• Sam Darnold is in a quarterback-friendly offense: When Kirk Cousins missed time last season, the Minnesota Vikings‘ backup quarterbacks still enjoyed some fantasy success.
• A former top-10 fantasy quarterback returns: Daniel Jones missed a lot of the 2024 season due to injury, but he was a top-10 fantasy QB in 2022 and has a better group of wide receivers to throw to this season.
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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
These three fantasy football sleepers have an ADP outside of 120 by consensus boards, but I have ranked them notably higher.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, August 30
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 19.02, From consensus ADP)
Kirk Cousins got off to a strong start in fantasy football last season before his injury, averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game over the first eight weeks, seventh among all quarterbacks.
After Cousins went down, Joshua Dobbs served as the Vikings' stand-in from Week 9 to 14 and averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game, 19th at the position. In the final four weeks, the Vikings turned to Nick Mullens, who averaged 17.8 points per game, the 15th-best over that span.
Over recent years, the Vikings quarterbacks have put up big numbers for fantasy football, largely thanks to Kevin O’Connell’s tendency to maintain a higher-than-expected pass rate, a trend likely to continue this season. The team has also run more plays in recent seasons.
It also helps that Darnold will have Justin Jefferson as a primary target. While the uncertainty around T.J. Hockenson's return is a clear downgrade from last season, Darnold will benefit from having Aaron Jones as a reliable option for check-down passes, an upgrade over what the Vikings' quarterbacks had last season.
Darnold has an ADP of QB30, but he should perform better than Dobbs and Mullens did last season. He should have the same volume that Dobbs and Mullens received, but Darnold has a 66.5 passing grade over the last two seasons, while the other two quarterbacks are below 60.0.
He also had a full training camp with the starters, while Mullens and Dobbs did not. While Darnold probably doesn’t have the upside to be a top-five fantasy quarterback, finishing among the top 12 is a clear possibility.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 14.08)
Levis took over as the Titans' starting quarterback in Week 8 last season. He missed all but 13 snaps over the last three weeks of the season, but from Weeks 8-15, he was QB16.
The Titans were among the top 10 in run percentage during that period. However, a significant change for Levis this season is the arrival of Brian Callahan as the new head coach. Callahan, who spent the last five seasons as the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive coordinator, led a team that consistently ranked in the top five in pass rate. As a result, Levis' fantasy value should see a boost this year simply due to an increase in passing attempts.
Levis also has significant upgrades at wide receiver. DeAndre Hopkins was his favorite target last year, but outside of Hopkins, he dealt with a rotation of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chris Moore, Treylon Burks and Kyle Philips. All four are expected to be fourth on the depth chart at best this season. Calvin Ridley was signed to a massive contract to play opposite Hopkins, while Tyler Boyd followed Callahan from Cincinnati to play in the slot.
It’s worth noting it’s harder to find a sleeper quarterback this year than most. Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams already have ADPs within the top 120, as do 15 other quarterbacks. Of the first 10 quarterback who qualify for the sleeper tag for this article, eight are 29 or older and have limited to no rushing upside. Levis is projected to run by far the most out of that group of quarterbacks.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants (ADP: 22.09)
Jones finished as the QB9 in 2022, in large part thanks to his rushing ability. His 708 rushing yards ranked fifth at the position, while his seven rushing touchdowns tied for third.
He recorded a below-average big-time throw rate and an above-average turnover-worthy throw rate, but his volume in the running and passing game was enough to vault him into the top 10. Jones did not get off to a strong start in 2023 before dealing with injuries that decimated the rest of his season.
There is reason to believe Jones could match his 2022 fantasy production this season. The wide receivers he'll have at his disposal are much better than they were at the start of last year.
Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins were the three primary wide receivers when Jones was healthy last season. This year, Jones has Malik Nabers as his new lead wide receiver. Wan’Dale Robinson is healthy and should be his second-best option. Jalin Hyatt hadn’t earned much playing time while Jones was healthy last year, but he should also be part of the mix.
The Giants also generally ran the ball more than most teams when they had a lead, and they also ran more than most when playing from behind. That was in large part because they had Saquon Barkley. Now, Devin Singletary is at running back.
This season, it’s clear the Giants will put things in Jones' hands to determine if he can be the future at the position.
This means the former first-round pick should have more opportunities and better efficiency. The big concern is that a neck injury kept him out early last season, but a torn ACL kept him out for the rest of the campaign. The ACL tear may prevent Jones from running nearly as much as he had in past seasons, which could hurt his fantasy value more than the new receivers help him.
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