If you've paid any attention to fantasy football in the last 10 months, you know that Chris Johnson was a disappointment in 2011. He went from a pretty cool nickname in “CJ2K” to being mocked as “CJ1K.” Don't let his 2011 season taint your opinion of him too much, though. In four years in the league, Johnson has averaged 1,767 total yards, 10.5 total touchdowns, and 4.8 yards per carry.
Age isn't a concern for Johnson yet — he will be 27 next season. He had a poor PFF rating in 2011 (-3.5), but it wasn't much better in 2010 (-1.6). He has averaged just under 300 carries a season, however, so he hasn't been overworked. He also hasn't missed a game since his rookie season, so durability isn't a problem either.Here's a simple chart detailing Johnson's rushing the last two seasons (PPS is based on only his rushing):
| 2010 | |||||
| Snaps | Att. | Yds. | Avg. | TD | PPS |
| 825 | 316 | 1365 | 4.3 | 11 | 0.25 |
| 2011 | |||||
| 731 | 262 | 1053 | 4.0 | 4 | 0.18 |
For starters, the most ridiculous stat from 2011 Johnson was his four touchdowns. Four! LeSean McCoy had four touchdowns after two weeks.
Check out his TD rates (rushing TDs/attempts) over his four season:
| Year | TD Rate |
| 2011 | 1.53% |
| 2010 | 3.48% |
| 2009 | 3.91% |
| 2008 | 3.59% |
Johnson has never been a touchdown machine — he scored 16 total in his 2,000-yard season. However, 2011 is clearly an anomaly. His average between 2008-2010 was 3.68 percent. It's fair to assume a TD rate of over 3 percent next season, which means if Johnson reaches 300 carries, he will score 10 touchdowns. Last season, if Johnson had scored 10 touchdowns instead of four, his PPS would have been 0.23, not too far off his 2010 PPS number.
He had 262 attempts last season, ninth most in the league. His carries per snap percentage did drop from 38.3 percent to 35.8 percent, but that was still higher than Ray Rice (34.4), McCoy (30.5), Fred Jackson (29.4), and others. Look for Johnson's carries per snap percentage to rise next season as the Titans look to give him more carries.
This chart shows Johnson's running over the last two season by location. LG/LT means that Johnson carried the ball between the left guard and the left tackle. C/RG means Johnson went between the center and right guard, etc.
| 2010 | ||||||||
| Wide left | LT/TE | LG/LT | C/LG | C/RG | RG/RT | RT/FB | Wide right | |
| Carries | 59 | 21 | 25 | 42 | 50 | 37 | 22 | 59 |
| Yards | 337 | 58 | 155 | 141 | 192 | 83 | 139 | 258 |
| Avg. | 5.71 | 2.76 | 6.20 | 3.36 | 3.84 | 2.24 | 6.32 | 4.37 |
| Y/Co. Avg. | 3.25 | 1.76 | 4.92 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 1.68 | 2.64 | 2.97 |
| 2011 | ||||||||
| Wide left | LT/TE | LG/LT | C/LG | C/RG | RG/RT | RT/FB | Wide right | |
| Carries | 51 | 11 | 31 | 36 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 43 |
| Yards | 285 | 80 | 99 | 83 | 75 | 136 | 102 | 190 |
| Avg. | 5.59 | 7.27 | 3.19 | 2.31 | 2.50 | 4.69 | 3.40 | 4.42 |
| Y/Co. Avg. | 3.16 | 2.36 | 1.84 | 1.19 | 1.27 | 1.93 | 2.03 | 2.56 |
The bolded green numbers in 2011 are the averages that were higher for Johnson than 2010. There's not many of them, but it does point out a few things. For one, he really stunk the joint up running off-center. His center, Eugene Amano, was the second-worst run blocking center in the league with a -17.4 PFF rating. Johnson also averaged almost 0.8 less yards after contact on the whole, a pretty significant figure. A big positive: He had success running off of Jared Cook's blocking, whose -0.2 run block rating was better than the -4.1 rating provided in 2010 by Craig Stevens.
The Titans' offensive line finished 2011 with a -47.5 run block rating, which was actually an upgrade from their -97 performance in 2010, so Johnson can't really blame his line for his season. In 2009, though, the Titans had a +5.4 run block rating. Even though there isn't direct relation between Johnson's poor season and the Titans run blocking performance, -47.5 is not a rating to be proud of, and any improvement in run blocking makes Johnson's job easier.
Tennessee's offense figures to be much improved overall next season, as well. No matter who starts at quarterback, the biggest factor affecting Johnson will be Kenny Britt's health.
Britt, a premier talent at wide receiver, will stretch the field and prohibit the defense from focusing too much on Johnson. Britt is almost guarenteed to catch a few deep balls and put the Titans in goal-to-go situations, further increasing Johnson's touchdown opportunities.
Johnson is a rare talent in the prime of his career, and I don't see any way the Titans give him less than 275 carries again. It's inevitable for Johnson to receive more carries, have a higher average, and have an increased TD rate – all good things for fantasy footballers like you.
Here are my 2012 projections for Chris Johnson (running stats only):
| Snaps | Att. | Yds. | Avg. | TD | PPS |
| 825 | 303 | 1364 | 4.5 | 10 | 0.24 |
Add in 60 receptions for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Johnson is looking at a top-five season for running backs. In a fantasy season thin at running back, Johnson in the middle-late first round is tremendous value.
Remember, he still reached 1,000 yards last season, something only 14 others did. He keeps saying he wants to run for 2,000 yards again, and while that is highly unlikely, Johnson will put up solid numbers in a rebound year.
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