The term “funnel defense,” or “pass funnel defense” was coined several years ago by the esteemed Adam Levitan. It has become common parlance among DFS and other fantasy aficionados, and essentially refers to defenses which are simultaneously soft against the pass and stout against the run.
Fantasy gamers love to target such defenses when selecting quarterbacks and pass-catchers, knowing the path of least resistance will funnel point-scoring opportunity to the air instead of the ground. While the concept is intuitive, identifying pass funnel defenses – particularly early in the season – is not so simple.
Offseason player and coach migration, along with natural performance fluctuations, can turn yesterday’s funnel defense into tomorrow’s fantasy landmine. Fortunately, PFF analysts recently released fresh rankings of every front-seven and secondary, into which roster turnover has been factored.
We will also leverage individual run-defense grades, along with pass-rush and coverage grades, to identify several juicy early-season passing game targets. If there is interest in us maintaining an in-season funnel defense list with analysis of the changing landscape, let us know on Twitter.
New York Jets
We might as well start by picking on the Jets, as it’s destined to be a common theme this season. Their 28th-ranked secondary will feature rookie safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye getting their feet wet. New York’s cornerbacks are either inconsistent, with free agent cornerback Morris Claiborne playing well for roughly one month out of five seasons, or worse (Buster Skrine and Marcus Williams). Throwing at the Jets defense continues to be more attractive than running at what remains one of the better lines in football, backboned by Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Sheldon Richardson.
Over the last two seasons, teams have opted to pass against the Jets 60 percent of the time in neutral situations, which for the purpose of this exercise is defined as one-score games during the first three quarters. That is the league’s third-highest rate. Last season, they faced the fifth-most pass attempts in neutral situations. With the way their likely funnel defense is constructed, they figure to be near the top of the league once again, even if they are getting consistently blown out in their quest for the top pick in 2018. Expect the Bills, Raiders, and Dolphins to come out firing against the Jets in September.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have several intriguing defensive pieces, although most are in their front-seven. Inside linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan are both strong run stoppers (Freeman is excellent in coverage), and the defense sagged when they missed time. Underrated defensive end Akiem Hicks graded fourth positionally in run defense, and promising nose tackle Eddie Goldman played well in limited snaps while battling an ankle injury. Former Chiefs defensive end Jaye Howard is an asset against the run who also fought through injury. The Bears run-stopping graded 11th-best and appears at least as strong.
Chicago’s secondary, on the other hand, doesn’t look nearly as competent. They project as our third-worst unit. Free agent import Prince Amukamara graded 54th in coverage while allowing a 108.8 passer rating and five touchdowns (no interceptions). He will pair up with either Marcus Cooper, who graded 109th in coverage last year, or cut-candidate Kyle Fuller – who didn’t play at all. During neutral game scripts, the Bears faced the 12th-highest pass rate in 2016 (58.7 percent) and only four teams have more pass attempts against them over the last two seasons (640). Expect more of the same during an opening month featuring Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay Packers
By season’s end, the Packers had stalwarts like Matt Barkley posting 350-plus yard games and multiple touchdowns against their smoldering secondary. On the rare occasion opponents didn’t immediately come out chucking, Green Bay’s stout run defense quickly funneled the action into the air. The Packers graded fifth-best in run-stopping, which contrasted sharply with their second-worst-graded pass coverage. Nearly every member of the front-seven who graded positively against the run will return this year, including top-10 run defenders Mike Daniels and Nick Perry. They also signed Ricky Jean-Francois — who has graded positively in run blocking each year of his career — and drafted promising defensive tackle Montravius Adams in the third round.
The Packers also return much of their nuked back-end, albeit with reinforcements. Second-round athletic freak Kevin King has “struggled mightily” in camp, and free agent Davon House – who was incinerated before a Week 6 demotion — join Green Bay’s shell-shocked secondary. Quinten Rollins (94th-graded coverage cornerback), Damarious Randall (114th), and lone bright spot Ladarius Gunter (44th-best) are back in the mix. The Packers secondary is projected 16th-best, but it has almost everything to do with safety pairing Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett. Of course, they stand out more against the run than the pass – which is the overall theme of the Packers defense.
Los Angeles Rams
Losing Dominique Easley for the season with an ACL tear doesn’t help a front-seven we project fifth-best, although it doesn’t hurt the run defense as much as it does the pass-rush. The Rams run defense both graded in the top-10 and ranked in the top-10 for fewest yards per carry allowed (3.9). Aaron Donald (third-best) and Michael Brockers (13th-best) graded exceptionally in run-stopping at their position (out of 73). Their linebacker talent, including Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn, Connor Barwin, and Mark Barron is strong, even if the overall depth has been thinned by years of poor roster management.
The secondary, however, is even more thinned out. Other than franchise-tagged cornerback Trumaine Johnson, the Rams will trot out former Broncos backup Kayvon Webster, who hasn’t played more than 132 snaps since his 2013 rookie year, and failed Bills slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman. Maurice Alexander is solid at strong safety, but free safety Lamarcus Joyner a converted mediocre slot cornerback. New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips loves to blitz, but will find it was much easier when he had the Broncos secondary. We project this Rams unit to be a bottom-10 group, and they’ll continue to be busy, as Los Angeles faced the second-most situation-neutral passes over the last two seasons.
Cleveland Browns
This one feels odd, since it’s easier to imagine teams grinding out second-half leads on the ground. However, the Browns are projected for a three-win improvement and should be on the upswing. Their front-seven is swinging up faster than their back-end, however. Former first-rounder Danny Shelton graded fifth in run-stopping last year, just behind Ndamukong Suh and ahead of Fletcher Cox. Christian Kirksey graded second among inside linebackers, in front of C.J. Mosley and Luke Kuechly. Add first overall pick Myles Garrett to young talents Jamie Collins and Carl Nassib and we have the makings of a rapidly improving defensive front.
The Browns project to have the sixth-worst secondary, which includes pass coverage liabilities Derrick Kindred and Calvin Pryor at safety, with rookie Jabrill Peppers’ role still undefined. Cornerback Jamar Taylor showed promise for the first time in his four-year career, but Joe Haden and free agent import Jason McCourty have looked closer to the glue factory than the Pro Bowl lately. Cleveland faced the 10th-most passes in neutral game scripts the last two seasons, and the 11th-highest pass rate. They should hang in more games as their roster improves, and on defense the front-seven has gotten better more quickly.
Philadelphia Eagles
Last season’s seventh-graded defense had the eighth-best run-stopping and second-best pass rush. It will be fascinating to find out if the considerable heat they can put on quarterbacks is enough to mitigate the damage inflicted on our worst-rated secondary. The Eagles graded 23rd in pass coverage in 2016 and arguably got worse at cornerback. Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson are tentatively slated to start, although Philadelphia has no shortage of kindling behind them on the depth chart. At least they are set at safety, with Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod holding down the middle.
What should ultimately funnel the action toward the Eagles’ subpar cornerbacks is a front-seven that projects as the league’s third-best. Teams will have an exceedingly hard time running on Fletcher Cox and company, meaning their quarterbacks will be forced to run away from them. Jim Schwartz’s defense is aggressive but not blitz-heavy, bringing extra rushers on only 20.1 percent of dropbacks in 2016 (second-lowest). Ultimately, we can probably be more confident the Eagles will deploy a funnel defense than we are in quarterbacks finding success against their pass rush – and the Redskins are a perfect Week 1 test.
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