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Fantasy Football: NFL Week 13 predictions for every quarterback

Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We’re more than halfway through the 2021 NFL season, and life is good. Let’s attempt to predict the future.

What follows are my best guesses for every starting quarterback’s defining Week 13 storyline. This will be accomplished through a superlative format, identifying who is most likely to accomplish whatever.

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Please don’t confuse this as an all-encompassing preview of the position, as the goal is merely to get a solid preview of the game’s most important position and attempt to learn a thing or two along the way.

Most likely to make the defense pay if given too much time: Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott at New Orleans Saints

Prescott has had some down moments in 2021, namely when the Cowboys have been forced to play without all-world LT Tyron Smith or the offense’s top-two receivers.

The one scenario that has consistently brought out the best in Prescott throughout the season has been when the sixth-year quarterback is given too much time to throw. The following metrics denote Prescott’s performance when getting the ball out of his hands in 2.5 or more seconds:

  • PFF passing grade: 84.6 (No. 2 among 38 qualified quarterbacks)
  • QB rating: 106.7 (No. 2)
  • Yards per attempt: 8.9 (No. 10)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 71.8% (No. 13)

The Saints rank just 25th in overall pressure rate and 30th in quick pressure rate (getting to the quarterback in under 2.5 seconds). Failure to improve in this facet of the game could be particularly detrimental against a true connoisseur of the quarterback position such as Prescott.

Most likely to run his way to a QB1 fantasy performance: New Orleans Saints QB Taysom Hill vs. Dallas Cowboys

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has reported Hill is taking first-team reps in practice and expected to start on Thursday night barring a setback.

Hill, at least, put up some solid numbers during his four starts at quarterback last season.

  • PFF passing grade: 68.9 (No. 29 among 44 qualified quarterbacks)
  • Big-time throw rate: 2.5% (tied for No. 40)
  • Turnover-worthy throw rate: 4.5% (tied for No. 34)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.7 (tied for No. 11)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 82.6% (No. 1)

Let’s be clear, Hill didn’t accomplish any of this in style. Still, Hill’s penchant for taking off and running on his own made him a fantasy darling of sorts during his 3-1 stint as the Saints’ starter. Overall, Hill peeled off overall QB3, QB11, QB7 and QB9 fantasy performances in his four weeks under center on a full-time basis. His 16-game rushing pace extrapolated from those four games is 156 carries.

Of course, that could be more difficult than usual if stud Cowboys rookie Micah Parsons continues to absolutely wreak havoc: Parsons is PFF’s highest-graded pass-rusher (92.9) regardless of position or experience through 12 weeks. Madness.

Most likely to uncork at least one b-e-a-utiful deep ball: Indianapolis Colts QB Carson Wentz at Houston Texans

Only Matthew Stafford (six) has more completions on passes thrown at least 40 yards downfield than Wentz (five) this season. Generally, good things have happened when Wentz has had enough time to uncork one down the field.

Up next is a Texans defense that ranks dead last in yards per attempt allowed on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season. It’d make sense if Jonathan Taylor is able to instill his will on the ground, but Wentz and company should make their downfield opportunities count in a major way this week.

Related content for you: NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Targets: All League Sizes & Scoring Types via Andrew Erickson

Most likely to inexplicably flirt with a fantasy QB1 performance: Houston Texans QB Tyrod Taylor vs. Indianapolis Colts

Yes, Taylor and the Texans have generally been a laughing stock this season. Also yes, this hasn’t stopped Taylor from generally supplying some fantasy success:

  • Week 1: fantasy QB11
  • Week 2 (injured): QB23
  • Week 9: QB26
  • Week 11: QB12
  • Week 12 (pre-MNF): QB12

The largest factor working in Taylor’s favor has obviously been the rushing floor, as he’s found the end zone on three separate occasions as a ball carrier while averaging a more-than-solid 27 rush yards per game. Don’t be surprised if Taylor puts up some sneaky-solid box score totals against the Colts’ 26th-ranked defense in fewest fantasy points per game allowed to the position.

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Most likely to eviscerate one of the league’s worst secondaries: Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins at Detroit Lions

Pick a pass defense stat, any stat, and the Lions probably rank toward the bottom of the league in it.

  • Yards per attempt: 8.25 (tied for No. 31)
  • Explosive pass play rate: 17.4% (No. 31)
  • QB rating: 105.5 (No. 24)
  • Pass touchdown rate: 5.3% (No. 28)

The biggest obstacle facing Cousins could be a lack of overall volume if the run game is able to instill its will. Still, Dalvin Cook‘s (shoulder) potential absence could lead to a pass-first approach. It’d make sense to especially lean on the aerial attack this week against a Lions secondary that doesn’t have a cornerback graded inside of PFF’s top-60 players in coverage grade.

Most likely to refrain from taking any sort of real chances: Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff vs. Minnesota Vikings

Goff joins Tua Tagovailoa and Mike White as the league’s only signal-callers with an average target depth under seven yards. Nobody has thrown the ball short of the first down marker on a higher rate of their pass attempts than Goff (60.9%). There’s a full 4.3% difference between Goff and the next-closest quarterback in terms of passing yards that were gained after the catch.

This Lions offense simply doesn’t force defenses to even respect the deep ball. To be fair, the Lions haven’t exactly been good at hitting the deep ball anyway, as nobody has a lower adjusted completion rate on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield than Goff (21.2%).

The Vikings, like the Lions, don’t exactly boast a scary cornerback room but just realize Goff probably won’t go out of his way to test this group downfield anyway. 

Most likely to be overwhelmed by pressure: New York Giants QB Daniel Jones at Miami Dolphins

This Dolphins defense ranks first in overall pressure rate (50.3%) and second in quick pressure rate (27.3%) after 12 weeks of action. No defense has blitzed on more total snaps (218). This could be especially detrimental to Jones, who ranks just 36th, 33rd and 28th in QB rating, PFF passing grade and yards per attempt when blitzed this season.

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Getting any of Sterling Shepard (quad), Kadarius Toney (quad) or Kyle Rudolph (ankle) back in action would help matters but just realize this Giants offense hasn’t shown the ability to handle the blitz. New York's offense hasn’t reached even 305 total yards of offense since Week 5 so don’t expect it to put together anything too impressive in this rather brutal Week 13 spot.

Most likely to enable his No. 1 receivers to great heights: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. New York Giants

Tagovailoa has the Dolphins rolling with four consecutive wins. Yes, they have come against the Texans, Ravens, Jets and Panthers. Also yes, a win is a win the last time I checked.

Whether or not the Dolphins are a real playoff contender is a discussion for another day, but the good news is Tagovailoa has largely enabled the team’s No. 6 overall draft pick to great heights. Jaylen Waddle is on pace for 109 receptions, 1,075 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s barely missed with his former collegiate quarterback under center this season:

  • Week 1: 4 receptions-61 yards-1 TD, PPR WR26
  • Week 6: 10-70-2, WR4
  • Week 7: 7-83-0, WR16
  • Week 8: 4-29-0, WR60
  • Week 11: 8-65-0, WR11
  • Week 12: 9-137-1, WR1

No matchup has a lower game total than Giants-Dolphins (41.5) in Week 13 but don’t be surprised if Tagovailoa enables Waddle to a more-than-stellar performance.

Most likely to take his divisional rival to the woodshed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady at Atlanta Falcons

Brady has faced off against the Falcons on three occasions since taking his talents to Tampa Bay:

  • 2020, Week 15: 31/45, 390 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, fantasy QB11
  • 2020, Week 17: 26/41, 399 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, QB2
  • 2021, Week 2: 24/36, 276 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, QB3

This secondary isn’t atrocious by any stretch, as only the Cowboys have thrown for more than 300 yards against the Falcons while No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell is PFF’s third-highest graded player at his position this season.

And yet, it’s tough to see the Brady bunch doing anything other than putting up copious numbers through the air, particularly with Antonio Brown (ankle) tentatively expected to suit up for the first time since Week 6.

Most likely to have some injury-induced success: Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ryan and the Falcons’ 26th-ranked offensive line in PFF pass-blocking grade could struggle against the Buccaneers’ third-ranked defense in pressure rate. However, Tampa Bay boasts the league’s single-most banged up cornerback room at the moment.

Dean and Davis grade out as PFF’s No. 7 and No. 17 best cornerback this season, as there’s truly not a hole in this group when everyone is healthy. Unfortunately, this latter checkbox likely won’t be completed by next Sunday, which means Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage might have an easier time than expected.

Most likely to put up a fantasy QB1 performance: Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts at New York Jets

Last week marked the first time in 16 career starts that Hurts failed to turn in a top-12 fantasy performance when playing all four quarters. This was hardly his fault, as Eagles receivers dropped no fewer than three touchdowns during the course of the afternoon.

Ultimately, Hurts’ rushing upside is what keeps him firmly in the upside QB1 conversation. He’s now converted 168 carries into 967 yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 career starts. These figures rank second, fifth and fourth among top single-season rushing marks among all quarterbacks in NFL history.

In 2021, only Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, James Conner, Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott have more fantasy points from purely rushing production than Hurts. This unique dual-threat skillset could be on full display against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to “running backs.”

Most likely to continue to ride the struggle bus: New York Jets QB Zach Wilson vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Wilson made one absolutely awesome throw in Week 12. Otherwise, he wasn't very impressive. Credit to the Jets on their 21-14 win over the Texans, but Wilson still showed a lack of command in the pocket, taking four sacks and “throwing” one rather horrendous interception.

At the end of the day, Wilson has functioned as the league’s worst rookie quarterback this season.

The Eagles rank 10th in quick pressure rate, so Wilson will need to improve upon his standing as the league’s second-most prone quarterback to turnover-worthy plays in order to make it out of this matchup alive. 

PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart is a fantasy football tool that you can use to help you set the best lineups. You can toggle between showing the Matchup Advantage column against all projected coverage, or the individual defenders.

Most likely to resume functioning as the league’s most-entertaining signal-caller: Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray at Chicago Bears

Murray is tentatively expected to suit up for the first time since Week 8 following the Cardinals’ bye week. His first eight games of the season were nothing short of remarkable, as he’s in a class of his own when it comes to combining frequent elite throws with minimal bone-headed mistakes.

Credit to Colt McCoy for keeping the ship afloat during Murray’s absence, but the best version of the league’s fifth-ranked scoring offense should be back in action this Sunday. Get your popcorn ready.

Most likely to not go out of his way to push the ball downfield: Chicago Bears QB Andy Dalton vs. Arizona Cardinals

Just five quarterbacks have thrown at least 56% of their passes short of the sticks this season:

Not exactly great company to find yourself in. Complicating matters is a date with Chandler Jones and company, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Hopefully, Justin Fields (ribs) is back before too long, as the rookie’s version of bad is far more entertaining than Dalton.

Most likely to look like a world-beater when throwing deep: Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert at Cincinnati Bengals

Herbert has been nothing short of unstoppable when throwing the ball at least 20 yards downfield this season:

  • PFF passing grade: 92.8 (No. 7 among 45 qualified quarterbacks)
  • QB rating: 122.3 (No. 2)
  • Yards per attempt: 15.7 (No. 12)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 54.5% (No. 7)

The problem is that only Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan have thrown a lower rate of their passes 20-plus yards downfield. It makes sense for some quarterbacks to refrain from testing the defense deep all that often, but not for one like Herbert, who has limitless arm talent.

Herbert and company should plan on taking their deep shots at Eli Apple (PFF’s 101st ranked cornerback in overall grade) instead of Chidobe Awuzie (11th) and Mike Hilton (19th).

Most likely to thrive when targeting his wide receivers: Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The best wide receiver room in the NFL resides in Tampa Bay, but Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd certainly deserve to be a part of the second-place conversation. Burrow has taken advantage of his talented receivers all season long, posting more-than-solid numbers in PFF passing grade (90.3, No. 11 among 39 qualified quarterbacks) as well as yards per attempt (9.4, No. 5) when specifically targeting his wide receivers.

Neither Chris Harris (PFF’s 47th-highest graded corner) nor Asante Samuel Jr. (53rd) should be expected to completely shut down Chase and company. Don’t be surprised if both offenses put up all kinds of points in this one, as Chargers-Bengals (50.5) is currently tied with Buccaneers-Falcons for Week 13's highest game total.

Most likely to not get by with a little help from his friends: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence at Los Angeles Rams

Only Justin Herbert (27) has had to deal with more drops than Lawrence (21) this season. The rookie has truly made a number of great throws that have turned into incompletions.

Nov 28, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs with the ball during the second half against the Atlanta Falcons at TIAA Bank Field. Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t expect Lawrence’s luck to change against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and company this week. Hopefully, the Jaguars have a better Year 2 plan for the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick.

Most likely to have another sneaky-bad performance: Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Stafford has made a habit of putting up fairly awesome counting numbers without necessarily passing the eye test this season. Overall, he joins Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks with three games in which they threw for 300-plus yards, scored three or more touchdowns and posted a PFF passing grade under 80.0.

It’d make sense if the Rams manage to find the end zone at will against the Jaguars’ 25th-ranked scoring defense, although problems could persist if this offensive line can’t handle the league’s sixth-ranked defense in pressure rate. Stafford is PFF’s 27th-ranked quarterback when under pressure this season and failure to keep him upright could be detrimental ahead of this perceived smash spot.

Most likely to fall back to Earth because he can’t play much better: Washington Football Team QB Taylor Heinicke at Las Vegas Raiders

All Heinicke did in Weeks 10-11 was complete 78% of his passes while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns against zero interceptions across two wins versus the Buccaneers and Panthers. Only Mac Jones had a higher PFF passing grade during this stretch.

Pre-Week 12, Heinicke ranked 25th in big-time throw rate and 29th in turnover-worthy play rate among 37 qualified quarterbacks. He’s generally still struggled to provide a constant dose of “elite” throws while continuing to make too many mistakes for anyone’s liking. Still, America loves a comeback story, and Heinicke’s recent play has been nothing short of masterful.

There's a floor here, but Heinicke has posted five top-12 performances in fantasy land through 11 weeks of action. He remains firmly on the streamer map ahead of next Sunday against the Raiders’ bottom-12 defense in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Most likely to benefit from having an ace field-stretching WR on the field: Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr vs. Washington Football Team

Carr has posted the following QB rating by wide receiver this season:

Clearly, Carr has been pretty good regardless of who he’s targeting, but this offense has been at its best when he’s pushed the ball downfield to the group’s speedy field-stretcher. Nobody has more yards (910) or touchdowns (seven) than Carr when throwing at least 20 yards downfield this season.

The Football Team ranks 29th and 30th in yards per attempt and explosive pass play rate when receivers have been targeted 20-plus yards downfield. This one could get ugly if Carr is able again link up with Jackson on their deep shot plays.

Most likely to make the impossible come to life at least once or twice: Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes, Jackson’s four-interception effort against the Browns on Sunday night was fairly horrific. Also yes, he made a pair of absurd throws to Mark Andrews that showed just how frustrating it can be defending him for 60 minutes.

Of course, this Ravens offense needs to show some enhanced efficiency down the road if it wants to advance deep into January. Overall, the Ravens have scored just 26 combined points in their last two games with Jackson under center against the Dolphins and Browns.

At the moment, only Giants-Dolphins (41.5) has a lower game total than Ravens-Steelers (44). Week 13 might present another defensive slugfest for the Ravens. 

Most likely to function as the NFL’s single-worst starting quarterback: Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore Ravens

Pick any passing metric, and Roethlisberger likely finds himself near the bottom of the league in it.

  • PFF passing grade: 56.9 (No. 36 among 38 qualified quarterbacks)
  • Big-time throw rate: 3.6% (No. 24)
  • Turnover-worthy play rate: 4.6% (No. 35)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.6 (No. 31)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 73.3% (No. 28)

To summarize, Roethlisberger has been inaccurate while not making many “elite” throws and racking up bad decisions. Other than that, he’s been great.

Up next is the Ravens’ blitz-happy defense that has allowed just 23 combined points over the past two weeks. Don’t expect Roethlisberger to get right in this spot, or really ever at this point. Calling the 39-year-old quarterback washed is offensive to washing machines.

Most likely to stay hot: San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo at Seattle Seahawks

Garoppolo has played his best ball of the year in recent weeks:

  • Week 1: 73.2 PFF passing grade
  • Week 2: 57.0
  • Week 3: 52.7
  • Week 4: 56.0
  • Week 7: 52.2
  • Week 8: 77.6
  • Week 9: 79.3
  • Week 10: 79.4
  • Week 11: 69.0
  • Week 12: 66.6

Garoppolo is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback since the 49ers’ Week 7 bye, so credit to the veteran for turning the ship around after a rather brutal start to the season.

Up next is a Seahawks defense that has performed admirably in recent weeks during the offense’s struggles. Overcoming Deebo Samuel‘s (groin) potential absence won’t be easy, but Garoppolo has the 49ers competing for a playoff berth after their rough 2-4 start to the season.

Most likely to look like a far worse version of his usual self: Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers

The before and after injury versions of Wilson tell quite the story:

  • Before injury: 88.8 PFF passing grade, 11 big-time throws, 0 turnover-worthy plays, 9.6 yards per attempt
  • After injury (pre-MNF): 43.8 PFF passing grade, 1 big-time throw, 3 turnover-worthy plays, 5.8 yards per attempt

Before Monday night, the Seahawks had scored just 13 total points since their Week 9 bye and have won one game (against the Jaguars) since Week 4. To say this team is in panic mode would be a massive understatement.

Wilson has failed to crack even 185 passing yards in his last two performances against the 49ers. It seems like a matter of when, not if, the Seahawks put a merciful end to 2021 for Mr. Unlimited.

Most likely to largely ignore his team’s top-two highest-priced receivers: Denver Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater at Kansas City Chiefs

Someone might want to let Bridgewater know that the team has nearly 100 million reasons to get Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick more involved in the offense. Bridgewater has put forward the following target distribution in the Broncos’ five games with a healthy Jerry Jeudy:

This isn’t meant as a slight to Jeudy, Fant or even Okwuegbunam, as it’s just disappointing to see Sutton largely reduced to an afterthought in this offense. There were reasons to take issue with Bridgewater even before targets became an issue, but now things are just getting rather ridiculous.

The Chiefs have allowed 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, so Bridgewater might need to finally use all the resources at his disposal in order for the Broncos to pull off the upset.

Most likely to continue to function as the worst version of himself: Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Denver Broncos

It’s not like Mahomes hasn’t put forward some awesome performances this season — just ask the Eagles or the Raiders, who each surrendered five passing touchdowns to the fifth-year signal-caller in their respective matchups.

Still, we’re entering Week 13 and it’s pretty clear that this has been, by far, the worst season of Mahomes’ career.

  • 2021: 71.1 PFF passing grade, 6.9 yards per attempt, 89.9 QB rating
  • 2020: 90.4 PFF passing grade, 8.0 yards per attempt, 102.4 QB rating
  • 2019: 82.3 PFF passing grade, 8.0 yards per attempt, 96.5 QB rating
  • 2018: 92.8 PFF passing grade, 8.5 yards per attempt, 110.3 QB rating

The Broncos have been the league’s sixth-stingiest defense in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so it’d make sense if the tide doesn’t truly turn for Mahomes and this passing game for at least another week.

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Most likely to put forward an efficient performance that, at times, might seem boring: New England Patriots QB Mac Jones at Buffalo Bills

It’s not Jones’ fault his offense hasn’t needed to lean on him as heavily as some others. Still, let’s not crown him as the next GOAT just yet. Jones always figured to be the most pro-ready quarterback in the 2021 class, and the Patriots’ league-best scoring defense has allowed him to be, at times, overly conservative without much of a worry.

Just look at the company Jones is in regarding the league’s quarterbacks who throw short of the sticks most often:

The Patriots are averaging the seventh-most points per game in the NFL and have ripped off six straight wins, so they don’t need to change their strategy. Quarterbacks aren't created equal in terms of the level of difficulty they’re forced to operate in.

Monday night should be a fantastic test against the Bills’ league-best defense in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing signal-callers.

Most likely to either ball out or play rather terrible: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen vs. New England Patriots

Allen continues to do his best Jameis Winston impression by either completely crushing it, or struggling mightily, with seemingly nothing in between::

  • Week 1: 72.6 PFF passing grade (No. 16 among quarterbacks with 10-plus dropbacks)
  • Week 2: 45.4 (No. 30)
  • Week 3: 85.5 (No. 3)
  • Week 4: 62.5 (No. 24)
  • Week 5: 92.8 (No. 1)
  • Week 6: 81.3 (No. 7)
  • Week 7: Bye
  • Week 8: 72.3 (No. 10)
  • Week 9: 50.8 (No. 24)
  • Week 10: 86.4 (No. 2)
  • Week 11: 40.5 (No. 31)
  • Week 12: 81.5 (No. 3)

One game between the 10th and 24th highest-graded quarterback is the definition of volatile. Obviously, the Bills are capable of some extreme highs when everything is clicking, but it’s tough to figure out which version of Allen will show up on a week-to-week basis this season.

A lot has changed in the AFC West since the Bills blew out the Patriots 38-9 in New England back in Week 16 of last season. Don’t be surprised if next Monday night’s matchup decides who will be crowned champion of the division in 2021.

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