Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 11: Best single-game parlays for Sunday's games, including Kadarius Toney's Chiefs breakout

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) takes the field prior to a game against the Tennessee Titans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

SGP — Kadarius Toney TD, Toney 110+ receiving yards, Travis Kelce u765 yards (+2423): With elite upside, it's Toney's turn to breakout in the spotlight as Chiefs' featured receiver.

• Kelce has regularly been limited by the Chargers' Derwin James (1 in 5 games with 77+ receiving yards), and with Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster down, it's on Toney to step up.

SGP — Chris Olave TD, Olave 80+ receiving yards, Andy Dalton 250+ pass yards, Saints win (+2523): With NFL-worst 21.2 pressure rate, Rams should provide Dalton time to find the rookie Olave, PFF's 9th-graded wideout.

Last updated: Nov. 20, 9:00 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins


While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only in the SGP market.


Story: Kadarius Toney breaks out as the featured receiver for Kansas City Chiefs

• As PFF’s Arjun Menon noted, Derwin James has done a terrific job limiting Travis Kelce in their 1-on-1 matchups. If Kelce is limited by James, and with Mecole Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster on the shelf, the Chiefs' targets will flow through Toney.

Kadarius Toney has flashed elite upside when given the opportunities, and our own stable metrics has Toney as 88th percentile in Separation percentage, 90th percentile in yards per route run, and 92nd percentile in Yards After The Catch.

• An elite underlying profile, paired with potential opportunity catching passes from Patrick Mahomes is the recipe for a huge day. 

• Adding in the Chargers moneyline more than triples our odds (the other legs are playable as its own parlay at +2423), and if Kelce is locked up and Toney is having a huge day, it likely means the Chargers are keeping this game close enough for the Chiefs to be passing –or better yet, the Chiefs are passing because they are chasing points. 

FanDuel SGP build (+8170)

• Kadarius Toney TD

• Kadarius Toney 110+ Yards Receiving 

• Travis Kelce Under 76.5 Receiving

• Chargers moneyline

FanDuel SGP build II (+2423)

• Kadarius Toney TD

• Kadarius Toney 110+ Yards Receiving 

• Travis Kelce Under 76.5 Receiving 


Story: Bengals passing attack leads way in win

• The Pittsburgh Steelers force teams to throw deep and are one of the NFL's worst units in defending explosive plays. And this Cincinnati Bengals team throws the 3rd-most over expected, meaning there should be plenty of volume to attack a very beatable Pittsburgh Defense. 

Cameron Sutton, Arthur Maulet, and Levi Wallace are projected to be the three starting corners for the Steelers  — all of whom have been in the bottom of the league in Successful Coverage Over Expected. 

• It is no wonder, then, the Steelers secondary is allowing the 3rd-most targets and 3rd-most yards to receivers. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins have combined for 75% of the WR targets since Ja'Marr Chase went down. Look for the production to flow through Boyd and Higgins. 

FanDuel SGP build (+2035)

• Joe Burrow 300+ Yards Passing

• Tyler Boyd 90+ Yards Receiving 

• Tee Higgins 80+ Yards Receiving 

• Bengals moneyline


Story: Saints lean on rookie Chris Olave, passing game en route to win

• As Tej Seth highlighted, Alvin Kamara has struggled this year, one of the least explosive runners in the NFL. This could be an issue against a Rams defense allowing the 7th-fewest Yards Per Carry.

• If New Orleans turns to the passing game, the production will flow through Chris Olave, who has nearly one-quarter share of the Saints' total targets. The matchup is unimposing with a Rams unit that's middle of the pack in production allowed to WRs, but no matchup should take us off Olave (9th in PFF grade). 

• This could be the spot for the Saints to get going, as Andy Dalton has been terrific when not under pressure and this Rams defense has an NFL worst 21.2% pressure rate. 

FanDuel SGP build (+2523)

• Andy Dalton 250+ Yards Passing

• Chris Olave 80+ Yards Receiving 

• Chris Olave TD

• Saints moneyline

 

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