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The Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 10 waiver, trade and drop candidates

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
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WEEK 9 TAKEAWAYS

Waiver Wire

QB – Justin Fields‘ rostership is at 26% of Yahoo and 19% of ESPN leagues. The Bears have a bye in Week 10, but the rookie quarterback has two top-10 finishes in the last two games. He has 466 yards and two touchdowns through the air and 110 yards and a score on the ground. FAB: 25%-50%

RB – Rhamondre Stevenson is available in 90% of leagues and appears to be the primary handcuff to Damien Harris. Stevenson and Harris both suffered head injuries in Week 9. FAB: 5-10%

RB – Jordan Howard has taken over the short-down-and-distance role for the Eagles, which could continue even after Miles Sanders returns. The Eagles are running more lately, but this is still a three-back committee with a running quarterback, so temper expectations. FAB: 5-10%

RB – Sony Michel is the primary backup to Darrell Henderson in an elite offense and is a must-roster RB5-stash in most formats. He took over the two-minute offense and some of the long-down-distance work this week. He carries more upside than Stevenson or Howard. FAB: 2-5%

WR – Brandon Aiyuk topped 90% route participation for the second consecutive week and accounted for 22% of targets. He is a WR3 the rest of the way and is still available in 40-55% of leagues. FAB: 50%+

WR – Elijah Moore is garnering team-leading targets-per-route over the past three games and could push for more time down the stretch. He is rostered in less than 70% of leagues and has three top-36 finishes in the last three games. FAB: 15-25%

WR – Donovan Peoples-Jones has three consecutive top-36 finishes when healthy and is the best option to replace Odell Beckham Jr. as the vertical option. His routes should continue to grow. FAB: 10-20%

WR – Michael Gallup is expected to play in Week 10, but Dalton Schultz has carved out a role that could create a new obstacle for targets. FAB: 10-20%

Sell High

RB – Joe Mixon has three top-five finishes in his last four games and ranks as the RB4, but his underlying utilization and efficiency indicate he is most likely a touchdown-dependent high-end RB2.

Buy Low

WR – Mike Williams is on the field plenty in a pass-heavy offense with an ascending quarterback. The Chargers offense can support multiple high-end fantasy weapons. He is more valuable than his WR73, 79 and 46 finishes over the last three games.

Upgrades

RB – James Conner took over an every-down role with Chase Edmonds leaving the game after one snap. With Edmonds heading to short-term IR, Conner is a low-end RB1 for the fantasy stretch run.

WR – A.J. Brown is dominating utilization in the Titans passing attack that may not run quite as much with Derrick Henry out. Brown has the No. 1 overall WR1 upside every week.

WR – Marquise Brown continues to lead the Ravens' passing attack despite the arrival of Rashod Bateman. The third-year receiver is a WR1 the rest of the way.

Downgrades

WR – D.J. Moore‘s underlying utilization is top-notch, but Sam Darnold hasn't topped 175 yards passing in the last three games.

Data notes and acronyms:

1st/2nd = First and second downs
LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
i5 = inside the five-yard line
2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)
Close = score within three points
Lead = leading by four points or more
Trail = trailing by four points or more
Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
ADOT = average depth of target
Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
TTT = average time to throw
PA = play action
PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
YPRR = yards per route run
TPRR = targets per route run
EZ = end zone
TOP = Time of possession

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JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Team Ranks
Pace & TOP Pass vs Run Splits Pass by Game Script Run by Game Script
Plays per Game Plays per Minute Time of Possession Pass Rank Run Rank Trail Pass Close Pass Lead Pass Trail Run Close Run Lead Run
13 25 5 30 3 26 15 19 7 18 14

Pass-volume environment: Poor
Run-volume environment: Good
Pass/run tendencies: Balanced

The Cardinals led San Francisco by four or more points on 80% of snaps and ran the ball on 54% of plays in Week 9. They have played with a leading script a league-leading 57% of plays for the season.

Quarterbacks
Player Week ADOT Adjusted Comp % TTT YPA Play Action Designed Rush Att Scrambles Sacks i5 Att PPR Rank
Kyler Murray 7 9.3 85% 3.02 9.3 49% 11% 6% 14% 0% 9
8 9.5 73% 2.58 8.0 25% 26% 3% 8% 0% 25
9
YTD 8.8 79% 2.81 8.6 36% 13% 5% 7% 21% 7
Colt McCoy 7
8
9 3.4 92% 2.37 9.4 42% 16% 3% 10% 0% 13
YTD 3.4 92% 2.37 9.4 42% 5% 3% 10% 0% 43

Rest of season:

  • Murray: top-five QB
Running backs
Player Week Snaps Rush Att Routes Targets TPRR SDD Snaps i5 Att LDD Snaps 2MIN Snaps PPR Rank
James Conner 7 30% 28% 17% 0% 0% 40% 0% 25% 0% 23
8 37% 26% 30% 0% 0% 33% 100% 11% 0% 20
9 77% 55% 72% 19% 24% 75% 100% 90% 1
YTD 46% 42% 30% 4% 10% 66% 57% 23% 17% 11
Chase Edmonds 7 69% 42% 77% 8% 8% 60% 100% 63% 88% 27
8 59% 37% 58% 13% 19% 67% 0% 89% 100% 19
9 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 67
YTD 53% 28% 56% 14% 20% 31% 14% 73% 83% 21
Eno Benjamin 7 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 68
8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0
9 24% 24% 19% 0% 0% 25% 0% 10% 32
YTD 3% 4% 2% 0% 0% 6% 0% 1% 0% 95

Edmonds left the game after one play with what is believed to be a high-ankle sprain which could force him to short-term IR.

Upgrade: Conner handled a near every-down role with Edmonds knocked out of the contest and finished as the No. 1 RB on the week. He ran a route on 72% of dropbacks and managed the SDD and LDD work. He is a must-start RB1 if Edmonds misses time.

Upgrade: Benjamin spelled Conner but doesn't have a specific role (so far) and is a low-end cuff if Edmonds misses time.

Rest of season:

  • Edmonds: low-end RB2 upon return
  • Conner: low-end RB1 while Edmonds is out, touchdown-dependent low-end RB2 after
  • Benjamin: stash RB5 while Edmonds is out
Receivers and tight ends
Player Pos Week Routes TPRR Targets ADOT Air Yards EZ Tgts 3rd/4th Down Targets PA Targets PPR Rank
DeAndre Hopkins WR 7 97% 27% 35% 9.2 34% 67% 33% 67% 11
8 25% 22% 6% 21.0 16% 0% 14% 0% 52
9 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0
YTD 80% 18% 18% 13.0 28% 40% 21% 37% 19
A.J. Green WR 7 86% 10% 12% 21.0 26% 0% 17% 67% 37
8 95% 23% 26% 11.6 34% 100% 14% 13% 39
9 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0
YTD 81% 17% 16% 12.7 26% 25% 14% 37% 37
Christian Kirk WR 7 74% 20% 19% 13.0 27% 33% 17% 60% 19
8 78% 21% 19% 12.7 28% 0% 0% 17% 51
9 97% 21% 23% 9.0 45% 0% 33% 15
YTD 76% 20% 18% 12.8 29% 25% 14% 31% 24
Rondale Moore WR 7 49% 19% 12% -0.7 -1% 0% 17% 0% 68
8 70% 15% 13% -2.5 -4% 0% 14% 25% 67
9 88% 19% 19% -1.0 -4% 33% 40% 45
YTD 54% 23% 15% 1.2 2% 5% 16% 30% 45
Antoine Wesley WR 7 3% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 104
8 53% 16% 10% 15.3 17% 0% 14% 67% 101
9 75% 13% 12% 15.3 38% 0% 100% 34
YTD 15% 13% 2% 15.3 4% 0% 1% 83% 151
Zach Ertz TE 7 54% 21% 15% 10.3 17% 0% 17% 50% 6
8 70% 16% 13% 4.3 6% 0% 14% 50% 14
9 84% 19% 19% 0.8 3% 33% 40% 27
YTD 22% 20% 5% 4.8 3% 0% 17% 46% 14

With Hopkins and Green out, Kirk saw a season-high 97% routes-per-pass play while his TPRR held steady (21%), resulting in a 23% target share. Moore also saw a season-high in route participation at 88%, but he remained limited to targets close to the line of scrimmage (-1.0 ADOT).

Monitoring: Ertz eclipsed the 80% route barrier, but it could just be the result of missing Hopkins and Green.

Rest of season:

  • Hopkins: low-end WR1
  • Kirk: boom-bust WR3
  • Green: low-end WR3
  • Moore: stash WR5
  • Ertz: high-end TE2

ATLANTA FALCONS

Team Ranks
Pace & TOP Pass vs Run Splits Pass by Game Script Run by Game Script
Plays per Game Plays per Minute Time of Possession Pass Rank Run Rank Trail Pass Close Pass Lead Pass Trail Run Close Run Lead Run
18 12 20 10 23 10 19 4 23 14 29

Pass-volume environment: Good
Run-volume environment: Average
Pass/run tendencies: Pass-balanced

Quarterbacks
Player Week ADOT Adjusted Comp % TTT YPA Play Action Designed Rush Att Scrambles Sacks i5 Att PPR Rank
Matt Ryan 7 9.5 73% 2.73 8.4 26% 10% 2% 2% 0% 13
8 7.7 72% 2.42 4.9 26% 5% 3% 9% 0% 31
9 9.6 80% 3.04 10.7 30% 9% 8% 5% 0% 3
YTD 7.9 75% 2.63 6.9 29% 5% 2% 4% 0% 18

The Falcons got back to the vertical passing attack in Week 9 despite the absence of Calvin Ridley.

Rest of season: mid-range QB2 with spike potential

Running backs
Player Week Snaps Rush Att Routes Targets TPRR SDD Snaps i5 Att LDD Snaps 2MIN Snaps PPR Rank
Cordarrelle Patterson 7 73% 67% 67% 11% 14% 100% 100% 58% 46% 20
8 60% 47% 47% 19% 33% 75% 0% 63% 0% 11
9 56% 41% 54% 21% 30% 33% 100% 50% 80% 7
YTD 48% 39% 42% 15% 31% 52% 43% 42% 31% 6
Mike Davis 7 60% 19% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0% 83% 69% 65
8 64% 47% 44% 19% 36% 75% 0% 75% 100% 26
9 56% 41% 35% 4% 9% 67% 0% 58% 20% 57
YTD 64% 45% 54% 10% 16% 59% 29% 72% 74% 34

Trend: Patterson is the RB8 on the season. He continues to split work with Davis and tack on additional looks at receiver. Over the past three games, 41% of his snaps have come outside or in the slot: He is a near every-down player at this point.

Rest of season:

  • Patterson: low-end RB1 while Ridley is out
  • Davis: low-end RB3
Receivers and tight ends
Player Pos Week Routes TPRR Targets ADOT Air Yards EZ Tgts 3rd/4th Down Targets PA Targets PPR Rank
Russell Gage WR 7 60% 24% 16% 12.8 22% 0% 22% 17% 15
8 68% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 121
9 84% 27% 29% 8.5 24% 0% 36% 13% 19
YTD 41% 17% 8% 7.7 8% 6% 10% 13% 89
Tajae Sharpe WR 7 24% 20% 5% 4.0 2% 0% 0% 0% 66
8 68% 29% 23% 13.8 43% 0% 25% 0% 37
9 84% 3% 4% 8.0 3% 0% 0% 100% 78
YTD 42% 14% 7% 9.2 8% 0% 7% 11% 102
Olamide Zaccheaus WR 7 7% 33% 3% 10.0 3% 0% 0% 100% 78
8 38% 8% 4% 12.0 6% 0% 0% 100% 97
9 57% 16% 11% 17.3 18% 67% 0% 100% 4
YTD 54% 12% 7% 11.5 11% 25% 7% 48% 76
Kyle Pitts TE 7 79% 27% 24% 18.6 47% 0% 33% 33% 2
8 97% 20% 23% 14.2 44% 0% 50% 17% 35
9 76% 22% 21% 14.2 30% 33% 18% 17% 16
YTD 81% 21% 19% 11.9 30% 25% 22% 27% 7
Hayden Hurst TE 7 60% 16% 11% 7.5 9% 0% 0% 25% 22
8 59% 15% 12% 4.3 7% 0% 0% 67% 40
9 38% 23% 11% 3.3 3% 0% 27% 0% 34
YTD 50% 16% 9% 7.5 9% 6% 10% 35% 28

Ridley missed Week 9 and will miss at least the next two games as he takes care of his mental health.

Waiver/Upgrade: Gage ran a season-high 84% of routes and posted his second top-24 finish in three games. Gage is available in 85% of leagues. FAB: 2-5%

Waiver/Upgrade: Sharpe also saw a season-high in routes at 84% but hasn't done as much with the work. FAB: 1% in deep formats only

Buy-low: If the Pitts manager in your league is sweating the last two sub-par finishes, make an offer. The rookie's utilization remains elite on the routes and TPRR fronts.

Rest of season:
  • Ridley: Top-12 WR upon return
  • Pitts: Top-three TE
  • Gage: low-end WR4
  • Sharpe: low-end WR5

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