Fantasy: Projecting 2011 breakout running backs

How do you project a breakout running back?

Building on the fine work of Kevin Boyle and Sam Monson here at Pro Football Focus, and using three years of PFF data, I’ve come up with a formula. It’s not foolproof, but it is useful and predictive.

The formula is based on three factors: forced missed tackles per touch (explanation below), age and opportunity.

Simply, forced missed tackles are the number of tackles a player breaks or avoids.

Forced missed tackles are one of my favorite stats because they directly reflect a halfback’s talent. Offensive line play, fullback play, perimeter blocking and quarterback play do not cloud the picture.

In looking for breakout stars, we’ll target guys who got enough touches to prove themselves but not enough that they’re known quantities. Our parameters are fewer than 150 touches, but 10 or more forced missed tackles as a rusher. (We're not looking for third-down backs).

Then we’ll limit our candidates to players with three or fewer years of experience who are ticketed for bigger roles.

In the last three years, only 20 RBs have fit the statistical parameters:

If you'd used the formula in 2008, you’d have eliminated five guys for age or opportunity reasons. Pittman, for instance, only got touches because of Steven Jackson’s quad injury. He never had a shot at a bigger role. So the RBs left would have been Washington, Charles and Rice.

How did they do in 2009?

Washington was on pace for a terrific year until breaking his leg in a gruesome injury on Oct. 25. He already had rushed for 331 yards (4.6 per carry) and caught 15 balls for 131 yards. He was on pace for nearly 1,200 rushing-receiving yards.

Charles ran for 1,120 yards and seven touchdowns, and caught 40 balls for 297 yards and a score. Rice erupted for 2,041 yards from scrimmage, with eight touchdowns.

Suffice it to say, you’d have been happy if you followed the formula and elevated those three guys in your rankings. Rice finished No. 4 in the RB rankings, Charles No. 12.

Looking ahead to 2010, we'd have eliminated Lynch and Fargas for age or opportunity reasons.

How did the other four fare?

Brown battled a hamstring injury most of the 2010 season and finished with just 702 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

McFadden fulfilled his draft hype, finishing as the No. 6 RB with 1,664 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.

Jones put up a more-than-respectable 1,250 rushing-receiving yards, but only scored once. Bush also did not disappoint, delivering eight rushing touchdowns and 849 yards from scrimmage.

Three of four players outperformed their ADP, and McFadden absolutely shattered his.

What does the formula tell us for 2011?

Throwing out Addai, McGahee and Barber for age or opportunity reasons, we’re left with Goodson, Woodhead and Spiller as our breakout RBs for 2011. (I made an exception and included Spiller even though he created nine missed tackles as a rusher, one below our standard).

Goodson should be your top target. He was the fifth-most elusive RB in the league last season, according to Monson's elusive ratings. With DeAngelo Williams not expected to re-sign in Carolina, Goodson should get a pretty even split with Jonathan Stewart.

There will be plenty of carries to go around. The Panthers aren’t going to be throwing it all over the place, regardless of whether Jimmy Clausen, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert  or someone else plays quarterback.

New coach Ron Rivera has a defensive background. History has shown former defensive coordinators-turned-head coaches emphasize the run, especially early in their tenures.

I'll be drafting Goodson early and often, and you should too.