Exception Report: Duke Johnson, fantasy-relevant Brown

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

The Browns have not been a safe haven of fantasy relevance in 2017, something that was expected going into the season. Despite that, one player has remained relevant through less conventional means. Duke Johnson, the third-year runner and small side of the committee at running back with Isaiah Crowell, has carved out a valuable niche as a primary receiving option for the Browns. As such, he is currently sixth in total receptions among players during their first three seasons. The other five are below, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

How did he get here?

While Johnson only handled a full workload once for Miami during his three years on campus, he did leave as the team’s all-time leading runner. Despite that, there were concerns around injuries and his ability to run inside and hold up against a full workload. Teams did like his elusiveness and the way Johnson could break big plays.

Johnson’s 2014 season put him in the top 10 for rushing yards (1,652) and was fifth overall in yards from scrimmage (2,073). He was 19th in PFF’s elusive rating and gained just over 50 percent of his rushing yards on big runs of 15-plus yards (23rd-ranked). The number of big runs (28) he had was third on the season just behind Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman, pretty good company. He was also strong after contact, averaging 3.51 yards per attempt after contact, which ranked 12th that season.

As a receiver, he ranked 17th in total routes run and in yards gained per route run (1.64). Johnson was third on missed tackles forced (14) on receptions and did so despite just 39 catches. A criticism of Johnson coming into the draft was limitations as a pass-blocker, but PFF graded him competently in 2014, ranking 56th at the position.

What has he done?

The Browns drafted Johnson in the third round, seeing him along with first-round pick Johnny Manziel as a remedy for the blandness that plagued the offense. While Manziel’s brand of “zeal” was mostly off the field, Johnson partnered with undrafted running back Crowell to create a dynamic the team was sorely lacking. While the acquisition (or return) of key skill players like Corey Coleman, Josh Gordon, and David Njoku will help even more, quarterback is one area the team has yet to solve.

Even still, Johnson has been quite impressive in his almost-three-year career. He recently became the sixth running back in NFL history to start his career with three straight 50-plus catch seasons. Overall, he has just 34 fewer targets (215) than he has carries (247) showing a rare balance in responsibilities. To put that into perspective, only Terry Kirby and Earl Cooper had more than 150 receptions with less than 300 carries in their first three seasons.

Let’s start with Johnson’s receiving ability in the NFL, since that’s where he has been a difference maker. He has ranked second in each of the last three years in forced missed tackles on receptions. Johnson is the only player to exceed 20 missed tackles in each season and is second to Theo Riddick in total missed tackles during the three-year timeframe. Johnson also has averaged over 1.50 yards per route run in each of the three seasons and has two top-10 ranks over the three years. As for receiving volume, he has never ranked lower than 13th in total routes run, exceeding 250 each year.

While Johnson isn’t seen as a primary runner, he has shown some success rushing the football. This year, he ranks 15th in elusive rating, similar to the last two years (12th and 22nd), pointing to his ability to create beyond the point of being helped by his blockers. He isn’t breaking as many big runs — they only account for about 25 percent of Johnson’s total rushing yards. That said, he has averaged 2.6 yards per attempt after contact, the same number as Crowell.

What can he do?

Much like previous entrant to this series Alvin Kamara, Johnson has never seen a full workload as a running back. The difference is, Johnson will likely never get the chance in Cleveland, but he does have a clear role on the team. Even with upgrades to other skill positions, Johnson has set a career high in targets this year along with receiving yards and touchdowns. That, along with a career high in snap percentage (54 percent), is another sign of optimism for the young running back.

Barely 24 years old, Johnson will have plenty more chances, health permitting, to continue to accumulate receptions. Only six running backs have managed to record seven or more seasons of 50-plus receptions. While there are other running backs close to the mark (Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, and LeSean McCoy all have five), none are nearly as young. While Le’Veon Bell also has three such seasons, he is nearly two years older than Johnson.

The combination of Johnson’s low NFL wear and tear along with his youth make him a candidate to become the seventh to get to seven. Betting on good health over a career is never an easy proposition, but he would be the active player worth betting on, even if the odds are long.

Confidence level: 20%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Johnson has been a great asset in PPR leagues this year, currently ranked 13th at the position in that format. It is a definite leap from his previous finishes of 31st and 24th, largely attributed to two factors. The first is the increase in receptions per game (up nearly one per game versus his previous years), adding roughly 30 fantasy points to his total, alone vaulting Johnson up six spots in the fantasy rankings. The second is an increase in touchdowns in his third year. Johnson had three total touchdowns in his first two years but already has six in 2017, including three on pass receptions. That additional 24 to 30 fantasy points combined with the reception increase catapulted Johnson from what would have been a fringe top 36 scorer to his current position.

To bet on Johnson becoming a strong touchdown scorer would be foolish, but he could see totals more closely resembling other receiving backs like Sproles or Riddick. They have largely accounted for four to five touchdowns per season, which is a drop from this season for Johnson but above what he saw early on. If he can maintain that touchdown pace along with 50-plus receptions, Johnson will remain an underrated startable option in fantasy, albeit with limited upside.