NFL Betting: Using PFF projections to forecast 2025 rushing yards leader

  • Can Derrick Henry break a streak of second-place finishes? Although Derrick Henry hasn’t led the league in rushing since back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2020, he’s remained near the top, finishing second in rushing yards in each of the past three seasons.
  • Will Bijan Robinson take full control of Atlanta’s backfield? Robinson handled over 300 carries in 2024, boosting his share of the backfield's attempts from 47.5% to 66.9%. If that usage trend holds, he’ll be firmly in the mix for the NFL’s rushing title.
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Using PFF fantasy projections as a lens into the betting markets, we’ve identified some of the most valuable rushing yardage futures ahead of the 2025 NFL season, led by Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley, who is projected to repeat as the league’s rushing champion.

Barkley isn’t the only contender worth watching in this race to the top. With several running backs coming off standout 2024 campaigns, the 2025 rushing title is wide open, making it the perfect time to evaluate the best bets to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season.

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

RankNameProjected Rushing YardageOdds
1Saquon Barkley1,373.4+275
2Jonathan Taylor1,311.7+1000
3Derrick Henry1,306.9+400
4Bijan Robinson1,228.7+1100
5Ashton Jeanty1,227.9+1800
6Bucky Irving1,209.9+2000
7Kyren Williams1,174.9+2500
8Josh Jacobs1,131.8+2000
9Quinshon Judkins1,093.8+6500
10Jahmyr Gibbs1,078.5+1400
11Christian McCaffrey1,037.9+1000
12Chuba Hubbard1,034.0+3000
13Kenneth Walker III1,005.4+5500
14Chase Brown999.50+5000
15Tony Pollard997.4+10000

Favorites

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (+275)

PFF Projection: 1,373.4 rushing yards

Building off our previous breakdown of the most valuable rushing futures for 2025, Barkley sits atop the running back landscape, projected to follow up his 2,005-yard campaign by once again leading the NFL in rushing.

While Barkley may have his sights set even higher, a projection just shy of 1,400 yards puts him firmly in the mix for the rushing title. He’s coming off a career-best 85.6 PFF rushing grade, with elite vision, burst and contact balance that make him a top candidate to meet — or exceed — the lofty expectations set in his Philadelphia debut.

What separates Barkley from the pack is the dominant Eagles offensive line that led the NFL in 2024. Anchored by Jordan Mailata — the league’s highest-graded offensive player (95.8) — Philadelphia was the only team to produce more than 1,000 rushing yards before contact, giving Barkley a major edge in repeating as rushing champion.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (+400)

PFF Projection: 1,306.9 rushing yards

Fresh off winning PFF’s Best Runner Award in 2024, Derrick Henry shows no signs of slowing down. The Ravens star earned a career-best 93.1 PFF rushing grade — the highest in the NFL — and came just shy of surpassing 2,000 rushing yards for the second time in his storied career.

Henry remains at the forefront of one of the most prolific running back careers in the PFF era. He’s one of just four players to lead the league in rushing multiple times since 2006, joining LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and Ezekiel Elliott. Though his last rushing titles came in 2019 and 2020, Henry has stayed near the top, finishing second in rushing yardage in each of the past three seasons.

Now on the wrong side of 30, Henry still led the NFL in yards after contact (1,137), missed tackles forced (81) and yards per carry (5.9) last season — all signs that he remains firmly in the conversation to lead the league in rushing once again.  

Sleepers

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+1000)

PFF Projection: 1,311.7 rushing yards

After injury-riddled campaigns in 2022 and 2023, Jonathan Taylor returned with a strong showing in 2024. While his PFF grading profile took a slight dip, his production returned to elite levels. Taylor rushed for 1,431 yards — fourth-most in the NFL — marking his first top-five finish since leading the league in 2021 (1,811 yards, which topped the next closest rusher by over 500 yards).

Now, the Colts star enters 2025 with the second-highest rushing yardage projection, per PFF Fantasy. At 10-to-1 odds, Taylor’s value as a rushing title contender is too strong to overlook.

A key to his potential success lies in the addition of first-round tight end Tyler Warren. While adding another pass-catching option might not seem like a direct boost to Taylor’s volume, Warren’s versatility in the short passing game could help stretch defenses and create wider rushing lanes — a perfect fit for Shane Steichen’s offense.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (+1100)

PFF Projection: 1,228.7 rushing yards

Unlike others on this list, Bijan Robinson shares a backfield with another capable runner in Tyler Allgeier. But that workload is increasingly tilting in Robinson’s favor — the former top-10 pick logged over 300 carries in 2024, accounting for 66.9% of Atlanta’s rushing attempts, up from 47.5% the year prior.

That volume helped Robinson rack up 1,456 rushing yards last season, the third-highest total in the league behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Robinson will be firmly in the mix for the NFL’s rushing crown in 2025 if that trend continues.

Even with the departure of center Drew Dalman in free agency — a key piece of Atlanta’s league-best 82.8 run-blocking grade in 2024 — the Falcons still boast the NFL’s top-graded guard entering 2025 in Chris Lindstrom, who earned a 94.6 run-blocking grade last year.

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