NFL Week 3: Sprinkle these 3 SGPs

Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) as Atlanta Falcons cornerback Kendall Sheffield (20) covers in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Parlay Justin Jefferson 2 TDs / 125+ yards, Kirk Cousins 300+ pass yards, Vikings -6 vs. Lions (+2012 FanDuel): Cousins cooks Detroit's man coverage.

Parlay Baker Mayfield 275+ pass yards, DJ Moore 90+ rec. yards / anytime TD (+2443 FanDuel): Mayfield excels from clean pockets.

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Estimated reading time: 2 mins

· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Story: Baker mayfield excels without pressure. 

Mayfield sees pretty drastic splits depending on whether or not he sees pressure.

· The Saints are dead-last in the NFL with 12% pressure rate: Baker should have clean pockets to throw from all day. 

· DJ Moore's breakout nigh: He has been quiet so far in 2022, but Moore is a top-25 PFF-graded receiver each of the past three years. He is far too talented to be kept off the board for long. 

FanDuel SGP (+2443)

· Baker Mayfield 275+ Yards

· DJ Moore 90+ Yards

· DJ Moore TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Story: Kirk Cousins cooks man coverage

· Kirk Cousins has absolutely dominated against man coverage since 2019: The good news for him this week? The Lions have played the second-most man coverage of any team, with a 47% zone rate through two weeks. 

· Justin Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL vs. single coverage: Look for Kevin O'connell to scheme his best weapon on advantageous 1-on-1 matchups facing a man-heavy scheme. 

Build: FD +2012: 

· Justin Jefferson 2 TDs

· Kirk Cousins 300+ Yards

· Justin Jefferson 125+ Yards

· Minnesota Vikings -6

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

Story: Falcons quietly have led successful offense drives to start 2022. Look for them in a favorable matchup in Seattle to move the ball efficiently.

· Kyle Pitts seems like a good bet — and a buy-low candidate: Pitts is second on his team in target share, and tight ends are averaging 62 receiving yards against the Seahawks so far.  Pitts led the Falcons with 17 red-zone targets last season and is a good bet to see some red-zone looks in this one as the Falcons build on their impressive offensive drive profile. 

Fanduel SGP (+2211)

· Kyle Pitts TD

· Atlanta FalconsML 

· Marcus Mariota 250+ Yards

· Kyle Pitts 60+ Yards


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