Fantasy: NFL Draft Reaction – Round 1 Dynasty Roundtable

Round 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. Now we are left to make sense of all the dynasty fantasy football implications of the draft picks last evening. For this roundtable edition, I brought in Chad Parsons to help me breakdown what you need to know.

Here are the questions:

Which Round 1 rookie has the best fit with his new team?

Chad Parsons: I will go with Robert Griffin III to Washington. We knew the pick long before the draft, but Shanahan has a great system for a mobile quarterback. Griffin can get the edge and deliver passes to a better set of weapons than Andrew Luck out of the gate. I like Andrew Luck more long-term, but Griffin has QB1 upside as a rookie.

Bryan Fontaine: I agree Griffin III will do wonders with Shanahan, but I love the fit of running back Doug Martin with Tampa Bay. New head coach Greg Schiano favors the power run game and coached Ray Rice in college – a player that Martin compares favorably to entering the league. Obviously, Martin will share time with LeGarrette Blount initially, but you have to figure Martin will be a three-down player sooner than later and will excel at gaining rushing yards after contact. In a short one to two year window, I may favor Martin over Richardson in PPR leagues – but long-term Martin is the clear No. 2 running back in this class.

Which Round 1 rookie has the worst fit with his new team?

Parsons: A.J. Jenkins is in a tough spot in San Francisco. The 49ers brought in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham already in the offseason, in addition to Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree in the passing game. The 49ers are a low-volume passing team to begin with. Alex Smith is limited and Colin Kaepernick is raw. I loved Jenkins as a late 2nd or 3rd round pick drafted into a good situation. Now, I think he will be over drafted in rookie leagues compared to his production at least in the first two to three years of his career.

Fontaine: After having the evening to think it through, I cannot argue with many of the first round selections. Initially, I did not like the fit of Kendall Wright with Tennessee, but I think he can be a fine No. 2 wide receiver to emerging No. 1 Kenny Britt. If I had to pick one player though, I will agree with you on A.J. Jenkins for the same reasons you already stated. I will add that it appears the 49ers view Jenkins as a slot receiver, something that was lacking on their current depth chart. I think Jenkins can eventually surpass Mario Manningham on the depth chart, but for now his fantasy upside is limited.

Which veteran player was affected the most in Round 1?

Parsons: I have two players for you: Montario Hardesty and LeGarrette Blount. Hardesty was in line for a good amount of touches without a top running back in the mix in Cleveland. While many had written him off, Hardesty was finally getting healthy after a major knee injury as a rookie. With Richardson in town, Hardesty is limited to an end-of-the-bench handcuff play in dynasty at this point. Doug Martin is a complete three-down running back that will steal significant work from Blount from day one. Blount is already limited in PPR formats. I would be surprised if Blount sees 200+ rushing attempts in 2012.

Fontaine: Way to steal two excellent candidates Chad. I agree with both players. I have two players as well – though both were not ticketed for huge fantasy seasons this year. The Michael Floyd selection in Arizona really puts a damper on the sleeper potential of Andre Roberts. Floyd will line up out wide with Larry Fitzgerald, and going by snap data from last year, Roberts was only in the slot 19% of the time. Early Doucet played the slot 78% of the time last year, so there will be a camp battle for that spot. It is hard to imagine the Cardinals offense supporting three fantasy relevant receivers, so it is probably better to look elsewhere. There is a similar situation in Tennessee with Kendall Wright coming to town. Nate Washington is probably most at risk to lose snaps in the slot to Wright. Damian Williams should be safe for now on the outside with Kenny Britt.

For those with early rookie drafts starting this weekend, please rank the rookies selected in the First Round.

(Rankings sorted by consensus)

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