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Here are two props that stand out ahead of Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: Over 75.5 receiving yards
St. Brown has established himself as one of the NFL's elite receivers and has another favorable matchup this week against the Washington Commanders. The fifth-year player has been one of the most productive wide receivers from the slot, racking up 357 yards over eight games this season, good for the second most in the league. He faces off with a Commanders defense that ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed to slot receivers.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff targets St. Brown at one of the highest rates in the NFL; his 72 targets through Week 9 are tied for the fifth most among wide receivers. Week 1 aside, St. Brown has been targeted at least seven times in every game, with four of those outings featuring double-digit targets. The Goff-to-St. Brown connection has been lethal. The completion rate for the pair is 81.9%, good for third best among wideouts who have been targeted at least 30 times this season.
Meanwhile, the Commanders rank 31st in the NFL in PFF coverage grade (40.2). St. Brown will likely see his most targets from the slot against cornerback Mike Sainristil, who has struggled in his second season. The 2024 second-round pick out of Michigan ranks 98th among 112 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF coverage grade (49.5). He has let up 413 yards in coverage across 293 snaps.
Coming off their second loss in the past three games, the Lions should make their star receiver a focal point early and often as the team looks to get back on track in the second half of the season.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: Over 36.5 receiving yards
Kincaid has been one of the league’s most productive tight ends through the air this season, ranking seventh in receiving yards (411), despite playing fewer games than all but one of the six players ahead of him. This week, he faces off with a Dolphins defense that has struggled to cover tight ends all year.
Kincaid’s 80.1 PFF receiving grade ranks fifth among 54 qualifying tight ends, and Miami's defense ranks last in yards per route run allowed to the position. Through Week 9, the defense has already seen six opposing tight ends record at least 59 receiving yards in a game this season.
Also working in Kincaid’s favor is his prowess when Josh Allen is blitzed. He ranks sixth among tight ends in yards per route run when facing the blitz this season, while Miami is one of the more aggressive blitzing defenses, with the third-highest blitz rate on pass plays.
We’ve already seen Kincaid exploit this matchup once this season, catching five of six targets for 66 yards and a touchdown back in Week 3. He is coming off his best game as a pro last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, bringing in all six targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid should be heavily featured again in Week 10.
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