Leverage PFF’s Week 11 fantasy football rankings and DFS ownership projections as close to lock as possible. Knowing what your competitors are going to do ahead of time provides an edge that simply not enough DFS gamers take advantage of. Focus your attention in cash formats on high-rostered value players and pivot to lower-rostered ceiling players in GPPs. And, as always, leverage late swaps before the late afternoon games kick-off.
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Identifying players across all positions with low rostership projections who rank high in PFF’s fantasy projections, fantasy football rankings, high-value targets and routes run will lead to strong ROI weeks. CeeDee Lamb stuck out in the high-value report last week, so it wasn’t surprising to see him blow up against the Atlanta Falcons.
And as a special treat, we've included data graphs that have FanDuel or DraftKings salaries crossed with expected fantasy point totals. Enjoy!
Related content for you: Week 11 WR/CB mismatches and shadow coverages to leverage in DFS & fantasy football leagues via Ian Hartitz
High Tier ($6,500-plus)
Using a mid-priced quarterback who has posted relatively high expected fantasy points per game has been the leading indicator of the next GPP-winning quarterback, especially when they are facing an opposing quarterback who fits similar criteria.
In terms of matchups that are projected to be high-scoring based on the offensive pace of play: Kansas City Chiefs–Dallas Cowboys (first vs. second), Carolina Panthers–Washington Football Team (11th vs. third) and Buffalo Bills–Indianapolis Colts (fourth vs. 20th) rank atop the main slate.
After a two-week hiatus, I’m going back to Jalen Hurts ($6,800). His streak of top-12 finishes in four quarters of play has extended to 12 games, making him a secure play in 50/50 contests. His 55 rushing yards per game is unparalleled by any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson, and the matchup is solid this week. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most passing yards to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
But if you have money to burn, just go up $400 more to play Dak Prescott in both cash and tournaments alike. There’s a super high chance that Chiefs-Cowboys is a high-scoring affair based on each team’s high-end pace of play. Prescott and his pass-catchers are cheaper than Patrick Mahomes ($7,600) and his weapons.
The two quarterbacks priced at or above $8K are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. They rank first and second in fantasy points per game, so the pricing is warranted. However, I much prefer Jackson over Allen because the former should be rostered less frequently, has easier stacking partners, and the Chicago Bears rank last in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks since Week 7.
Allen will take on the Indianapolis Colts’ heavy Cover 3 defense, and he has struggled against the scheme this season. His 77.4 passer rating versus Cover 3 ranks 29th among 35 qualifying quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow ($6,600) at sub-5% is the best late-swap option in the late afternoon games. The Las Vegas Raiders rank third in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks over the last four weeks, and their heavy reliance on Cover 3 bodes well for Burrow.
Burrow is PFF’s fourth-highest graded quarterback (85.0) against Cover 3 defenses this season.
Low Tier ($6,500 and under)
Fields has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in back-to-back starts. The rookie is finally hitting his stride due to rushing for more yards. He has totaled 148 yards on the ground over the past two weeks while averaging 57 rushing yards per game over his past four starts.
He’s a legitimate option off the waiver wire based on his rushing ability alone versus the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. The Ravens rank fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.
Tagovailoa did not start last Thursday night due to a lingering finger issue but was re-inserted into the lineup after a Jacoby Brissett injury. The second-year quarterback played well (12.2 yards per attempt), which he has done all season when healthy.
Head coach Brian Flores is giving Tagovailoa the go-ahead to start in Week 11 against the New York Jets.
The Jets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in their past four games, and Tagovailoa has averaged 19.9 fantasy points in his four complete games.
Newton is PFF’s DFS optimizer‘s top value because he projects extremely favorably versus the Washington Football Team, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and just lost their best defensive player, Chase Young, to a torn ACL.
With rushing upside and a concentrated offense at Newtons’ disposal, he should be sprinkled in GPP lineups.
FANDUEL QUARTERBACK VALUES
High Tier ($8,000-Plus)
Christian McCaffrey is a smart play in cash contests at $8,900. The Panthers starting running back has reclaimed his rightful spot atop the Week 11 running back rankings after going over 100 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games despite playing fewer than 60% of Carolina's offensive snaps.
He has been targeted on 43% of his routes over the past two weeks — the No. 2 mark in the league. It just goes to show that when McCaffrey is on the field, he is getting the rock.
With his touches also increasing from a week ago (18 vs. 23), McCaffrey is trending to go nuclear in Week 11 with a 30-touch game well within his range of outcomes.
Above $8,000, it’s between Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor after CMC. Neither is very appealing in cash contests because their matchups aren’t ideal. Nevertheless, I lean toward Cook ($8,200) based on his superior routes share and because he is due for positive touchdown regression.
Middle Tier (Between $8,000 & $5,500)
Assuming Nick Chubb ($7,800) is back and healthy from his stint on COVID/IR, it’s impossible to get away from him in a plus-matchup versus the Detroit Lions. The Browns running back posted his best game of the year in Week 9, rushing for 137 yards and two touchdowns en route to 30-plus fantasy points.
Cleveland owns the biggest OL/DL matchup advantage of the week, making it supremely likely Chubb has a ceiling game. And, if Chubb is not activated off the COVID-19 list, D’Ernest Johnson is the lock of all locks at just $5,600.
For leverage off the chalky pass-catchers in the Chiefs-Cowboys shootout, just play Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700). He has a great matchup versus Kansas City’s 30th-graded run defense, and Elliott is very involved in Dallas' passing game, making him game script-proof.
People would rather go to therapy than play Joe Mixon at $7,600 in DFS. The Bengals running back has a great matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders, and he ranks third in fantasy points per game since Week 6 (22.8).
After touching the ball 36 times on Sunday, you’d think D’Andre Swift would be priced higher than $7,000. Alas, savvy DFS gamers will take full advantage of the mispriced running back after he ran a route on an absurd 91% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks in Week 10. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs over the last four weeks.
Dillon is going to become the Packers’ new three-down workhorse with Aaron Jones sidelined due to an MCL injury. We have seen him used as a receiver out of the backfield throughout the season, and he seems destined to take on Jones’ top-four running back route participation. Patrick Taylor Jr. is the other Packers running back of consequence, but at worst, he just takes Dillon’s previous role, which was running a route on 25% of Green Bay's passing plays.
Dillon is looking at a potential top-five route share, which sets him up to smash this week.
Conner salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown in Week 10, which he has done all season, so go right back to him with his price suppressed. Last week, he dominated the snap share (82%) and routes run per dropback (58%), setting him up to produce versus the Seattle Seahawks, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
The GPP pivot off Dillon/Conner at a similar salary is Josh Jacobs ($6,000). He doesn’t have elite passing-game usage, but it’s certainly better than it was at the beginning of the season. The Raiders running back has at least three catches in five of his last six games and has run a route on 47% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks. Jacobs has run more routes than Kenyan Drake over the last four weeks despite missing an entire half of one contest with an injury.
Look for his role in the passing game to continue on an upward trajectory versus the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the second-most receptions to running backs this season.
The Jets have allowed the most fantasy points per game by a wide margin — nine more than the next closest team. The situation sets up Gaskin to bounce back after a disappointing Thursday night performance last week. Gaskin is also due for positive touchdown regression after going 0-for-2 on his goal-line carries in Week 10.
David Montgomery is the cheapest workhorse RB on DraftKings at $5,500. He returned in Week 9 after a four-week hiatus, which regulated rookie standout Khalil Herbert to bench duties. Montgomery ran a route on 73% of Justin Fields’ dropbacks, played 85% of the snaps and out-touched Herbert (15-to-4). He converted his opportunities into 80 yards from scrimmage.
Start him if you have him in a solid spot versus the Baltimore Ravens, who rank 26th in explosive run rate allowed to running backs this season.
Low Tier (Less Than $5,500)
Darrel Williams’ $5,400 salary was made with the idea that Clyde Edwards-Helaire would return from injured reserve (IR). However, Andy Reid has said that they may keep CEH out through their Week 12 bye week, setting up Williams for a three-down role this week.
Since Williams took over starting duties in the Kansas City Chiefs backfield in Week 6, he ranks 13th in fantasy points per game (17.8), 11th in expected fantasy points per game (18.7) and first in receptions (24).
D’Onta Foreman ($4,900) is the lowest you can go at running back, and it’s a leap of faith play. Foreman led the Titans’ backfield with 11 carries to Adrian Peterson’s eight in Week 10. He also played one more snap (21) than Peterson to go along with two receptions for 48 receiving yards.
Foreman is my highest-ranked Titans running back against the Houston Texans’ porous run defense in Week 11. Not only is it a revenge game for Foreman, but Houston ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed to the position this season.
FANDUEL RUNNING BACK VALUES
Alpha Tier ($7,500-Plus)
As usual, Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and Davante Adams ($8,400) are sitting atop the wide receiver player pool. Based on each player’s expected fantasy points per game (21.2 vs. 18.9) and projected game total (55.5 vs. 49), Hill looks like the superior option despite being $200 cheaper.
A.J. Brown ($7,700) is my next favorite option even after a one-catch, 16-yard box score in Week 10. The Titans' alpha wide receiver went 0-for-2 on deep shots from Ryan Tannehill, so his fantasy day could have been drastically different had those connected. More importantly, Brown leads the NFL in air-yard share (49%), ranks fourth in target share (29%) and is No. 2 in target rate per route (30%) since Week 7.
He is set up to go nuclear versus a porous Houston Texans defense. Houston ranks second-to-last in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs over the last four weeks. On the year, the Texans rank 28th in yards per target allowed to opposing wideouts.
Can anybody stop Deebo Samuel? The San Francisco 49ers‘ No. 1 wide receiver has battled through injuries in recent weeks, but his on-field production would tell no such story. The $7.8K-priced wide receiver’s 28% target share ranks third in the NFL this season. Look for him to continue wreaking havoc against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank fifth in receptions allowed to wide receivers this season.
A $7,600-priced CeeDee Lamb is practically unavoidable in such a high-scoring environment versus the Kansas City Chiefs. The second-year wide receiver has pulled away from the rest of the Dallas Cowboys pass-catchers, leading the team in targets and air yards over the last four weeks.
High Tier (Between $7,500 & $6,000)
Nevertheless, don’t stubbornly play Lamb as the late afternoon window approaches if the early-afternoon lineups are doing no favors for your lineup. A great forward-thinking late swap is Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase ($7,200). He ranks second in expected fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. Over that time, Chase has run a route on 98% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks while commanding a 26% target share (eighth).
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a player with that usage and slate-breaking ability — two 30-point games — at sub-8% rostership.
The sediment remains true for the Ravens' No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown. His targets and air yards have been off the charts the last four weeks. He ranks first in targets of 20-plus air yards despite playing just three games. His 29% overall target share ranks second only to Keenan Allen (31%) over that time span.
Needless to say, his poor stat output in Week 10 — six catches for 37 yards — is merely a blip on the radar. Get exposure to him at $7,100 in a plus-matchup against the Chicago Bears, who rank fifth in deep ball rate faced and 28th in PFF coverage grade versus deep pass attempts.
Welp, looks like nobody wants to play Amari Cooper at $6,200. Can’t say I blame the field, as Cooper has just two games this season with more than 16 DraftKings fantasy points. Based on GPP principles alone, he needs to be considered to gain leverage over his much more popular teammates. He is more of a game theory play than anything else because his ho-hum 17% target share and inconsistent play are the reasons he’s not more popular.
Middle Tier (Between $6,000 & $5,000)
However, Lockett's high-value opportunities — two end-zone targets, 229 air yards — point to a massive bounce-back effort being on the horizon. Lockett’s 25% target share ranks 10th since Week 7, so the volume should be there for him to produce.
Lockett knows the Arizona Cardinals well, as he roasted them for over 250 receiving yards and four touchdowns last year. This year, Arizona ranks 30th in passing touchdown rate to wide receivers.
Even though the Tennessee Titans defense has improved as of late, the unit is still giving up a ton of wide receiver production. Across the board, the Titans rank first in receptions, first in targets and third in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers in the past four weeks.
Moore is a screaming value at $5,900. Although he did virtually nothing in the Panthers' big win over the Cardinals, Moore still received plenty of opportunities, posting a 25% target share and 43% air yards share. Moore ranks fourth in NFL in air yards share since Week 7.
Don't underestimate Jaylen Waddle ($5,600). His receiving numbers across the board are substantially better with his Alabama teammate than when Jacoby Brissett has been under center — especially his average depth of target (5.7 versus 8.9) and target share (24% versus 20%).
With more downfield opportunities, Waddle should be primed for a ceiling fantasy performance versus the Jets, who rank last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the past four weeks.
Tee Higgins is never priced correctly. Based on the targets and air yards he commands in the Bengals offense, the second-year wideout cannot continue to underwhelm fantasy managers. In the last four weeks, Higgins ranks seventh in air yards share and ninth in target share among all wide receivers.
Higgins isn’t an example of an inefficient receiver who is just playing poorly, as all of Higgins’ efficiency metrics are great. In addition, he has a top-15 PFF grade and has averaged 2.02 yards per route run since Week 6.
Talented players who are seeing volume are going to inevitably put up big fantasy weeks. Higgins is simply too cheap on DraftKings at just $5,400 this week.
Stack Darnell Mooney ($5,200) with Fields. Mooney has been the Chicago Bears‘ No. 1 wide receiver this season. He owns a 22% target share to Allen Robinson’s 17% target share over the past four weeks and has averaged twice as many fantasy points per game (13.0 vs 6.5).
His 12th-ranked 31% air yards share should lead to production versus the Ravens, who rank 29th in yards per pass attempt and fifth in fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last four weeks.
Low Tier (Between $4,900 & $4,000)
Joe Flacco will start for the Jets, meaning the target pecking order is up in the air. Jamison Crowder saw a 22% target share from Flacco last season, so he’s in line to see some decent work. But in Flacco’s limited playing time in Week 10, he targeted Elijah Moore twice — one of which turned into a touchdown.
The $4.9K-priced wide receiver’s overall lack of playing time and total routes run is a frustrating combination, but he has been overcoming it all season.
Look for the Jets' leading wide receiver in target rate per route run to be a fantasy WR3 against the Miami Dolphins, who rank third in fantasy points allowed to the position this season. The rookie led the team in air yards in Week 10 — a tell-tale sign that a blow-up game is on the horizon.
Sammy Watkins’ return to the Ravens lineup did lower Rashod Bateman‘s route share, but the rookie still got the job done with a 24% target rate. I’d like to bet rational coaching prevails, meaning Baltimore will realize that trotting out Watkins is suboptimal. This should bump Bateman’s route share up in Week 11. Play him at $4.5K in a plus-matchup versus the Bears. His 12.7 expected fantasy points per game over his last three contests rank top 30 among all wide receivers. Bateman is simply too cheap as DraftKings’ 43rd priced receiver.
Donovan Peoples-Jones’ underlying metrics were solid in Week 10. He saw five targets and ran a route on a season-high 87% of Cleveland's passing plays. It’s clear that he is Browns' No. 1 perimeter wide receiver, which is a great role to be in against the Detroit Lions.
It’s the No. 1 matchup for wide receivers, per PFF’s strength of schedule tool, because the Lions rank last in explosive play rate on targets to the position. Peoples-Jones lives off big plays, as he is PFF’s highest-graded player on targets of 20-plus air yards (99.9).
Tre’Quan Smith ($4,400) is starting to heat up. The New Orleans Saints wide receiver had his best game of the season in Week 10, converting his season-high 22% target share (nine targets) into four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown.
Smith would have had an even bigger day had he brought down either of his two end-zone targets. Consider him at $4,400 on DraftKings this week with a plus-matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. Smith operates from the slot more than any other Saints receiver and could thrive against a zone-heavy Eagles defense. Philadelphia has allowed the fourth-highest passer rating and third-highest touchdown rate on targets to the slot this season.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Deonte Harris ($4,200), so I’m giddy to see him producing. He doesn’t run a ton of routes, but he is heavily featured when on the field. Harris has at least seven targets or 50 receiving yards in each of his last five games despite never playing more than 40% of New Orleans' offensive snaps. He’s a great pivot off the other $4,200-priced wide receiver with the fifth-best WR/CB matchup on the slate.
Welcome to Michael Gallup chalk week. He is egregiously mispriced at $4,200 despite running a route on 63% of Dak Prescott’s dropbacks in his return from IR. Gallup posted a strong 27% target rate per route run, showing that he'll still be targeted even in a crowded offense. Lock him into cash lineups.
Nevertheless, don’t be afraid to late swap to Bryan Edwards if the early games don’t go your way. He is priced $100 cheaper than Gallup and is coming off an impressive three-catch, 88-yard performance (2.67 yards per route run).
Dumpster Tier (Below $4,000)
Save salary with Quez Watkins at $3,700 in Week 11. Dallas Goedert could miss the game if he does not clear concussion protocol, which opens up targets for the Philadelphia WRs not named DeVonta Smith. The matchup is great versus the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points allowed to WRs this season. Marshon Lattimore will likely trail Smith in coverage.
We saw Marcus Johnson pop off for Tennessee as the No. 2 option in Week 10, so something similar could happen with Watkins, who ran a route on 92% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks, earned a 26% target share and saw two deep targets in Week 10.
The Saints rank second in deep-ball rate faced this season, setting up Watkins as a vastly underrated DFS option.
Johnson ($3,500) ran the most routes when Julio Jones last missed game action and reclaimed the No. 2 role in Week 10. Johnson led the Titans receiving corps in yards (100) and targets (six). Look for him to remain the No. 2 WR option behind A.J. Brown until Jones returns from his hamstring injury.
FANDUEL WIDE RECEIVER VALUES
High Tier ($4,000-Plus)
For lineups that forego Tyreek Hill, leveraging Travis Kelce ($7,100) in the tight end slot makes a ton of sense. However, be aware that Kelce’s suppressed price is appropriate because his usage has been slightly diminished over the past four weeks.
He ranks outside the top-five tight ends in both target share (18%) and air yards share (17%).
Mark Andrews ($6,000) could easily outscore Kelce at half the rostership. The Ravens tight end ranks second in expected fantasy points per game (16.0) over the last four weeks.
Anytime you can play a wide receiver disguised as a tight end — do it. That’s the case with Mike Gesicki ($5,200), who has played just 5% of his snaps aligned inline — by far the lowest of any tight end. Because Gesicki is basically a wide receiver, he benefits from the matchup versus the Jets, who have allowed the most fantasy points to the position over the last four weeks.
My favorite GPP tight end is easily Dalton Schultz ($4,600), who's projected for less than 5% rostership and gains you cheap exposure to the highest total on the main slate.
He’s also run a route on 91% of the Cowboys' passing plays over the past two weeks, which is unheard of for a tight end. Look for him to put up numbers versus the Chiefs.
Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, providing a massive edge for Schultz to produce.
Dawson Knox should be included in any Josh Allen stacks. He played 84% of Buffalo's offensive snaps while running a route on 71% of passing plays in his first week back from IR. Better fantasy days are on the horizon.
Fantasy managers should play Knox ahead of Buffalo's matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, who have allowed the second-most receptions to tight ends this season.
Lower Tier (Between $3,900 & $2,500)
My punt tight end of choice this week is none other than Cole Kmet ($3,400). He ranks in the top 10 in routes run per dropback and third in target share (21%) since Week 7. He finally converted his encouraging usage into season-highs in receiving yards (87), receptions (six) and targets (eight) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 9.
He is an option this week with a juicy matchup on deck versus the Ravens, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
If you need $100 in savings, Adam Trautman is viable. He has been trending up in terms of usage and saw his percentage of routes run transform into five catches for 32 yards in Week 10. Play him in a plus-matchup versus the Eagles in Week 11: The Eagles rank bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
He split reps with Jack Stoll in Week 10, but Jackson should see his largest passing-game role moving forward. The 6-foot-7 tight end was featured heavily in the passing game before his injury during the 2021 preseason.
FANDUEL TIGHT END VALUES
When in doubt, always pay down for defenses. The unpredictable nature of D/ST scoring (sacks, turnovers, etc.) means every D/ST has virtually the same fantasy ceiling, even if you think one is in a “smash” spot.
My preferred pay-down option is the Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST ($2,300). The Jaguars defense ranks second in pressure rate this season, and Jimmy Garoppolo is PFF’s worst-graded QB under pressure this season. The Jacksonville defense is flying under the radar with just 3.4% projected rostership.
The other top values, per PFF’s DFS optimizer and projections, include the Washington Football Team ($2,400), Cleveland Browns ($3,100), New York Jets ($2,300), Las Vegas Raiders ($2,600) and Carolina Panthers ($2,700).
The Raiders, Browns, and Football Team have the biggest trench advantages based on PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart.
For tournaments, pay for up the Buffalo Bills DST at $3,100. Buffalo’s defense leads the NFL in points per game, and Carson Wentz is tied for second in the NFL in turnover-worthy plays since Week 7. The Raiders and Jags should also be considered in GPPs based on their low projected rostership.