Fantasy: Waiver Wire Defenses Worth Week 15 Consideration

Team defense probably didn’t decide your postseason fate. Whether currently playing for the league title or taking frustration out in the consolation tournament, waiver wire scoops and matchups likely played just as large a role as the unit you selected in Round 14 of the draft.

But in the brutal, one-and-done reality of the fantasy football postseason, this area becomes magnified greatly, especially for those strolling into the postseason without a stud unit. Complacency with a team facing unfavorable circumstances can doom 14 weeks of painstaking attention to detail.

For those with a middling defense and hoping the waiver wire might yield a good plug-and-play, I will break down which bottom-dweller defenses could prove the difference between advancing and crashing.

First, the rules for usually unsavory, generally available defenses worth starting consideration at this stage in the year, in order:

1)    Matchup. Which defenses are catching nice quarterback matchups, or just plain bad offenses?

2)    Which defenses have been quietly performing better as of late?

We’ll consider the bottom 12 defenses in ESPN standard scoring in descending order: Rams, Chargers, Bills, Browns, Patriots, Giants, Vikings, Raiders, Saints, Panthers, Bucs and Colts.

Then, eliminate based on matchups we won’t touch. The ones who make the initial cut in bold.

Minnesota could be a great matchup if the Saints see the Ponder of last Sunday, who earned the second-lowest PFF rating for Week 14. He was thrice intercepted and sacked before Joe Webb subbed in early in the second half against Detroit.

Adrian Peterson is all but certain to make his return from a high ankle sprain, but with an injury like that it’s a bit tougher to predict whether he’ll be the same, or even stick around all game.

The emergence of Roy Helu might take some of the weight off Rex Grossman’s terrifying shoulders, but the quarterback has thrown 16 interceptions in 10 starts. So the Giants survive the process of elimination in the initial matchup glance. The allure of a potential Train Rex is too much.

New England ranks fifth in PFF’s run defense rating and I don’t believe Tim Tebow will make the Patriots pay through the air. New England possesses by far the best offense the Broncos have faced during their six-game winning streak, and could force Tebow to make more mistakes than usual while playing from much further behind.

Chances are New England won’t be sitting in the 10-17 point range in the final five minutes like practically everyone else Denver faces.

Also, the usually protective Tebow turned the ball over twice against Chicago. I wouldn’t sneer at starting the Patriots’ secondary-hampered defense this particular week, going against a PFF’s 25th-ranked pass attack in the Broncos.

So many scoop-and-start fantasy points this year have been predicated on: Who’s playing Curtis Painter? Who’s playing Blaine Gabbert? Who’s subbing in for the injured starter? Fantasy teams can get by scanning the waivers for matchups here and there.

Doing it in the playoffs takes guts, but it also takes focus on the opposing quarterback, his protection, and how the defense has been playing the recently.

Below are the teams who made Cut No. 1, now broken down by average points allowed for the past three weeks, total turnovers the past three weeks, their coming opponent’s Week 14 PFF pass block rating, and the opposing QB.

The Giants have allowed an absurd amount of points the past three weeks — though against offensive juggernauts New Orleans, Green Bay and Dallas. With Grossman behind center the Redskins offense has been functional enough to make this a stay-away.

New Orleans has only forced three turnovers over the past three weeks despite holding huge leads through most of their games against the Giants and Lions. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is lauded for his aggressive, turnover-creating style. But I’m just not buying into it this season, or as the stats show, this month.

New England’s points per game sit a little high, but they’re still forcing turnovers at a decent rate and could swat couple fumbles from Tebow after he fumbled twice and lost one last week.

The Broncos hot streak has completely overshadowed Arizona winning five of their last six, including a 21-19 win over the 49ers last week. The Cards have put down the clamps on Dallas and Philadelphia during this span.

However, they haven’t forced a turnover since Week 12. Whether that might change against backup Seneca Wallace, filling in for the injured Colt McCoy, could be worth a risk. There’s also the outside shot of another Patrick Peterson score on special teams, which would be his fifth.

So if you’re panning the waiver wire for some sort of gold, the Patriots or Cardinals might be worth a try. Ignore all else floating in deep leagues.