- A new era for this AFC East rivalry: The Mike Vrabel–Aaron Glenn era begins. New England isn’t just strong in the standings; they’re also one of the most profitable teams to bet on this season, with a 70% cover rate. Gang Green isn’t ready to lie down yet after breaking its seven-game losing streak with back-to-back outright wins as the underdog.
- Breece Hall to feature as a pass-catcher: The Patriots boast a strong defensive front that has limited running backs to the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. However, their coverage hasn't been nearly as strong, as they’ve surrendered the most receptions (59) to running backs this year.
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New York Jets vs New England Patriots (-12.5) [Total: 43.5]
Game Overview
Although the Jets and Patriots have a bitter history, new leadership on both sides signals a new era in this AFC East rivalry.
In his first season as head coach, Mike Vrabel has taken the Patriots from a four-win team in the basement of the AFC East to the upper echelon of the NFL, now atop the division amid a seven-game win streak.
New England isn’t just strong in the standings; they’re also one of the most profitable teams to bet on this season, as they have posted a 70% cover rate. However, their performances at home have left bettors empty-handed at times, as they have posted a 2-3 record against the spread at home.
Needless to say, the Jets’ first season under Aaron Glenn hasn’t been fruitful. The Jets are now without two foundational defensive pieces in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, and they field an offense desperate for production, so the Jets' outlook is grim. Yet, Gang Green isn’t ready to lie down after breaking its seven-game losing streak with back-to-back outright wins as the underdog.
Those outcomes led New York to cover three of its last four games and pushed its overall cover rate above 50%. The team has thrived as the underdog, posting a 5-2 ATS record when receiving points.
Some trends may paint the Jets in a favorable light for this matchup. This 12.5-point spread is indicative of how well the Patriots have played against far superior competition. New England stands among the league leaders in offensive points scored (174) and average victory margin (+7.3), ranking top-five in each category. New York ranks near the bottom of the NFL in both metrics and is one of just five teams to score under 100 points on offense.
Even still, the result of this contest will likely hinge on whether the Jets stick with Justin Fields, who has struggled as a passer for much of the season, or turn to veteran Tyrod Taylor, who was dealing with an injury but has looked competent as the offense’s signal-caller.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets: Over 2.5 receptions (+122)
With Garrett Wilson still dealing with a knee injury and new acquisitions at receiver still getting acclimated to the system, the Jets will be limited for viable weapons in the passing game, leaving Breece Hall in a promising position to be more involved as a pass-catcher.
The Patriots possess a strong defensive front that has limited running backs to the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season. However, that hasn’t been the case in coverage. They’ve surrendered the most receptions (59) to backs in the NFL this season.
While Hall hasn’t been heavily featured as a receiver out of the backfield this season, the Jets look his way more frequently when playing from behind. His 19.8% target rate when trailing ranks second on the team behind only Garrett Wilson (minimum 20 routes run). With the Jets entering as two-score underdogs, there will likely be plenty of opportunity for the talented back to haul in passes.
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