They say a lot of things.
You should eat your vegetables. You should say your prayers. And you should judge a quarterback by the kind of work he does on third and fourth downs. You know, the ‘clutch' downs.
Yet very little is made of it despite the information being right there. I didn’t want team conversion rates or quarterback completion percentage. I wanted to know when a quarterback drops back to pass on third and fourth down, what rate of those are converted for either a first down or a touchdown.
So I found out… and needless to say, the results were interesting.
Before I get into the best and worst, some notes:
– This only includes regular season data.
– When a quarterback scrambles on third or fourth down it is counted. Designed runs are not.
– A quarterback needed to face at least 100 drop-backs in this situation to qualify.
Peerless Peyton
The playoffs didn’t turn out the way he wanted, but during the regular season there wasn’t a quarterback in the league who converted a higher percentage of third or fourth downs into first downs or touchdowns than Peyton Manning. In all, 79 of his 161 drop-backs in these situations ended in success for Denver; 49.07 percent, for comparisons sake.
That put Matt Ryan into second place with a score of 46.45 percent, and it will surprise some to see Tony Romo in fifth at 43.94. A bigger shock, however, comes with the guy who finished seventh and led all rookies.
Russell Wilson
Yes, just when you think you can’t say any more nice things about him, you discover a new stat that does just that for you. Still, he’s not the only rookie who can be proud of his performance with Andrew Luck 10th overall, though it’s worth noting that Robert Griffin III could only manage the 19th best score, with Ryan Tannehill 23rd and Brandon Weeden achieving the fourth-lowest score.
Heinous Henne
And, right at the bottom is none other than Chad Henne who had his opportunity to make the Jaguars' fan base love him, and quite frankly failed. He turned just 31of his 117 third- or fourth-down drop-backs into first downs or touchdowns. Just not good enough.
A more shocking name is the guy who finished just above him. You see, while Andy Dalton made the playoffs he didn’t exactly do it by excelling in clutch situations. Indeed, his score is worryingly low for a franchise quarterback for whom many are wondering if he’s already reached his ceiling.
Here’s the full list:
[table id=735 /]
Obviously there’s more that goes into judging quarterback play than just one stat, and not all third and fourth down situations are created equal. But it’s an interesting look at an aspect of the game that is all too often left to gut feel, as opposed to deep study.
Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled
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