NFL Week 11 Betting: Best early bets before lines move

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Week 10 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 11. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5) [Total: 46.5]

Best Bet: Over 46.5 

The NFL's first-ever Spain game may feature a lower total than if the contest were played stateside. Nevertheless, this matchup should have no shortage of points, considering the level of defenses the Commanders and Dolphins are fielding. 

The Commanders' defensive struggles continue to be exacerbated with each passing blowout. Since Week 7, Washington ranks dead last in EPA per play allowed (0.344) and touchdown drive rate allowed (45.0%). These issues will take center stage against a Dolphins offense that just hung 30 points on the Bills, behind an explosive performance from running back De'Von Achane. And that's without mentioning the one-game suspension for Daron Payne following his ejection against the Lions. His absence leaves the Commanders' unit even more short-handed. 

Miami resides in a similar space defensively, having surrendered the sixth-most yards per play (5.9). They are one of six teams to have allowed a score on more than 45% of opposing drives. While Marcus Mariota may not be the top option to lead the Commanders‘ offense, he is a capable quarterback. With Mariota calling the signals, the team's offense ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play and touchdown drive rate.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos [Total: 43.5]

Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5

The Chiefs are coming off a bye, and head coach Andy Reid has historically dominated teams in that situation. The team's offense is playing some of its best football, as Patrick Mahomes has put together six straight games of averaging more than seven yards per dropback, with a PFF overall grade in the 90th percentile among quarterbacks over the span. Kansas City's run game is also turning it up a notch, giving the team a well-rounded offense for this matchup with the Broncos.

Denver's offense struggled immensely against the Raiders in Week 10, producing -0.23 EPA per play and averaging only 3.9 yards per play. The Broncos' defense will be without injured all-world cornerback Patrick Surtain II, so Mahomes' scrambling ability should be able to mitigate the strength of that unit. Meanwhile, Denver's offense does not appear capable of matching Mahomes in a must-win game for the Chiefs.