Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 8 Betting Market Movers: With or without Russell Wilson, Broncos +3 at Jaguars a value

Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs off the field after the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

• Broncos defense should be able to keep it close against Jaguars: Playing Denver at a plus moneyline price or on the key number 3 looks like one of the best early bets in Week 8. 

• Ehlinger announcement dropped the hook: Colts now sit at the key -3. PFF Greenline thinks this is too drastic, finding value on Indy moneyline, but wait until kickoff for the best price.

• Now is the time to buy into the Vikings, who are  looking for a statement victory as we move toward the latter half of the NFL season. 

Last updated: Tuesday Oct. 25, 11:45 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 6 mins


The goal of our new weekly betting feature is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 8 have been at critical points in the past.

Away Team Home Team Preseason Spread Lookahead Spread Week-of-Open Spread Current Spread
BLT TB -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 1.5
DEN JAX 6.5 -2.5 -3.5 3
ARZ MIN -1 -5.5 -4.5 -3.5
CHI DAL -7 -10 -10.5 -10.5
LV NO 0 -1.5 1.5 2
MIA DET 3 3 3.5 3
PIT PHI -3.5 -9.5 -10.5 -10
NE NYJ 2.5 1.5 1.5 1
CAR ATL 1.5 -6.5 -6.5 -4.5
TEN HST 5.5 3.5 2.5 1.5
WAS IND -5 -5.5 -3.5 -3
SF LA -4.5 -2.5 1.5 1
NYG SEA -2.5 -2.5 -3 -3
GB BUF -4 -8.5 -10.5 -11
CIN CLV 3 2.5 3 3

Another valuable datapoint is often the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 8. 

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question. 

 

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
AJ Terrell ATL CB hamstring week-to-week https://twitter.com/ScottBairNFL/status/1584591669802176513
Dee Alford ATL CB hamstring DTD https://twitter.com/ScottBairNFL/status/1584591669802176513
Jaylinn Hawkins ATL S concussion protocol https://twitter.com/ScottBairNFL/status/1584591669802176513
Mike Ford ATL CB ankle DTD https://twitter.com/DOrlandoAJC/status/1584258828530438144
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB ankle DTD https://twitter.com/augustalstone/status/1584600716546830337
C.J. Henderson CAR CB shoulder https://twitter.com/SteveReedAP/status/1584256614441181184
Juston Burris CAR S groin https://twitter.com/SteveReedAP/status/1584256614441181184
Lucas Patrick CHI C toe DTD https://twitter.com/adamjahns/status/1584709540167421953
Trey Hendrickson CIN ED neck DTD https://twitter.com/LndsPatterson/status/1584470233804582913
David Njoku CLV TE ankle week-to-week https://twitter.com/twithersAP/status/1584584288137138182
Pharaoh Brown CLV TE concussion https://twitter.com/twithersAP/status/1584584288137138182
Jacob Phillips CLV LB pectoral out for season https://twitter.com/ScottPetrak/status/1584595981697691649
Jourdan Lewis DAL CB lisfranc out for season https://twitter.com/jonmachota/status/1584589559022624768
Matt Farniok DAL G/C hamstring 6 weeks https://twitter.com/GehlkenNFL/status/1584589273768275968
Mike Boone DEN RB foot IR https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1584632688849330179
Baron Browning DEN ED hip https://twitter.com/mikeklis/status/1584343008878919681
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR concussion DTD https://twitter.com/PrideOfDetroit/status/1584624248747859972
Allen Lazard GB WR shoulder https://twitter.com/markdanielsWNFL/status/1584270206603780097
Rashan Gary GB ED concussion https://twitter.com/markdanielsWNFL/status/1584270206603780097
Nico Collins HOU WR groin week-to-week https://twitter.com/ChronicleTexans/status/1584401226304983040
Maliek Collins HOU DI chest https://twitter.com/AaronWilson_NFL/status/1584504496628998144
Kenyon Green HOU G chest-shoulder https://twitter.com/AaronWilson_NFL/status/1584504496628998144
Mike Williams LAC WR ankle week-to-week https://twitter.com/LindseyThiry/status/1584338329058754561
JC Jackson LAC CB patellar tendon out for season https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1584662486027993090
Brandon Jones MIA S knee IR https://twitter.com/CameronWolfe/status/1584646354336612352
Deatrich Wise NE ED https://twitter.com/MikeGiardi/status/1584720264411185157
Evan Neal NYG RG knee week-to-week https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1584296641087311872
Ben Bredeson NYG LG knee week-to-week https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1584296641087311872
Daniel Bellinger NYG TE eye week-to-week https://twitter.com/DDuggan21/status/1584630990625902592
Breece Hall NYJ RB knee out for season https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1584702552003776512
Corey Davis NYJ WR knee DTD https://twitter.com/TheJetsWire/status/1584634982676500485
Kwon Alexander NYJ LB https://twitter.com/ZackBlatt/status/1584283307092901888
Alijah Vera-Tucker NYJ RG triceps out for season https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1584627482589888514
James Robinson NYJ RB knee https://twitter.com/TheJaguarsWire/status/1584606103094136832
Levi Wallace PIT CB shoulder https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1584387690090287104
D.K. Metcalf SEA WR knee week-to-week https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1584621134305431552
Phil Haynes SEA G concussion https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1584318057043742720
Uchenna Nwosu SEA ED leg https://twitter.com/Curtis_Crabtree/status/1584324452623716352
Deommodore Lenoir SF CB shoulder https://twitter.com/CamInman/status/1584300799387004928
Talanoa Hufanga SF SS shoulder https://twitter.com/Eric_Branch/status/1584297462054850560
Dre Greenlaw SF LB calf https://twitter.com/mattbarrows/status/1584318156968890370
Deebo Samuel SF WR hamstring DTD https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1584688530097287175
Kyle Juszczyk SF FB finger week-to-week https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1584688530097287175
Russell Gage TB WR hamstring DTD https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/status/1584661162997985280
Antoine Winfield TB S concussion protocol https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/status/1584587408049569794
Mike Evans TB WR ankle DNP https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/status/1584661146317238272
Anthony Chesley TB CB hamstring https://twitter.com/NFLSTROUD/status/1584256737111965696
Ryan Tannehill TEN QB ankle DTD https://twitter.com/terrymc13/status/1584314747302064129
Jeffery Simmons TEN DI ankle https://twitter.com/PaulKuharskyNFL/status/1584282622766637058

 

Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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Denver Broncos (+3, 39) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Last week’s article touched on the Broncos' situation, with Russell Wilson looking very much questionable to start the week, but the line still at -3 for Denver. After flipping and having the Jets favored, they ended up winning by a touchdown in another down performance for the Broncos offense. 

Jags as 3-point favorite on a neutral field is simply too much: The matchup between the • • Broncos and the Jaguars in London is setting up opposite to our approach last week, with Wilson potentially playing for an increasingly desperate Broncos team. For as bad as the Broncos have been, they are still a league-average team, which puts them on par with a Jaguars team that still looks overrated despite coming back down to earth from an early-season high. even if Wilson doesn’t end up playing. Their defense should be able to keep the Broncos in this one, so playing them at a plus price on the moneyline or on the key number three looks like one of the best early-week bets to make. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 49)

One of biggest market changes is between two teams with at least 10-day layoffs: The market appears set on the Cardinals, who swung wildly in the lead up to the opening number this weekend after putting on a defensive showcase vs the New Orleans Saints on “Thursday Night Football.”  The way in which they won Thursday is unsustainable, but the market is also suggesting this has basically been the narrative for the Vikings the entire 2022 season. 

Time to buy Vikings: Both teams have wins in unimpressive ways, but the market seems underwhelmed by a Vikings team that very much sits in the NFC North driver's seat and could be heading toward a No. 2 or 3 seed in the conference. They are currently the league’s healthiest team, and with a quality performance in Week 8 out of their bye, the Vikings would quickly persuade bettors after being discussed as a trendy team set to emerge as a legitimate contender in the NFC. WIth the market still cautious about that outlook, now is the time to buy into the Vikings looking for a statement victory as we move toward the latter half of the NFL season. 

Washington Commanders @ Indianapolis Colts (-3, 40)

Things are already setting up to be weird in IndySam Ehlinger was announced as the starter over Matt Ryan after an offensive performance that left plenty to be desired in Week 7, as the Colts are now the NFL's third-worst offense in EPA per play. 

Market steadily moving in the Commanders' direction after an upset over the Green Bay Packers in Week 7: These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions, with the market adjusting accordingly. The lookahead at -5.5 added half a point from the preseason spread, but it dropped from -4.5 to -3.5 quickly after the prior week performance.

• The Ehlinger announcement dropped the hook, as we now sit at the key -3 on consensus. 

PFF Greenline thinks this is too drastic a move: And finds some value on the Colts moneyline. But this looks like a situation to likely wait until gametime, because even if we don’t get off -3, plenty of movement could still happen on the moneyline. 

A $20 bet on a three-leg parlay with DEN +3, MIN -3.5 and IND ml would net
$125.96 at BetMGM

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