In order to win a DFS tournament, it is essential to build a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so when these low-owned plays hit, your roster will soar past the competition and into first place.
Last week, we nailed monster hits on Jalen Hurts, Tyler Lockett and Nick Chubb, three players who launched rosters to the top of DFS leaderboards everywhere. And while Calvin Ridley may have busted hard, the process was sound because of the leverage against the chalky Kyle Pitts.
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One of the most popular post-Week 1 narratives is that Najee Harris managed a 100% snap rate. The DFS field is too sharp these days to care about his measly 5.9 PPR fantasy points — the bell-cow running back is currently projected to be the most rostered player on the entire slate.
In all, the Raiders finished 32nd among the league's 32 defenses in rushing yards allowed (189) and yards allowed after first contact (130). They finished 31st in yards allowed per carry (5.6) and touchdowns (2).
While everything points toward a complete Harris smash, we need to understand the variance within the small sample size of a single NFL game and embrace the unexpected.
If Harris fails in this spot, the most likely reason is that most of the production flows through the passing game. We don’t even need to go off the board here — the Steelers No. 1 wide receiver will go completely overlooked.
Johnson registered a healthy 31% target share in Week 1, the fourth-highest at the position. He turned 10 targets into a five-catch, 36-yard, one-score performance.
The field is chasing the volume in the running game, so let’s move in the other direction and go after the targets in the passing game.
If Johnson posts 100 yards and multiple touchdowns in this game, then not only are you getting tournament-winning production the field is not on, but you are also crushing the 25%-plus of your competition that rostered Harris.
This is the type of leverage that can rocket your roster into first place.