Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 9 Betting Market Movers: Seize value in Bucs -3 vs Rams

Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) looks to pass in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

PFF Greenline still finds value on Tampa Bay -3 vs. Rams, despite this not being the best of the number. 

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We'll likely hear all week, “the sharp side” is on the Colts, and given it's the direction Greenline leans, this looks like a perfect early opportunity to pick up some CLV by kickoff.

Last updated: Nov. 1, 1:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 5 mins


The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 9 have been at critical points in the past.

Away Team Home Team Preseason

Spread

Lookahead

Spread

Week-of-Open

Spread

Current

Spread

PHI HST 5.5 9.5 13 13
MIA CHI 3 3.5 4 4.5
MIN WAS 0 3 3.5 3.5
LAC ATL 7.5 3 3.5 3
IND NE 0 -6.5 -6 -5.5
CAR CIN -7 -9.5 -8.5
GB DET 6 3.5 3.5 3
LV JAX 3 1.5 1.5 1.5
BUF NYJ 7 10.5 12.5 12.5
SEA ARZ -6.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5
LA TB -1.5 -1.5 -3 -3
TEN KC -6 -10.5 -10.5 -12.5
BLT NO 1 3.5 3 2.5

Another valuable datapoint is often the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 9.

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
Rashod Bateman BAL WR foot Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/RavensInsider/status/1587174799054630912
Mark Andrews BAL TE shoulder Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/jonas_shaffer/status/1587160432837640193
Gus Edwards BAL RB hamstring Questionable https://twitter.com/bsmolka/status/1587153604837875713
Jordan Poyer BUF S elbow Questionable https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1587174790628102145
Matt Milano BUF LB oblique Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1587174790628102145
Von Miller BUF ED medical tent Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/agetzenberg/status/1586903675326418944
Stefon Diggs BUF WR medical tent Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/JaySkurski/status/1586896493331505153
Juston Burris CAR S concussion protocol protocol https://twitter.com/josephperson/status/1586802735487352832
Justin Fields CHI QB medical tent https://twitter.com/BradBiggs/status/1586778641802878978
Chidobe Awuzie CIN CB knee season-ending https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1587258964210683906
Sam Hubbard CIN ED hand Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/Ben_Baby/status/1587287452598865922
Connor McGovern DAL LG ankle Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/calvinwatkins/status/1587180423158833159
Anthony Barr DAL LB hamstring Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/calvinwatkins/status/1587180423158833159
Jayron Kearse DAL S hip Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/calvinwatkins/status/1587180423158833159
Donovan Wilson DAL S muscle cramps Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/GehlkenNFL/status/1586806803215663104
Brock Wright DET TE concussion protocol https://twitter.com/ttwentyman/status/1586803103067959296
Maurice Alexander DET S ankle https://twitter.com/davebirkett/status/1586803416541585409
Christian Watson GB WR concussion Protocol https://twitter.com/WesHod/status/1587174868570849285
AJ Dillon GB RB knee Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/RobDemovsky/status/1586906838011768832
Tyquan Lewis IND ED patella tendon season-ending https://twitter.com/TJamesIndState/status/1587201611935481859
Tony Brown IND CB hamstring https://twitter.com/TheColtsWire/status/1586853188275249152
Cooper Kupp LA WR ankle expected to play Week 9 https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/status/1587196976600580096
Tyler Higbee LA TE neck Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1586824569486073856
Liam Eichenberg MIA LG sprained MCL Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/CameronWolfe/status/1587185592986734594
Irv Smith MIN TE ankle Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/32BeatWriters/status/1587182413737779205
Dalvin Tomlinson MIN DI calf Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/Andrew_Krammer/status/1587177180127465472
Adam Thielen MIN WR medical tent Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/BenGoessling/status/1586778159743123458
DeVante Parker NE WR knee sprain Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/kguregian/status/1587129340059422731
Josh Uche NE ED hamstring https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1586916667439075328
Adrian Phillips NE S shoulder Day-to-Day https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1586917070276628481
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB medical tent https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1586779998983184386
Nick Williams NYG DI bicep https://twitter.com/PLeonardNYDN/status/1586835191439425541
Kenny Pickett PIT QB knee https://twitter.com/C_AdamskiTrib/status/1586820550936203264
Austin Blythe SEA C leg/knee https://twitter.com/gbellseattle/status/1586822014656221184
Teair Tart TEN DI https://twitter.com/TDavenport_NFL/status/1586836309607424002
DeMarcus Walker TEN ED https://twitter.com/PaulKuharskyNFL/status/1586829914619219973
Amani Hooker TEN S shoulder https://twitter.com/AaronWilson_NFL/status/1586822854720606209

 

Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

There are a few reasons for potential spread movement in this AFC matchup. For one, the current line sits comfortably between 3 and 7 with no key numbers offering much initial resistance in either direction. 

• The Indianapolis Colts fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady Tuesday morning: They rank 29th in EPA per offensive play, mainly because they're the second-worst team in EPA per rush play, despite still having 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor. Rumors circulating about Nyheim Hines‘ potential departure via trade make this a situation where addition by subtraction somehow needs to work out. 

• The perplexing early-week spread movement buys into Indianapolis:  with Cris opening at -6.5, and current consensus already down a full point to 5.5. Part of it could be concerning injury situations with the market digesting news coming out of Week 8. The other part might just be the realization that Sam Ehlinger is exactly what this Colts offense needs with his ability to scramble offsetting struggles in pass protection. 

• Bet Colts +5.5 now: Ehlinger's rushing ability opens up more lanes for Taylor: and the second-year passer seems capable of making just as many throws as the current version of Matt Ryan. We will probably hear all week “the sharp side” is on the Colts, and with that the direction Greenline is leaning seems like the perfect early-week opportunity to play and pick up some CLV by kickoff.  

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Cooper Kupp's ankle: The biggest pending injury situation for Week 9 currently is the status of Cooper Kupp’s ankle, especially with the pitiful performance of the Cincinnati Bengals offense sans Ja’Marr Chase Monday still fresh in every bettors' mind. Kupp has been the only functional part of a disastrous Rams offense that would be completely lost without him. Early reports point toward him playing, but this is a situation where practice status will be critical in determining how things play out Sunday. 

• Rejuvenation in Tampa?: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a much-needed “mini bye” and should finally have their secondary fully back and healthy for this matchup. It's also possible Tom Brady could bring  a rejuvenated presence to this Week 9 matchup, with his high-profile divorce from Gisele Bündchen now official.

• PFF Greenline points toward the Bucs as the correct side: Showing 0.8% value at a -110 price. It’s difficult to see this one moving off the key number 3 unless things really go sideways midweek for one of these teams, but there’s still plenty of value on Tampa despite this not being the best of the number. 

A $20 BET ON A TWO-LEG PARLAY WITH COLTS +5.5, BUCS -3 WOULD NET $72.89 AT BETMGM

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