NFL Betting: Using PFF projections to forecast 2025 receiving yards leader

  • Justin Jefferson and J.J. McCarthy will cook in Minnesota: Jefferson led the NFL with 43 receptions of 15-plus yards in 2024 and has totaled 199 explosive catches since 2020 — the most in the league over that span, outpacing the next closest receiver by 20.
  • Could Puka Nacua make history in Year 3? The last Rams receiver to post a 90.0-plus PFF receiving grade and average over 3.0 yards per route run was Cooper Kupp in 2021, the year he won the triple crown and finished just 18 yards shy of Calvin Johnson’s single-season record.
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Using PFF fantasy projections as a lens into the betting markets, we’ve identified some of the most valuable receiving yardage futures ahead of the 2025 NFL season, headlined by Cincinnati Bengals star Ja'Marr Chase, who’s projected to lead the league after capturing the receiving triple crown in 2024.

Chase is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s most dominant receivers, but he’s not the only name to watch in this year’s receiving yardage race. With a new wave of talented young wideouts entering the league, let’s break down the top candidates to bet on leading the NFL in receiving yards in 2025.

Looking for value in the 2025 receiving yardage market? These are the best bets to lead the NFL.

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

RankNameProjected Receiving YardageOdds
1Ja'Marr Chase1,420.3+550
2Justin Jefferson1,350.0+750
3Nico Collins1,320.9+750
4Brian Thomas Jr.1,309.2+1200
5Puka Nacua1,275.5+1000
6A.J. Brown1,187.1+1900
7CeeDee Lamb1,165.2+1000
8Malik Nabers1,164.8+1300
9Amon-Ra St. Brown1,154.1+2700
10Drake London1,149.2+2500
11Ladd McConkey1,129.5+3700
12Tee Higgins1,083.1+3200
13Terry McLaurin1,060.2+4200
14Garrett Wilson1,043.9+5000
15Marvin Harrison Jr.1,028.4+4500

Favorites

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (+550)

PFF Projection: 1,420.3 receiving yards

Fresh off a historic 2024 campaign where he became just the fifth player since the merger to win the receiving triple crown, Chase is again projected to lead the NFL in receiving yards, with a PFF projection north of 1,400 yards. Oddsmakers agree, listing him as the early favorite.

While his volume helped drive last season’s success, Chase’s relatively modest 24.1% target rate suggests he wasn’t simply force-fed targets. And since entering the league in 2021, he ranks top-10 in yards per route run (2.23) and second in yards after the catch per reception (6.1), showcasing elite efficiency and game-breaking ability.

With Joe Burrow back healthy, Chase has a strong shot to repeat as the league's top receiver.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+750)

PFF Projection: 1,350.0 receiving yards

Justin Jefferson remains one of the NFL’s most dangerous receiving threats heading into 2025. Since entering the league in 2020, he’s finished top five in regular-season receiving yards in every full season, including a league-best 1,809 yards in 2022.

At 26 years old, Jefferson remains the most explosive receiver in football. He led the NFL with 43 receptions of 15-plus yards in 2024, and his 199 explosive catches since 2020 are 20 more than any other receiver. He’ll be catching passes from a new quarterback again, but rookie J.J. McCarthy’s strengths — particularly over the middle of the field, where he earned a 91.7 PFF passing grade last year at Michigan — align well with Jefferson’s elite route running.

Sleepers

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams (+1000)

PFF Projection: 1,275.5 receiving yards

While injuries limited Puka Nacua to just 11 games in his second season, his efficiency remained off the charts. Despite the reduced volume, Nacua posted a 93.0 PFF receiving grade, the highest among all NFL wideouts. He also led the league in yards per route run (3.56), a figure nearly 20% higher than the next closest receiver. That elite efficiency aligns with his career trajectory so far, placing him in the 98th percentile in yards per route run over the past two seasons.

With Sean McVay continuing to orchestrate the Rams offense, there’s reason to believe Nacua’s growth is far from complete. The last time a Rams receiver posted a 90.0-plus receiving grade and surpassed 3.0 yards per route run, Cooper Kupp captured the receiving triple crown and came within 18 yards of breaking Calvin Johnson’s single-season record. Nacua could be next in line for a truly historic year.

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