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The Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 14 waiver, trade and drop candidates

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
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WEEK 13 TAKEAWAYS

Waiver Wire

RB – Rhamondre Stevenson is surprisingly available on 40-60% of waiver wires and could be in line for an expanded workload after the Week 14 bye if Damien Harris (hamstring) isn't ready. Even if Harris is ready, Stevenson has carved out a third of the backfield and is looking more potent as the season goes on. FAB: 95%+

RB – JaMycal Hasty could find himself thrust into a lead role in an elite rushing offense in Week 14 if Elijah Mitchell (concussion) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee) can't play. We likely won't have enough information before waivers run, but this FAB number may need to go up or down. FAB: 10-20%

WR – Russell Gage has three consecutive top-36 finishes and sees elite TPRR versus man (27%) and zone (26%) coverages. In addition, his 59% open rate against single-man leads the NFL for receivers with at least 200 routes. FAB: 50%+

WR – Julio Jones is eligible to return to action in Week 14 and could be the centerpiece of the Titans' passing attack until A.J. Brown returns. The veteran has underwhelmed in box scores so far this season, but his YPRR is over two (2.18), and his TPRR of 20% is still solid for where he is in the career arch. FAB: 50%+

WR – DeVante Parker could carve out a solid role with the pass-happy Dolphins down the stretch. He has a bye in Week 14 but is a high-end WR4 starting Week 15. FAB: 10-20%

TE – Tyler Conklin posted a top-six tight end finish thanks to an expanded role with Adam Thielen (high-ankle) leaving the game. As long as Thielen is out, expect Conklin to continue to see a bump in value. FAB: 5-10%

Sell High

TE – Zach Ertz faces multiple challenges to remaining relevant as the Cardinals receivers regain health. Ertz, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore are all battling for slot opportunities, and Arizona is a run-heavy offense to this point. He is a high-end TE2 moving forward.

Buy Low

RB – Najee Harris makes this list for a second consecutive week after his third finish outside the top 12 in four weeks. His underlying utilization remains astronomically good despite some efficiency challenges. He is Leonard Fournette on a lesser offense and is a mid-range RB1.

Upgrades

RB – Leonard Fournette has taken over the passing downs from Giovani Bernard and is dominating the backfield for arguably the best offense in football. He is a top-five option the rest of the way.

RB – Josh Jacobs played a season-high 93% of snaps, including passing-down work, with Kenyan Drake knocked from the game. Drake is out for the season, and Jacobs, who has recently been more active in the passing game, will push for an every-down role. Jalen Richard will likely steal a few looks, but Jacobs is a high-end RB2 heading into the stretch run.

WR – Diontae Johnson‘s underlying utilization has been spectacular all season, and now his box scores are catching up. Roethlisberger's favorite receiver against every coverage type has eclipsed the 30% target share threshold in seven of 11 contests. As a result, Johnson is a low-end WR1 for the fantasy playoffs.

See the team summaries below for more upgrade news on Tee Higgins, David Montgomery, Javonte Williams, Antonio Gibson and more.

Downgrades

RB – Ezekiel Elliott is in a 60/40 time split, with Tony Pollard seeing action across all situations. A knee issue could be at the root of the decrease in playing time, but until we see a reverse in this trend, Elliott drops to RB2 status.

RB – Saquon Barkley sees top-notch utilization, but the Giants are just that bad on offense. He drops into the high-end RB2 status but could jump back into the RB1 conversation if New York can get the offense at least into neutral instead of reverse.

WR – Rashod Bateman has lost playing time to Sammy Watkins, and his lack of routes renders him a WR5 stash play. Keep him away from lineups in Week 14.

See more waiver recommendations below under each team.

FANTRAX IS THE OFFICIAL FANTASY FOOTBALL SPONSOR OF PFF! Create a free Fantrax account for a chance to win an autographed jersey at Fantrax.com/PFFData notes and acronyms:

  • 1st/2nd = First and second downs
  • LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
  • SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
  • i5 = inside the five-yard line
    2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)
  • Close = score within three points
  • Lead = leading by four points or more
  • Trail = trailing by four points or more
  • Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
  • Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
  • ADOT = average depth of target
  • Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
  • TTT = average time to throw
  • PA = play action
  • PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
  • Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
  • YPRR = yards per route run
  • TPRR = targets per route run
  • EZ = end zone
  • TOP = Time of possession
  • Pass vs. Run Splits = based on the percentage of time a team throws or passes
JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Team Ranks
Pace & TOP Pass vs Run Splits Pass by Game Script Run by Game Script
Plays per Game Plays per Minute Time of Possession Pass Rank Run Rank Trail Pass Close Pass Lead Pass Trail Run Close Run Lead Run
15 24 7 30 3 27 14 18 6 19 15

Pass-volume environment: Poor
Run-volume environment: Good
Pass/run tendencies: Run-balanced (previously balanced)

The Cardinals are first in the league in plays leading by four or more points (57%) and trail the second-least (18%). They were never in a trailing script against the Bears last Sunday, marking the seventh time Arizona has accomplished that feat in 2021.

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