Something no one would have predicted happened to the Jaguars last season; going in to their week 15 matchup against the Colts, the Jags were in possession of a better record than the AFC South’s perennial power. It didn’t last long. After being beat by the Colts in week 15, Jacksonville lost their next two games and ended up missing the playoffs for their third straight season.
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Up from the mat after last year’s disappointing end, they face as competitive a division as ever. The fact it’s so competitive isn’t all bad news for the Jags, however, for one thing it means the Colts might not run away with it as they so often have.
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Five Reasons to be Confident
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1.) Covering All the Bases
There are a lot of incredible athletes that play tight end in the NFL. You have your maulers who specialize in blocking, your quick-twitch athletes who serve as physically imposing receivers, but rarely do you find them in the same player. Marcedes Lewis is one of those rare specimens. Lewis finished second in PFF’s overall tight end rankings with a +17.2 overall grade with Top-10 marks in both blocking and receiving. After having lost Mike Sims-Walker to free agency, expect Jacksonville to rely on both skill sets as much as ever. With question marks at receiver, the Jags will need to be able to rely on his receiving especially around the goal line. Additionally, with fewer threats at the receiver position, expect Lewis’ blocking to come in to play as defenses can afford to focus more heavily on stopping Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jags’ running game.
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2.) Covering All the Bases Pt. 2
Speaking of MJD, after his third straight season finishing in the Top 10 of PFF’s overall running back grades, it’s time to talk about how well-rounded a back he is. In the past three seasons, Jones-Drew has not finished with a negative grade in any of PFF’s four major running back categories: not in running, passing, blocking, or penalties. He did miss the first two games of his career at the end of last season due to a torn meniscus in his knee, but after offseason surgery he says he feels better than ever which bodes well for the human bowling ball. He’s been kept out of preseason action to limit his contact, but given his consistency and durability over the course of his career, MJD – as always – is reason for Jags fans to be confident.
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3.) Solid Linebacking Corps
Daryl Smith wasn’t as good last year as when he finished first on PFF’s overall list of 4-3 OLBs in 2009. That said, he still had a great year finishing with a +8.3 overall grade on 986 snaps. With the additions of free agents Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, they have added two players who bring unique skills to the table. Though Posluszny’s performance dropped off last season when asked to play in the 3-4 defense, he finished near the top of the league one season ago playing the middle linebacker role he’ll play for the Jaguars. Kirk Morrison played well last season, but struggled in coverage – an area Posluszny excelled at in 2009 (+6.5 coverage grade). Session’s run defense will be a step down from Justin Durant (who signed with the Lions in free agency). That shouldn’t be a surprise with Session coming from the Colts who have been in the bottom third of run defense for the past three seasons – but he is able to rush the passer better than most. As Khaled highlighted in his free agency piece, Session has gotten pressure on 29.1% of his 79 blitzes over the past three years.
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4.) Secondary Help Please
Despite missing the first four games of the season, Don Carey still managed to finish as the lowest graded safety at -13.9. Insert free agent Dawan Landry, who finished with a +11.9 grade, and breathe a sigh of relief. Landry is a consistent player, producing a positively rated game 12 times last season; more positive games than Courtney Greene, Sean Considine, and Don Carey had combined last season. Landry doesn’t excel in pass coverage, which is what the Jaguars have seriously been missing, but after playing five years in a strong Ravens defense, he introduces leadership and confidence to a position group that has sorely lacked it.
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5.) Leading the Way
I know, I know, fullbacks probably haven’t belonged on a list of reasons to be confident about a team since watching football with your grandfather on his black-and-white TV. Nonetheless, Greg Jones has been as good at the position as anyone, finishing as our top-graded blocker in two of the last three seasons. So often we want to sweep fullbacks under the rug since, admittedly, there is nothing sexy about what they do. But Jones-Drew certainly wouldn’t have been able to put up all the numbers he has without his battering ram leading the way. It may sound like faint praise, but if Jones-Drew does have to miss more games due to injury, you better believe Rashad Jennings will be better off with Jones out in front of him.
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5 Reasons to be Concerned
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1.) The Problem With Blaine Gabbert …
Drafting a quarterback in the Top 10 is rarely the sign of a team knocking on Lombardi’s door. The pick may have all the upside in the world, but none of it is for this season. At the moment, the Jaguars plan to continue to use David Garrard as the starter. So, while Blaine Gabbert sits with his long hair tucked neatly into his hat on the sideline, every mistake Garrard makes becomes magnified. After every incompletion, every interception, every loss, some contingency of media and fans will question whether or not Gabbert is the better man for the job. Quarterback controversy is a poison pill for a football team looking to make strides in the right direction, it can divide a locker room in half and lose coaches’ jobs … just ask Denver. Jacksonville just better hope Garrard puts up numbers like he did in 2007 when he threw 18 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That would prevent most problems, other than having your top draft choice spent on a guy holding a clipboard rather than a football.
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2.) When Investment ≠ Return
So I just talked about the problem of spending a top draft pick on player who may not see the field, but not too different from that is spending a top pick on a player who underperforms when he’s actually out there. Eugene Monroe was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, but has not performed to his draft billing. In his rookie season, he finished with an overall grade of -4.3 and allowed a total of 43 quarterback disruptions (nine sacks, eight hits, and 26 pressures). Last season he regressed in virtually every major category. He finished the year with an overall grade of -15.6 and allowed 46 quarterback disruptions (five sacks, 13 hits, and 29 pressures). To add insult to injury, Monroe’s rookie contract included $25 million guaranteed. Certainly not the kind of return on investment you can make a living with.
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3.) A Little “Short” at Receiver
PFF’s Steve Wyremski interviewed Mike Thomas a few weeks ago and one of the key takeaways was that he uses people’s doubt about his size (5’8” 195 lbs) to fuel him. If that’s the case, then I think I’m about to fill his gas tank. If his numbers explode this season, just tell the Jaguars to call me for my address before they send the check. Seriously, though, I think Thomas is a good receiver as evidenced by his numbers and +4.9 grade last season, but don’t think that he can carry the Jaguars as their lead receiver. It’s not about injury concerns–he’s as solid as a rock–but concerns that he’ll be moved from the slot position where he had his success last season. Sims-Walker accounted for 702 snaps in 2010, and with his departure those snaps have to be made up by a collection of receivers who haven’t played, have played very little, or finished last season with a negative grade. Needless to say, it’s a tall task that requires more than just a short answer.
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4.) Secondary Help Still Needed
The Jaguars brought in Dawan Landry–which is great–but if Landry is a Band-Aid then the problems in Jacksonville’s secondary require stiches. Nothing has changed at cornerback for the Jags which is to say that their projected starters are a combined -13.5 against the pass. It’s not a recipe for success in today’s NFL, and when you play Peyton Manning twice a season it’s the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun and volunteering to go first. In his first fully season in the past three years, Rasheen Mathis was on the field long enough to question if the days of him being a solid NFL starting cornerback are escaping him like too many top receivers are. On the other side of the field is Derek Cox, who is only entering his third season, but has already been trialed by fire. In his rookie season he finished with the worst cover grade of any cornerback in the NFL (-16.4) and followed it up with a -6.4 coverage grade this season. Cox showed improvement after burying the bar six feet deep in his inaugural campaign, but if confidence is a requirement for players to perform at their best, then he may have been ruined by his first two seasons.
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5.) Depth at Defensive End
Aaron Kampman was signed to a big contract last season and was proving to be the right kind of investment until suffering an ACL injury that ended his season after eight games. Since this is his second straight season cut short by the same injury, the lack of depth at defensive end is concerning. Though Jeremy Mincey (+7.7) looked good filling for Kampman, there is too little beyond him. One interesting addition is Matt Roth, who we have seen playing defensive end during his last preseason game. Roth was a PFF “sleeper” free agent this year that we’ve marked as having played well in his career, except he was usually playing outside linebacker in a 3-4. It’s too early to say whether Roth will succeed as a defensive end in a 4-3, but he wouldn’t have to do much to be better than the departed Derrick Harvey who registered fewer quarterback hits in three years combined than Kampman did in a half season.
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The Jaguars are a good team with the potential to reach the playoffs. After using their top pick to select a quarterback, however, you have to question if this is a team more ready to take aim at 2012.
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Follow Rodney on Twitter: @PFF_RodneyHart … and be sure to follow our main Twitter feed as well: @ProFootbalFocus
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