Thursday Night Football is expected to bring plenty of points, at least according to the market. The total opened at 42.5 and steadily climbed throughout the week, reaching as high as 45 by Thursday morning, with most books now split between 44.5 and 45.

Ole Miss enters this matchup off a focused post-bye win, with the line tightening after opening well below the summer lookahead of 10.5. With Trinidad Chambliss making his first road SEC start and Georgia possibly overvalued after a swing-heavy Week 7 win, there’s value in backing the Rebels at +7.5.

This AFC North battle is set up well for wide receiver D.K. Metcalf to see plenty of volume.

A contest between the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks is among the Week 7 games that present early betting value.

Josh Allen and this offense has  been playing at a high-level — third in team PFF offensive grade (80.5) — but it  may be without one of its top weapons this week in Dalton Kincaid, who carries a questionable designation into the game. That could present an issue against this Falcons defense that has allowed the fewest catches and yards to tight ends this season.

Top SGP picks for Week 6, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Josh Jacobs also draws a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom 10 across nearly every major category. With one of the safest roles in football, a soft matchup and a perfect game script, there’s no need to overthink it—back Josh Jacobs to find the end zone.

Matthew Stafford has excelled against man coverage this season, averaging a dominant 0.50 EPA per play versus man coverage. He now faces a Ravens defense that plays man at one of the league’s highest rates and is arguably at its weakest point all season.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting into the swing of things, the PFF Player Prop Tool gives you actionable takes to beat the sportsbooks.

Tampa Bay enters Week 6 with the defensive profile, pressure rate, and matchup edges to justify laying 9.5 points. With a hobbled Mac Jones facing a blitz-heavy front and the 49ers struggling without Nick Bosa, this game sets up perfectly for the Bucs to dominate both sides of the ball.

Utilizing the new PFF Player Prop Tool, here are two projections to target ahead of NFL Week 6 action.

Week 6 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

Injuries, weather, and public pick releases are just a few factors that can swing numbers. But spotting early signals—before prices settle into full efficiency—is where betting edges are made. Below, we’ll walk through how notable market-maker openers have shifted since Sunday and what those moves might be telling us.

Across 209 non-anytime-touchdown bets with an edge of 10% or higher, the tool delivered a 57.9% hit rate (121-88) and netted 17.9 units of profit in Week 5.

Cam Skattebo’s role in the Giants’ offense continues to grow, especially with key injuries thinning the receiving corps. He’s coming off another strong performance as a pass-catcher and ranks third among running backs in PFF receiving grade this season. Even with Tyrone Tracy returning, Skattebo should remain heavily involved in the passing game this week.

Early in the season, markets are especially volatile as oddsmakers and bettors alike search for a true read on each team. Big swings are common, and while knowing that lines move is useful, the real edge comes from understanding why they move. This information can shape your stance and identify the right entry points.