- Few rookie runners have been as elite as Ashton Jeanty: In PFF history, only four first-year rushers have earned a 90.0-plus overall PFF grade.
- A great Year 1 scenario: Jeanty joins an improved offense behind a solid offensive line, an innovative play-caller and no competition.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
During the 2024 NFL season, a running back renaissance emerged, propelling teams to playoff heights and invigorating new life into a once-discarded position. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs and more powered playoff contenders with both high volume stats and impressive analytical marks, each amassing 84.7-plus PFF rushing grades and 30-plus runs of 10 or more yards. The position’s resurgence also carried over to the wider hashes of the college ranks via Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty’s 2024 campaign was one for the ages, producing a 96.6 PFF rushing grade, 1,970 yards after contact — more than any player registered in regular rushing yards — and 152 missed tackles forced, all of which reset PFF College records. Jeanty’s otherworldly performance catalyzed Boise State’s College Football Playoff berth and landed him as the sixth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
While ground game success was a driving storyline of last football season, so too was the All-Pro-level play of rookie Jayden Daniels, whose 90.6 overall PFF grade fueled the Washington Commanders’ improbable trip to the NFC championship. Daniels authored arguably the best rookie quarterback season in league history a year ago — and now Jeanty may be able to do the same at his position in 2025.
To set the table for Jeanty, it’s important to contextualize the mountains he’ll have to climb to assert himself as the best first-year RB of all time. The most obvious stat to follow will be rushing yards, and the current record holder id Eric Dickerson at 1,808 in 1983. Only five rookie runners have eclipsed the 1,600-yard threshold, including George Rogers (1981) and Ottis Anderson (1979).
While Dickerson, Rogers and Anderson were all phenomenal newcomers, their play unfortunately preceded the dawn of PFF’s player tracking, which started in 2006. As a result of that cutoff, their greatness can’t fully be measured in advanced stats, which will be the barometer for Jeanty’s success relative to modern rushers.
The 1,000-foot view of Jeanty’s landmarks is that, in PFF history, very few rookie running backs have produced elite first seasons. In fact, only four such players have reached a 90.0 PFF rushing grade (min. 200 snaps) in Year 1, and just five have amassed a 90.0 overall PFF grade.
| Overall PFF Grade | PFF Rushing Grade | |
| De'Von Achane (2023) | 92.1 | 93.1 |
| Alfred Morris (2012) | 91 | 90.4 |
| Adrian Peterson (2007) | 90.8 | 90.5 |
| Bucky Irving (2024) | 90.8 | 90 |
| Alvin Kamara (2017) | 90.4 | 85.3 |
Based on Jeanty’s 2025 season marks — a 94.9 overall PFF grade with the aforementioned 96.6 PFF rushing grade — he’d easily reset both lists if he replicates his performance with Las Vegas in 2025. Another piece of good news is that among the 12 rookie rushers to eclipse an 85.0 overall PFF grade, six have done so since 2017, including Irving and Achane in the past two seasons.
Jeanty’s bread and butter is forcing missed tackles, whether via eluding a defender with a juke or simply bowling them over and fighting through arm tackles. Based on his proclivity for making defenders miss, Jeanty is in a good position to climb that rookie list, too.
No rookie RB in PFF history has ever forced 70 or more missed tackles, and Josh Jacobs’ 69 is the most since 2006. Moreover, just seven first-year running backs have secured even 60 missed tackles forced. Jeanty registered a staggering .405 missed tackles forced per carry mark last year, and if that translates while he receives at least 200 carries, he’d sit around 91 missed tackles forced in his first year with the Las Vegas Raiders. There’s a real chance that Jeanty could stand alone in PFF history by at least 25 missed tackles forced.
Another Jeanty specialty is his ability to keep battling for yards after contact, which dovetails with him forcing missed tackles. With the Broncos last year, Jeanty accumulated 5.25 yards after contact per carry; for context, in PFF history, no qualified NFL running back (regardless of experience) has ever secured 5.00 yards after carry per attempt. Since 2006, only four nascent RBs have reached 4.0 yards after contact per carry per carry, with Achane’s 4.94 mark in 2023 the best among qualifiers. There will likely be some skill-level adjustment for Jeanty, but he’ll still have a strong chance to at least join the 4.00 club.
What Irving accomplished last season was particularly remarkable given that he wasn’t the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ clear-cut RB1 to start 2024. In Jeanty’s case, though, he’s on a team that ranked dead last in PFF rushing grade the year before with effectively zero current competition. Jeanty probably won’t near Dickerson’s 390 carries in 1983, but there’s a strong chance he eclipses at least 300 attempts. As for PFF records, the top carry mark for a rookie RB is Morris with 351, and only eight first-year rushers have hit 300, including Najee Harris in 2021.
Jeanty’s individual prowess is most important, but his external offensive structure is also critical. Jeanty will be inserted into an improved Raiders offense with a decent run-blocking offensive line, and one not too dissimilar from what he experienced at Boise State. Consider how the Raiders’ and Broncos’ OL compared in 2024.
| OL PFF Run-Blocking Grade (Rank) | Team PFF Run-Blocking Grade (Rank) | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 68.6 (17/32) | 63.5 (20/32) |
| Boise State Broncos | 68.7 (56/134) | 64.6 (62/134) |
The Raiders’ infusion of talent also renders Jeanty’s situation more encouraging. Having a significantly better quarterback in Geno Smith (81.9 PFF passing grade) with potential early impact draft picks in wide receiver Jack Bech (74.5 PFF run-blocking grade) and tackle Charles Grant (90.4 PFF run-blocking grade) should generate a more balanced and explosive offense under new OC Chip Kelly. Even moving Jackson Powers-Johnson (70.4 PFF run-blocking grade) back to center and returning Jordan Meredith (78.4 PFF run-blocking grade) for a full season are boons.
Speaking of Kelly, the 2025 season will mark his return to the NFL after winning the national championship at Ohio State, where his running back tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins was an anchor. Kelly very well may install a distinct scheme as he transitions back to the pro ranks for the first time since 2016, but his run concept distribution aligns well with Jeanty’s offense at Boise State in 2024.
| Ohio State | Boise State | |
| Outside Zone | 14% | 29% |
| Man | 18% | 20% |
| Inside Zone | 29% | 18% |
| Counter | 14% | 12% |
Frankly, Jeanty is so formidable that he could fit essentially any scheme. The good news for Kelly is that, since 2023, Jeanty churned out an 84.0 PFF rushing grade or better on each of the above concepts, including a 96.7 mark on outside zones and 94.6 on counters.
All of the elements discussed seem highly bullish for Jeanty to turn out the best rookie RB season since at least 2006, if not ever. At the same time, the recent track record of highly selected players at the position in their first years isn’t the most promising.
Since 2006, 17 running backs have been selected in the first 16 picks of a draft, but only one (Peterson) has registered a 90.0-plus PFF rushing grade as a rookie. In fact, 14 of those 17 players didn’t even reach an 80.0 PFF rushing grade in their inaugural seasons, and nine didn’t hit 70.0. For instance, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette each produced a sub-65.0 PFF rushing grade as they broke into the league in 2017.
Still, it might be optimistic for Jeanty that recent top-12 picks at running back have fared solidly as rookies. Saquon Barkley hit the ground running in 2018 with an 85.2 overall PFF grade and an 83.8 PFF rushing grade, while Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson both secured at least a 75.1 PFF rushing grade in 2023.
Given how unbelievable Jeanty’s career at Boise State was, expectations will be sky high for what he can accomplish in his first NFL season in Las Vegas. Jeanty faces tough competition to unseat for the title of the league’s best back in his first year, but he should barrel toward recent (if not historic) rookie running back records with little in his path.
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