Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy stats to know from Week 2

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 17: Running back Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks rushes against the San Francisco 49ers during the third quarter of the game at CenturyLink Field on September 17, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. The Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers 12-9. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

We’re through two weeks of the NFL — and fantasy — season, meaning we are to the point now that our data can come from inside the season, and not as heavily on the season-ago stats that might or might not still be relevant. That said, we aren't yet to the point where we can learn our lessons entirely from this season, as our sample sizes are still very small.

As I’ll do every week in this space, I’m taking a look back at Sunday’s games to find five of the most important stats for fantasy owners heading into the following week. We’re through 15 of 16 Week 2 games, and here are those stats for this week.

1. Waiver wire running backs impress again:
A) In Week 2, Tarik Cohen out-touched Jordan Howard 15 to nine.
B) Javorius Allen played on 63 percent of Ravens’ snaps on Sunday, after seeing 50 percent of the snaps in Week 1.
C) Through two weeks, Chris Carson leads all Seattle running backs in yards from scrimmage with 149. The next-closest running back on the team – C.J. Prosise – has only 33.

If you picked up one of these three running backs in free agency last week, you have to be feeling pretty happy with yourself. Howard went into this game a bit banged up, dealing with a shoulder injury, and was spotted with his arm in a sling after the game. If Howard were to miss time, an immense opportunity would be in line for Cohen.

In Week 2, Allen led the Ravens in carries and saw 71 percent of the team’s running back targets. With left guard Marshal Yanda (our top-graded guard in each of the last three seasons) now out for the year, this could hurt the efficacy of the running game and offense as a whole, or it could help further cement Allen’s place as the team’s primary running back. With a less effective offensive line, the Ravens will need a running back they can trust in pass-blocking (his role 74 percent of the time), and one who can help alleviate pressure by going out for short passes (leads Ravens running backs with 21 routes, 12 more than next-closest). Allen saw 62 targets in 2014 (his rookie season) and seems far and away the most complete back on the roster – at least until the possible (but by no means guaranteed) return of Danny Woodhead.

Compared to Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls, Carson looks like a revelation – and Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll seems to realize it. Lacy was a healthy scratch Sunday while Rawls gained two yards on six carries. Carson, meanwhile, had 20 carries for 96 yards, and was our highest-graded running back (via the run) of the week. It’s still early but it appears safe to presume Carson has locked up the role of primary early-down ball-carrier for the league’s most run-heavy offensive play-caller.

2. Among all receivers through the first two weeks of the season, Dez Bryant ranks second in targets (23), fourth in yards in the air (276), first in end-zone targets (7), and first in Actual Opportunity points (51.4). For perspective, Bryant has three more end-zone targets than the next-closest receiver and 14.9 more Actual Opportunity points than the third-closest receiver. In spite of this, he ranks just 19th in fantasy points with 23.8.

With all that in mind, what’s wrong with Bryant? In spite of immense volume, he’s underwhelmed for fantasy. My theory is this: He’s had a brutal cornerback schedule to start the year, which is amplified by the fact that he’s been the league’s most “cornerback-sensitive” wide receiver for the past three seasons.

So far, Bryant has run 66 of 105 routes lined up against the following cornerbacks (all graded top-seven in coverage last season): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib, and Chris Harris Jr. Unfortunately for Bryant, it doesn’t get any easier next weekend. Against the Cardinals, he’s likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, who, over the past three seasons, ranks best among all cornerbacks in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage. The last time these two faced off, Peterson lined up across from Bryant on 35 of his routes, holding him to just two catches on 10 targets for 15 yards and a score. If you’re forced to start Bryant this week, you might get lucky with a touchdown catch or enough volume to offset the inefficiency, but I’m not optimistic. If you’re looking for a buy-low window to acquire Bryant cheaply, I’d look to make a move in between Week 4’s tough matchup (Trumaine Johnson) and Week 5’s soft matchup against the Green Bay Packers.

3. Tom Brady threw the ball 39 times against the Saints Sunday, for 446 yards and three touchdowns. Brandin Cooks accounted for just 10 percent of Brady’s attempts and eight percent of his total yards. Saints rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore lined up against Cooks on 30 of 39 routes, holding him to just 15 yards on three targets.

This is relevant for several reasons:

First, it looks like Lattimore is who we thought he was, coming out of college as our highest-rated cornerback. He played 598 snaps for Ohio State last season, drawing 40 targets and allowing only 18 completions for 226 yards and a 31.9 opposing passer rating. Through two games, the Saints have allowed 792 passing yards and six passing touchdowns. Lattimore has personally seen eight targets into his coverage, deflecting two and allowing only six to be caught for 61 yards and no touchdowns. His grades are subject to change (pending Monday night and a final review), but as of right now, he’s our second-highest-graded cornerback in coverage this week.

Second, this supports a troubling theory that I’ve had on Cooks for some time – that, like Bryant, he’s very “cornerback-sensitive,” but in a different way, struggling immensely against “speedy” cornerbacks, while beating up on “slower” cornerbacks throughout his career and to an unparalleled degree. I backed this theory up statistically and wrote about it in the offseason here. It makes sense in the context of this matchup, as Lattimore was the third-fastest defensive back at the combine this year, with a 40-yard dash time of 4.36 seconds. If playing in DFS, it’s worth looking at our WR v. CB Chart each week to see how fast the opposing team’s cornerbacks are.

4. Last season, Jack Doyle pass-blocked on 15.2 percent of his passing plays, which ranked eighth-most among all tight ends with at least 50 targets. He averaged 23.2 routes run per game (24th-most). He played on 68.4 percent of the team’s snaps, and amassed a 13.4 percent target market share. Through two weeks in 2017, he has pass-blocked on just 3.0 percent of his passing plays (third-fewest), played on 96 percent of the snaps, averaged 32.0 routes per game (fifth-most), and a 21.6 target market share.

Doyle has seen 11 targets thus far, catching 10 for a team-leading 120 yards. Doyle is serving in a massively valuable role for fantasy with Erik Swoope on injured reserve. Perhaps Doyle’s role changes at some point if Swoope is ever activated off of IR, but as it stands, Doyle is a strong hold in fantasy leagues and has startable upside on a week-to-week basis. As I’ve alluded to earlier this offseason, but feel more confident in saying now, Doyle has easy top-five potential at his position when Andrew Luck returns from a shoulder injury.

5. Jay Ajayi saw 30 touches and played on 94 percent of his team’s snaps in Week 2. Only six times since 2014 has a running back seen at least 30 touches and played on at least 94 percent of their team’s snaps in a game. Five of these instances were from Le'Veon Bell.

From Week 5 (when named the starter), until the end of the regular season, Ajayi played on 71.4 percent of the snaps. Ajayi ranked second in carries (242) over this stretch, but underwhelmed as a receiver, seeing only 27 targets (32nd-most). On Sunday, Ajayi saw 30 touches, which ranked behind only Le’Veon Bell’s 31. This backs up offseason comments made by Adam Gase and his coaching staff following Ajayi’s 2016 finish as our highest-graded and most-efficient running back. Over the summer, Gase had said “Ajayi could get as many as 350 rushing attempts if [he] stays healthy and plays all 16 games.” Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen had added that Ajayi’s receiving skills are “200 percent better [now] than a year ago.” This is notable, because while Ajayi saw just two targets, he stayed on the field for third downs. In my rankings for the rest of the season, I have Ajayi firmly among my top-five running backs – which is exactly where I had him before Week 1. Ajayi is also the “uber-chalk” this week in DFS, up against a woeful Jets team that has surrendered 332 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on 61 carries (5.4 yards per carry) through two games.

By now you might also notice a theme. I’m only bringing up trends that support a prior-held opinion. That’s been my approach in the first few weeks of the fantasy season for a while now. I try not to read too much into the first two weeks of the season, unless they seem to confirm something I’ve already suspected. As FootballGuys writer Adam Harstad had previously discovered, current season production doesn’t start to matter more than preseason ADP until about Week 4.

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit