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NFL Week 11 Odds and Best Bets

Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL odds are live, and the best time to bet them is now — before the lines move. Last week, we lost the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) against the Washington Football Team, as the Football Team won outright. Three of the five teaser legs that had value also lost, including the two legs of a teaser that was one of our locks of the week on the PFF Forecast.

We did correctly pick the under 44.5 in New Orleans Saints versus Tennessee Titans, which closed at 42.5 and landed at 44. That shows how important it is to get the best number. We still have the Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) for Monday Night Football, which is available at -3.5 if you like the Rams.

Related: Why betting early is critical to beating NFL markets via Robert Greer

We’ve been able to identify games where betting early in the week provides closing line value (the line we bet in this article is better than the closing line with respect to the side we bet). On average, we’ve seen over 0.5 points of closing line value per pick. In the long run, this is the best predictor of profitable betting.

The odds for Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season provide some great teaser options and a few spreads to snag early. All our initial reactions and guessing of the lines can be found on the PFF Forecast, which airs LIVE directly after Sunday Night Football and again Wednesday evening.

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Week 11 NFL Football Betting Odds (spread, total)

Find all the current spreads and PFF’s model predictions on our NFL scores page

Bye: Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams

Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5, 46.5)

Sunday 1PM ET

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 43.5)

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3.5, 45.5)

Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43.5)

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (+7, 49.5)

Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-10.5, 46)

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5, 46.5)

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-10.5, 45.5)

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5, 49.5)

Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears (+6, 45)

Sunday 4PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders (PK)

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (+2, 50.5)

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (PK) 

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 48)

Monday Night Football

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5, 50.5)

Week 11 Best Early NFL Bets

Teaser legs:

There were tons of teasable lines last week, and only two of the six actually cashed. Hopefully in Week 11, quality prevails over quantity. As a reminder, in order for a standard -110 teaser to have value, you need both sides to be expected to hit at a rate of 72.4% (the square root of the break-even 52.4% you need for the whole bet). If you’re getting -120, which is standard, then it’s 73.9%. Without handicapping games, you’re basically asking the six points to get you 25%. That’s hard to do if you’re not crossing 3 or 7 and/or the total is extremely low (i.e., points are worth more).


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