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Evans: Fantasy Football Passing Report ahead of NFL Week 5

As the NFL becomes more and more pass-heavy, fantasy football managers need to know where and how teams are distributing their targets in the passing game.

Receiver usage data — specifically targets, air yards and routes run — is much better at predicting future receiving production than simply scanning box scores. This passing report analyzes every team’s target, air yard and route run from the previous week so that fantasy managers can make informed decisions with information that's actionable and up to date.

The report includes five categories which are defined as the following:

  • Target: a pass attempt to a receiver
  • Target share: the percentage of targets that a player receives out of his team’s total number of targeted pass attempts
  • Route run %: the percentage of routes run by a receiver out of his team’s total number of passing plays
  • Air yards: the number of yards the ball travels in the air for every pass attempt, measured from the point at which the QB throws the football to the receiver’s location at the spot of the target.
  • Air-yard share: the percentage of air yards a player receives out of his team’s total air yards.

Below is the passing report for every player who saw at least one target in Week 4. Note that the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans are not included, as their Week 4 game was postponed due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

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ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | SF | SEA | TB | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Player Targets Target Share Route Run % Air Yards Air Yard Share
DeAndre Hopkins 9 29% 91% 69 33%
Christian Kirk 5 16% 74% 53 26%
Dan Arnold 4 13% 51% 25 12%
Andy Isabella 3 10% 51% 22 11%
Larry Fitzgerald 3 10% 91% 17 8%
Chase Edmonds 6 19% 43% 11 5%
Jordan Thomas 1 3% 3% 10 5%

The Cardinals' passing attack starts and ends with DeAndre Hopkins, who is seeing nearly one-third of Arizona’s available targets and air yards.

Christian Kirk had an encouraging return from injury and has big-play upside on his targets, but he will be very much boom or bust if he continues his 16% target share.

Larry Fitzgerald continues to run wind sprints, with a high route rate and low target share. Hopefully the Cardinals turn some of his snaps over to the explosive Andy Isabella, who has an 8-117-2 receiving line on just 10 targets this season.

Chase Edmonds saw a lot of pass-catching work at the expense of Kenyan Drake, which would torpedo Drake’s fantasy value even further should it continue.

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