Week 11 NFL odds are live, and the best time to bet them is now — before the lines move. Last week, we lost the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) against the Washington Football Team, as the Football Team won outright. Three of the five teaser legs that had value also lost, including the two legs of a teaser that was one of our locks of the week on the PFF Forecast.
We did correctly pick the under 44.5 in New Orleans Saints versus Tennessee Titans, which closed at 42.5 and landed at 44. That shows how important it is to get the best number. We still have the Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) for Monday Night Football, which is available at -3.5 if you like the Rams.
We’ve been able to identify games where betting early in the week provides closing line value (the line we bet in this article is better than the closing line with respect to the side we bet). On average, we’ve seen over 0.5 points of closing line value per pick. In the long run, this is the best predictor of profitable betting.
The odds for Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season provide some great teaser options and a few spreads to snag early. All our initial reactions and guessing of the lines can be found on the PFF Forecast, which airs LIVE directly after Sunday Night Football and again Wednesday evening.
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Week 11 NFL Football Betting Odds (spread, total)
Find all the current spreads and PFF’s model predictions on our NFL scores page
Thursday Night Football
Sunday 1PM ET
Sunday 4PM ET
Sunday Night Football
Monday Night Football
Week 11 Best Early NFL Bets
There were tons of teasable lines last week, and only two of the six actually cashed. Hopefully in Week 11, quality prevails over quantity. As a reminder, in order for a standard -110 teaser to have value, you need both sides to be expected to hit at a rate of 72.4% (the square root of the break-even 52.4% you need for the whole bet). If you’re getting -120, which is standard, then it’s 73.9%. Without handicapping games, you’re basically asking the six points to get you 25%. That’s hard to do if you’re not crossing 3 or 7 and/or the total is extremely low (i.e., points are worth more).