• Read PFF's QB Annual for the most in-depth analysis of Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and every NFL quarterback in 2021.
Despite the 2022 offseason nearly being over, with many of the premiere betting opportunities (win totals, outrights) already pounded into place, the books can’t get everything right.
In this article I go through one bet I like for each AFC East team. Enjoy!
Buffalo Bills (-225 to win the division, 11.5)
Bet to Make: James Cook +1600 to win offensive rookie of the year on BetMGM
When I’m trying to convince people of this bet, I tell people to think of 2017 Alvin Kamara. The projections for Cook are great, and the lack of college workload has me less concerned about him sustaining an injury in Year One. The market is rightfully hot on Buffalo, so there aren’t a lot of ways to bet the Bills if you’re bullish on them. Cook is the bet to make as a result.
Miami Dolphins (+475, 9)
Bet to Make: Tua Tagovailoa Under 25.5 touchdown passes (-115) on BetMGM
This could go under for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Shanahan-type offense hasn’t really supported the type of quarterback that goes over this mark, with 26, 25, 28, 26 and 15 total touchdown passes in Kyle Shanahan's five-year San Francisco tenure, respectively. Only one individual quarterback has gone over this total during that time, which plays into the second reason: Tua has dealt with injuries throughout the end of his college career and during his NFL career, making an over dicey. Lastly, this is a team that wants to win now, and any slip ups by Tua will lead to Teddy Bridgewater playing, which means you cash this bet with ease.
New England Patriots (+475, 8.5)
Bet to Make: Mac Jones under 23.5 touchdown passes (-115) on BetMGM
Unlike Miami, where most people believe that the change at offensive coordinator will help their young quarterback, everyone believes that the switch from Josh McDaniels to whatever the heck the Patriots are doing at play caller should hurt Jones. Jones is a very durable player, which hurts this bet a little bit, but there is a real and significant chance that in a division with three decent-to-good defenses, he simply is going to struggle to move the ball, and throw touchdown passes as a result.
New York Jets (+2200, not currently offered)
Bet to Make: Carl Lawson +8000 to win comeback player of the year
All indications are that Lawson is healthy after missing his debut season with the Jets with an Achilles injury. He joins a defensive line that has Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Meyers and first-round pick Jermaine Johnson, which should help him get some clean-up sacks on top of his already-good projected pressure rate. A 15-sack season is not out of the question, and if he accomplishes this, he’s in the running for that award.