Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 9 Betting Market Movers: Seize value in Bucs -3 vs Rams

Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) looks to pass in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

PFF Greenline still finds value on Tampa Bay -3 vs. Rams, despite this not being the best of the number. 

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We'll likely hear all week, “the sharp side” is on the Colts, and given it's the direction Greenline leans, this looks like a perfect early opportunity to pick up some CLV by kickoff.

Last updated: Nov. 1, 1:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 5 mins

The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 9 have been at critical points in the past.

Away Team Home Team Preseason








PHI HST 5.5 9.5 13 13
MIA CHI 3 3.5 4 4.5
MIN WAS 0 3 3.5 3.5
LAC ATL 7.5 3 3.5 3
IND NE 0 -6.5 -6 -5.5
CAR CIN -7 -9.5 -8.5
GB DET 6 3.5 3.5 3
LV JAX 3 1.5 1.5 1.5
BUF NYJ 7 10.5 12.5 12.5
SEA ARZ -6.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5
LA TB -1.5 -1.5 -3 -3
TEN KC -6 -10.5 -10.5 -12.5
BLT NO 1 3.5 3 2.5

Another valuable datapoint is often the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 9.

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
Rashod Bateman BAL WR foot Week-to-Week
Mark Andrews BAL TE shoulder Day-to-Day
Gus Edwards BAL RB hamstring Questionable
Jordan Poyer BUF S elbow Questionable
Matt Milano BUF LB oblique Day-to-Day
Von Miller BUF ED medical tent Day-to-Day
Stefon Diggs BUF WR medical tent Day-to-Day
Juston Burris CAR S concussion protocol protocol
Justin Fields CHI QB medical tent
Chidobe Awuzie CIN CB knee season-ending
Sam Hubbard CIN ED hand Day-to-Day
Connor McGovern DAL LG ankle Day-to-Day
Anthony Barr DAL LB hamstring Day-to-Day
Jayron Kearse DAL S hip Day-to-Day
Donovan Wilson DAL S muscle cramps Day-to-Day
Brock Wright DET TE concussion protocol
Maurice Alexander DET S ankle
Christian Watson GB WR concussion Protocol
AJ Dillon GB RB knee Day-to-Day
Tyquan Lewis IND ED patella tendon season-ending
Tony Brown IND CB hamstring
Cooper Kupp LA WR ankle expected to play Week 9
Tyler Higbee LA TE neck Day-to-Day
Liam Eichenberg MIA LG sprained MCL Week-to-Week
Irv Smith MIN TE ankle Week-to-Week
Dalvin Tomlinson MIN DI calf Week-to-Week
Adam Thielen MIN WR medical tent Day-to-Day
DeVante Parker NE WR knee sprain Day-to-Day
Josh Uche NE ED hamstring
Adrian Phillips NE S shoulder Day-to-Day
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB medical tent
Nick Williams NYG DI bicep
Kenny Pickett PIT QB knee
Austin Blythe SEA C leg/knee
Teair Tart TEN DI
DeMarcus Walker TEN ED
Amani Hooker TEN S shoulder


Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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There are a few reasons for potential spread movement in this AFC matchup. For one, the current line sits comfortably between 3 and 7 with no key numbers offering much initial resistance in either direction. 

• The Indianapolis Colts fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady Tuesday morning: They rank 29th in EPA per offensive play, mainly because they're the second-worst team in EPA per rush play, despite still having 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor. Rumors circulating about Nyheim Hines‘ potential departure via trade make this a situation where addition by subtraction somehow needs to work out. 

• The perplexing early-week spread movement buys into Indianapolis:  with Cris opening at -6.5, and current consensus already down a full point to 5.5. Part of it could be concerning injury situations with the market digesting news coming out of Week 8. The other part might just be the realization that Sam Ehlinger is exactly what this Colts offense needs with his ability to scramble offsetting struggles in pass protection. 

• Bet Colts +5.5 now: Ehlinger's rushing ability opens up more lanes for Taylor: and the second-year passer seems capable of making just as many throws as the current version of Matt Ryan. We will probably hear all week “the sharp side” is on the Colts, and with that the direction Greenline is leaning seems like the perfect early-week opportunity to play and pick up some CLV by kickoff.  


• Cooper Kupp's ankle: The biggest pending injury situation for Week 9 currently is the status of Cooper Kupp’s ankle, especially with the pitiful performance of the Cincinnati Bengals offense sans Ja’Marr Chase Monday still fresh in every bettors' mind. Kupp has been the only functional part of a disastrous Rams offense that would be completely lost without him. Early reports point toward him playing, but this is a situation where practice status will be critical in determining how things play out Sunday. 

• Rejuvenation in Tampa?: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a much-needed “mini bye” and should finally have their secondary fully back and healthy for this matchup. It's also possible Tom Brady could bring  a rejuvenated presence to this Week 9 matchup, with his high-profile divorce from Gisele Bündchen now official.

• PFF Greenline points toward the Bucs as the correct side: Showing 0.8% value at a -110 price. It’s difficult to see this one moving off the key number 3 unless things really go sideways midweek for one of these teams, but there’s still plenty of value on Tampa despite this not being the best of the number. 


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