Football Stock Market is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines players you should buy or sell in your fantasy league.
Buy
WR Randy Moss – Titans
Week 10: 1 Rec (4 Tgts), 24 Yards
Throughout his career, Moss has performed well in debuting with a new team. Not so this past weekend against the Dolphins, albeit being 33 and on your third team in a single season are good reasons to have expected his fantasy dud. Although he was on the field for a team-high 64 snaps amongst WRs, Moss was targeted just four times, with Nate Washington getting a lot of action. This will change as Moss' season goes on. Considering Moss was one of the top WRs taken in drafts this year, his season has been a bust for fantasy owners. Think about trading for him now before he ramps it up with the Titans. His name elicits a higher perceived value, but you can definitely talk his price down with his performance this season.
WR Michael Jenkins – Atlanta
Week 10: 5 Rec (8 Tgts), 48 Yards
Michael Jenkins quietly equaled Tony Gonzalez in the number of passing routes he ran (48) against the Ravens. He has seen his snap count increase each game since he returned, and he is ready to make a fantasy impact for the rest of the season. Roddy White has gotten a ridiculous number of targets on the season thus far, and teams should be lining up to stop White. With the attention being paid White and Gonzalez, Jenkins could see a lot of throws come in his direction. He may even be a waiver wire pickup in your league, but he is a cheap buy right now.
RB Shonn Greene – New York Jets
Week 10: 20 Att, 72 Yards; 3 Rec (3 Tgts), 22 Yards
Slowly, but surely, the Jets are giving Greene more opportunities each week. It is a great sign for Greene that he had more carries than LaDainian Tomlinson. LaDainian the Grey has started to slow down, posting a pedestrian 3.4 YPC over his last four games, while Greene has averaged 4.1 YPC in that same span. The public pronouncement that he and LaDainian Tomlinson would be splitting carries evenly had already given his stock a boost, but you can still buy low if you get in soon. Greene’s owners started to lose patience with him several weeks ago, but it is unlikely his value will be any lower moving forward.
RB Ryan Mathews – San Diego
Week 10: DNP
This buy must be very low, as Mathews’ real value is tied to his potential. The Chargers have been playing well offensively without him involved much all season, and he is coming off his second injury of the season. I have already had him as a buy-low candidate this season, but his injuries have pushed his value down to recession levels. With Philip Rivers slinging the ball like Dan Marino, the Mathews should find a lot of running room. If he can stay healthy and Norv Turner tries to balance the offense, Mathews could be in for a Jamaal Charles-like second-half explosion. His owner might want to hang onto him because s/he has been patient with Mathews, but if you can offer something they need that is of little value to you, it is worth trying to snag him.
WR Reggie Wayne – Colts
Week 10: 3 Rec (6 Tgts), 34 Yards
The Indianapolis M.A.S.H Unit is only rivaled by San Diego’s injury-depleted receiving corps, and it seems to have affected Wayne’s production. He has found the end zone just once in the past 6 games, despite some good reception and yardage numbers. With Peyton Manning passing the ball, it is just a matter of time before Wayne breaks out with several big fantasy performances. With Jacob Tamme doing his best Dallas Clark impersonation, and Austin Collie’s return from injury, Wayne will see less coverage and a lot of passes thrown his direction. His name inflates his value, but his value will likely not be lower than this week.
Hold
WR Michael Crabtree – 49ers
Week 10: 4 Rec (5 Tgts), 61 Yards, 1 TD
Maybe the 49ers helped themselves to a little mojo from their Bay Area counterpart Giants, but they are slowly improving, Crabtree included. Crab has found the end zone 4 times over the past 5 games, and seems to be on an upward trajectory for the rest of the season. To add to this, Mike Singletary named Troy Smith the starter for the rest of the season, and he is averaging 19 yards per completion. San Francisco still has games against Arizona (twice), Seattle, and St. Louis as well. I have personally tried to trade Crabtree away over the past few weeks and have been met with a lot of disgusted responses, so it seems his value is still quite low despite his improvement.
QB Matt Cassel – Chiefs
Week 10: 33/53, 469 Yards, 4 TDs
Cassel’s massive fantasy day was eclipsed by just one other player: Michael Vick. Cassel wound up scoring 45 standard fantasy points largely in part to Kansas City’s Washington-sized deficit (a double-pun for you this week), which could lead you to believe that you should sell high. I was tempted to put him in my sell section, but his upcoming schedule is quite nice; the Chiefs face Arizona, Seattle, Denver again, San Diego, and St. Louis. Cassel has built a good rapport with receiver Dwayne Bowe, and KC's good running game will keep defenses honest against the pass.
RB Justin Forsett – Seahawks
Week 10: 9 Att, 64 Yards, 1 TD; 3 Rec (4 Tgts), 31 Yards
Just when we thought Forsett’s fantasy season was over, he posted a good score of 15 points in standard leagues. His value is actually better in PPR leagues because he is on the field in a lot of passing situations, but Forsett is clearly (still) the best back in Seattle, averaging 4.7 YPC to Marshawn Lynch’s 3.4. The downside to Forsett is that Pete Carroll suffers from Todd Haley syndrome and gives Lynch the bulk of the carries. Still, he is worth keeping on your bench, and definitely worth stashing in dynasty leagues.
QB Colt McCoy – Browns
Week 10: 18/31, 205 Yards, 1 TD
Speaking of dynasty leagues, Colt McCoy could be a fantasy star in future seasons. McCoy was a Chansi Stuckey fumble away from leading the Browns to their third victory over a quality opponent in a row, and he has shown himself to be the Browns’ quarterback of the future. Colt actually has some favorable fantasy matchups coming up against Jacksonville, Carolina, Miami, and Buffalo as well, so if you are in a deeper league or desperate for a starter, he could be your man.
Sell
QB Michael Vick – Eagles
Week 10: 13,781 Total Yards, a dozen TDs
Wait! Keep reading! I am a Vick owner in a few leagues, so I am well aware of his impact on a fantasy team. His performance this past Monday was historic and provided some fantasy miracles. Despite playing just four full games, Vick is 5th in the league with a 32.0 PFF rating – at this rate he is going to blow the league away if he stays healthy. As such, Vick’s value is insane right now. I imagine there is some frenzy in a lot of leagues regarding Vick, and you could get a seriously good return for him. If you are so inclined, especially if you have needs elsewhere, you should sell now before his stock sinks back to normally high levels. I believe he is going to score a lot of points from here on out, but if you can score a couple of studs in return, it is well worth the sale.
RB Keiland Williams – Redskins
Week 10: 16 Att, 89 Yards, 2 TDs; 4 Rec (7 Tgts), 50 Yards, 1 TD
Mike Clay talks about Williams in his Waiver Wire article this weeks, but I am not buying. Williams racked up a ton of points with Ryan Torain and Clinton Portis out for the Redskins, much of it during garbage time, which began sometime in the first quarter. Williams has some PPR value because he will catch some passes out of the backfield, but even in his good fantasy performance, Williams notched a forgettable -1.6 PFF rating. With Portis and Torain slated to come back, Williams figures to be reduced to a third-down back, at best. He may have earned himself a little more playing time with that performance, but he was only on the field for 22% of all offensive snaps before Portis went down with an injury. If you happen to own him, try to sell him to a Torain or Portis owner as an insurance policy.
WR Terrell Owens – Bengals
Week 10: 4 Rec (8 Tgts), 64 Yards
In my humble opinion, Owens has hit his peak value for the season. He already fell off a bit, being shut out of the end zone against Indianapolis. Some folks have been on the Owens bandwagon all season, and Owens has rewarded them thus far. With Palmer ailing and Chad Ochocinco regaining his targets, Owens is due for a dropoff, big or small. Though I think he will still have some good fantasy weeks, now is the time to get bang for your buck.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_Zerodev
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