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Here are our top SGP picks for Week 10, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.
Jets QB Justin Fields cooks against the pass-funnel Browns
The Browns have been one of the league’s biggest pass funnels this season, ranking third in the differential between run and pass EPA and success rate — meaning they’re far easier to throw against than to run on.
While the Jets have been extremely run-heavy overall, they’ve posted two games with pass rates over expected in the past four weeks, leaving some potential for added volume even if it’s not the most likely outcome.
Cleveland has also played one of the highest rates of man coverage in the NFL this season, a tendency that should play to Justin Fields’ strengths.
While Justin Fields has struggled against zone coverage, he’s been near league average versus man, producing roughly 0.2 EPA per play more than he does against zone.
This Browns defense, while dominant at home, has consistently struggled on the road under Jim Schwartz. This year has been no exception, as they have allowed 0.25 points per play more away from Cleveland.
Not much needs to go right for Fields against a Browns pass-funnel defense that’s giving up 7.6 yards per attempt over the past month, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.
SGP Build (95-1 on DraftKings)
- QB Justin Fields: 32+ attempts
- QB Justin Fields: 260+ passing yards
- New York Jets: -3.5
Kyle Monangai takes over the Chicago Bears backfield
Monangai has been a revelation for the Bears over the past few weeks, as Chicago has quietly led the NFL in EPA per rush over the last month.
Monangai has benefited from terrific blocking but has maximized those opportunities, emerging as one of the NFL’s most explosive running backs.
Now he draws a matchup with a Giants defense that ranks among the league’s worst at forcing blocking mistakes and sits last in both rush success rate and EPA allowed per rush. With D’Andre Swift nursing an injury and the workload already tilting toward Monangai, this sets up as a breakout spot — a chance for him to fully take over the Bears’ backfield in a dream matchup.
SGP Build 1 (24-1 DraftKings)
- RB Kyle Monangai: 120+ rushing yards
- RB D'Andre Swift: Under 51.5 rushing yards
SGP Build 2 (140-1 DraftKings)
- RB Kyle Monangai: 120+ rushing yards
- RB Kyle Monangai: 2 touchdowns
- RB D'Andre Swift: Under 51.5 rushing yards
Chris Olave enjoys a breakout game with expanded opportunities
Chris Olave has yet to deliver a true breakout performance, but a matchup with the Panthers sets up as a sneaky-good spot for both him and the Saints’ offense.
Olave has been heavily targeted against zone coverage — which Carolina plays at the third-highest rate in the NFL — giving him a clear path to volume in Week 10.
As a result, while Olave’s separation numbers have been uncharacteristically average, he’s still been one of the league’s most productive receivers against zone coverage. With Rashid Shaheed traded and additional targets opening up, Olave is also likely to take over the downfield role — an area where teams have consistently attacked the Panthers, who have allowed an average depth of target two yards higher over the past three weeks than in the previous six.
SGP Build: 36-1 on DraftKings
- QB Tyler Shough: 260+ passing yards
- WR Chris Olave: 110+ receiving yards
- WR Chris Olave: Olave anytime TD
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