at the position. Bryant feels chalky for Week 5, as only the 10th-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.