- No Kelce, No Problem: Even though Travis Kelce is no longer at his peak, Patrick Mahomes will still have a highly talented receiving corps to work with this season.
- All Eyes on Purdy: Brock Purdy has the second-highest projected passing total heading into 2025, signaling a potential breakout campaign.
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Using PFF fantasy projections as a lens into the betting markets, we’ve identified some of the most valuable passing yardage futures ahead of the 2025 NFL season, headlined by Joe Burrow’s bid to lead the league in passing yards for a second straight year.
But Burrow isn’t the only contender. With several quarterbacks poised for breakout seasons, here are the best bets to lead the NFL in passing yardage in 2025.
Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
| Rank | Name | Proj. Passing Yardage | Odds |
| 1 | Joe Burrow | 4,262.8 | +550 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | 4,164.2 | +1300 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | 4,132.6 | +850 |
| 4 | Jared Goff | 4,033.6 | +1200 |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 3,970.2 | +2000 |
| 6 | Baker Mayfield | 3,934.2 | +1400 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | 3,909.3 | +1000 |
| 8 | Justin Herbert | 3,880.6 | +2700 |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | 3,818.5 | +1800 |
| 10 | Geno Smith | 3,809.5 | +2600 |
| 11 | Jordan Love | 3,799.9 | +1700 |
| 12 | Josh Allen | 3,797.8 | +1600 |
| 13 | C.J. Stroud | 3,796.1 | +1300 |
| 14 | Jalen Hurts | 3,617.9 | +6500 |
| 15 | Jayden Daniels | 3,601.7 | +3100 |
Favorites
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+550)
PFF Projection: 4,262.8 passing yards
As highlighted in our look at the most valuable passing futures for 2025, Joe Burrow is projected to once again lead the NFL in passing yardage. With a strong track record of production and two of PFF’s top-ranked receivers at his disposal, the sky is the limit for Burrow this season.
When healthy, Burrow has proven to be one of the most prolific passers in the league. His career-high 4,918 passing yards in 2024 only scratched the surface of his potential. In each of his fully healthy seasons, he’s surpassed 4,400 yards and finished inside the top six in passing yardage.
With lingering uncertainty around the Bengals' defense — including top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson’s status and the unsigned first-round rookie Shemar Stewart — Cincinnati’s success in 2025 may again hinge on Burrow and the offense leading the charge.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+850)
PFF Projection: 4,132.6 passing yards
Although Mahomes’ passing output has dipped slightly in recent seasons, he remains one of the most prolific quarterbacks in modern NFL history. Over the past decade, only three active signal-callers have surpassed 5,000 passing yards in a single regular season, and Mahomes is the only one to do it twice. His most recent effort came in 2022, when he led the league with 5,251 yards, finishing more than 500 yards ahead of the next closest passer.
What sets 2025 apart is the depth and speed of Mahomes’ supporting cast. The Chiefs return a fully loaded receiving corps, highlighted by second-year burner Xavier Worthy, a healthy Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown, and depth options like JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Jalen Royals.
While Travis Kelce’s production has tapered with age, he still profiles as a reliable target, ranking inside the top 10 in PFF’s tight end yardage projections. Unlike in years past, the Chiefs won’t need the 35-year-old Kelce to shoulder the bulk of the receiving workload.
Sleepers
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+1300)
PFF Projection: 4,164.2 passing yards
After signing a five-year, $265 million extension in May, all eyes will be on Brock Purdy as he enters his third season as San Francisco’s starter. Despite dealing with injuries to key targets and protection issues up front, Purdy still threw for 3,864 yards last season, the 10th-most in the NFL.
With a retooled offensive line featuring Trent Williams and rookie Dominick Puni, and a healthy supporting cast returning, the 49ers are positioned for another strong offensive campaign. The presence of Christian McCaffrey should help open things up through the air, both as a receiving threat and a play-action decoy.
Even if Brandon Aiyuk’s status remains uncertain, Purdy still has plenty of weapons in George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and former first-round pick Ricky Pearsall. With the pieces in place, Purdy is well-positioned to match or surpass his 2023 output, when he ranked fifth in the league with 4,280 passing yards.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+2700)
PFF Projection: 3,880.7
After highlighting Justin Herbert’s touchdown upside, his passing yardage prop presents another intriguing betting opportunity. Despite owning the eighth-highest projection in PFF’s 2025 passing yardage rankings, Herbert sits 16th in odds to lead the league — a discrepancy worth a flier.
Herbert’s production dipped the past two years, due to both injuries and a lack of receiving talent. But with a healthier, more capable supporting cast, this unit resembles the 2021 and 2022 Chargers, when Herbert ranked in the top two in passing yards each season.
The additions of rookie Omarion Hampton and veteran Najee Harris may suggest a greater emphasis on the run, but that could actually work in Herbert’s favor. He thrived off play action in 2024, earning a 96.7 PFF passing grade, the second-highest in the league.
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