- One of the best quarterbacks of the PFF era: Rodgers' career has been defined by an extraordinary ability to blend aggression with ball security. Among 98 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 dropbacks since PFF began charting in 2006, he ranks third in big-time throw rate (6.1%) and fourth in turnover-worthy play rate (2.2%).
- Things will be far from easy: Rodgers will be the most capable leader this offense has had since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and he’s a safe bet to orchestrate a more structured, efficient attack. But expectations should be tempered. The days of superhuman playmaking — both inside and outside the pocket — may be behind him, especially behind an offensive line that featured just one player with a 70.0-plus PFF grade last season.
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Aaron Rodgers is headed to Pittsburgh.
The four-time NFL MVP is signing a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The move comes after months of speculation and sets the stage for Rodgers to join his third NFL franchise, one week before the team’s mandatory minicamp. He’s expected to fly to Pittsburgh on Friday and sign the deal before next week’s activities.
The framework of the contract has been in place for months, according to NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero.
Aaron Rodgers: PFF grades by season
| Season | Team | Snaps | PFF grade | PFF passing grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NYJ | 1,031 | 77.8 | 76.3 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 4 | 39.4 | 41.1 |
| 2022 | GB | 1,068 | 77.7 | 75.9 |
| 2021 | GB | 1,039 | 89.4 | 87.0 |
| 2020 | GB | 1,163 | 95.1 | 94.7 |
| 2019 | GB | 1,181 | 83.7 | 82.1 |
| 2018 | GB | 1,012 | 89.0 | 86.3 |
| 2017 | GB | 417 | 79.2 | 74.9 |
| 2016 | GB | 1,264 | 91.4 | 90.9 |
| 2015 | GB | 1,278 | 75.2 | 71.6 |
| 2014 | GB | 1,121 | 93.3 | 91.7 |
| 2013 | GB | 645 | 85.8 | 85.0 |
| 2012 | GB | 1,196 | 89.1 | 88.7 |
| 2011 | GB | 995 | 92.7 | 92.6 |
| 2010 | GB | 1,142 | 91.3 | 91.6 |
| 2009 | GB | 1,115 | 86.0 | 85.3 |
| 2008 | GB | 1,039 | 79.2 | 80.8 |
| 2007 | GB | 51 | 66.1 | 62.4 |
| 2006 | GB | 36 | 30.3 | 29.3 |
Selected in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft out of the University of California, Rodgers spent the first 17 seasons of his career with the Green Bay Packers, where he established himself as one of the most efficient and dynamic quarterbacks in league history.
But after nearly two decades in Green Bay, Rodgers was then traded to the New York Jets in 2023 in a move meant to revive the franchise, but the plan unraveled just four snaps into his debut when he suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.
He returned in 2024 to post a 77.8 PFF grade, tied for 14th among 44 qualifying quarterbacks. Vintage Rodgers it was not, but it was a sign that he can still operate at a starting-caliber level. He completed 368 of his 584 pass attempts (63.0%) for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, finishing with 26 big-time throws to just 12 turnover-worthy plays.
A superhuman ability to make plays and protect the ball
Rodgers' career has been defined by an extraordinary ability to blend aggression with ball security. Among 98 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 dropbacks since PFF began charting in 2006, he ranks third in big-time throw rate (6.1%) and fourth in turnover-worthy play rate (2.2%).
That combination — elite-level playmaking without the usual risk — has been the backbone of the future Hall of Famer's success. He has graded above 80.0 in 11 of his 19 NFL seasons, with three of the eight exceptions coming in years where he played fewer than 100 snaps. He’s graded above 85.0 in 10 of those campaigns and cleared 90.0 five times, including a 95.1 overall grade in 2020 that stands as the second-highest single-season mark in PFF history.
That 2020 campaign is the pinnacle of Rodgers’ career and one of the greatest quarterback seasons ever recorded. That season, he led the NFL with a 94.7 PFF passing grade and finished with 53 touchdowns to just six interceptions, posting a league-best 7.6% big-time throw rate and the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.1%), trailing only Tom Brady (1.9%) and Deshaun Watson (2.0%).
On 660 dropbacks, he racked up 49 big-time throws against just 15 turnover-worthy plays — a staggering ratio that underscored the degree of difficulty and efficiency that defined his MVP run.
Even in 2024, returning from a torn Achilles at age 40, Rodgers remained one of the league's safest decision-makers. He recorded only 12 turnover-worthy plays on 643 dropbacks, a 1.8% rate that ranked fifth among quarterbacks and marked the 15th time in 16 years as a starter that he’s finished a season under the 3.0% threshold.
A new era in Pittsburgh
Rodgers' efficiency came with a clear stylistic shift last year: His 7.3-yard average target depth tied for the shortest of his career, while his 2.65-second average time to throw was tied for his third-fastest. He threw past the sticks on just 38.2% of his attempts, the third-lowest rate of his career.
That calculated, lower-variance style is a sharp departure from what the Steelers had under center last season with Russell Wilson. And that might be exactly the point.
Wilson, who was allowed to walk in free agency this offseason, played a much riskier game in 2024. He posted an 8.4-yard average target depth and held onto the ball for 2.85 seconds on average, frequently hunting downfield shots. He threw deep (20-plus air yards) on 13.7% of his dropbacks, tied for the 10th-highest rate. Rodgers, by comparison, attempted a deep pass on just 10.8% of dropbacks, 26th among qualifiers, opting instead for a quicker, more efficient rhythm.
It’s a philosophical pivot for Pittsburgh, and perhaps a response to how their offense functioned last season.
From Week 7 onward — once Wilson took over as the starter — the Steelers‘ passing game was among the least efficient in the league when it wasn’t hitting deep shots. On pass plays that didn’t travel 20-plus yards downfield, Pittsburgh ranked just 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.180). But when deep passes were included, their efficiency jumped all the way to ninth (0.321).
In short, the passing game struggled to stay on schedule without chunk gains. In Rodgers, the Steelers may see a veteran capable of lifting the baseline efficiency of their offense, not just living off the occasional explosive play.
What the betting markets say
Before news of Rodgers’ signing, Pittsburgh’s win total was set at 8.5, with notable pressure on the under. With the future Hall of Famer now in the fold, that number will likely tick up by a win or more. But even with Rodgers under center, betting the over at a potential 10.5 might be a stretch.
The early schedule offers some cushion. PFF's forecast has the Steelers facing the second-easiest slate through September. But things tighten dramatically down the stretch, with Pittsburgh projected to face the hardest schedule in the league from Week 12 onward. That stretch includes matchups with Buffalo, Detroit and two showdowns against division rival Baltimore.
At 8.5, there's a plausible case for value on the over. But at 10.5, you're betting on near-elite quarterback play, and a steep climb through one of the NFL's toughest year-end gauntlets.
The Bottom Line
Rodgers will be the most capable leader this offense has had since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and he’s a safe bet to orchestrate a more structured, efficient attack. But expectations should be tempered. The days of superhuman playmaking — both inside and outside the pocket — may be behind him, especially behind an offensive line that featured just one player with a 70.0-plus PFF grade last season.
He raises the floor in Pittsburgh. He might not raise the ceiling.
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