Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 3: Sprinkle these 3 SGPs

Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) as Atlanta Falcons cornerback Kendall Sheffield (20) covers in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Parlay Justin Jefferson 2 TDs / 125+ yards, Kirk Cousins 300+ pass yards, Vikings -6 vs. Lions (+2012 FanDuel): Cousins cooks Detroit's man coverage.

Parlay Baker Mayfield 275+ pass yards, DJ Moore 90+ rec. yards / anytime TD (+2443 FanDuel): Mayfield excels from clean pockets.

• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins


· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Story: Baker mayfield excels without pressure. 

Mayfield sees pretty drastic splits depending on whether or not he sees pressure.

· The Saints are dead-last in the NFL with 12% pressure rate: Baker should have clean pockets to throw from all day. 

· DJ Moore's breakout nigh: He has been quiet so far in 2022, but Moore is a top-25 PFF-graded receiver each of the past three years. He is far too talented to be kept off the board for long. 

FanDuel SGP (+2443)

· Baker Mayfield 275+ Yards

· DJ Moore 90+ Yards

· DJ Moore TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Story: Kirk Cousins cooks man coverage

· Kirk Cousins has absolutely dominated against man coverage since 2019: The good news for him this week? The Lions have played the second-most man coverage of any team, with a 47% zone rate through two weeks. 

· Justin Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL vs. single coverage: Look for Kevin O'connell to scheme his best weapon on advantageous 1-on-1 matchups facing a man-heavy scheme. 

Build: FD +2012: 

· Justin Jefferson 2 TDs

· Kirk Cousins 300+ Yards

· Justin Jefferson 125+ Yards

· Minnesota Vikings -6

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

Story: Falcons quietly have led successful offense drives to start 2022. Look for them in a favorable matchup in Seattle to move the ball efficiently.

· Kyle Pitts seems like a good bet — and a buy-low candidate: Pitts is second on his team in target share, and tight ends are averaging 62 receiving yards against the Seahawks so far.  Pitts led the Falcons with 17 red-zone targets last season and is a good bet to see some red-zone looks in this one as the Falcons build on their impressive offensive drive profile. 

Fanduel SGP (+2211)

· Kyle Pitts TD

· Atlanta FalconsML 

· Marcus Mariota 250+ Yards

· Kyle Pitts 60+ Yards

 

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr