Over the past couple weeks, I used statistically comparable historical players to project NFL value, as measured by our proprietary wins above replacement metric (WAR), for early– and mid-round wide receivers and running backs. In this article, I’m going to apply that matching analysis with the projections focused on fantasy value.
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The matching methodology is largely similar to the prior articles, but now we have the actual NFL draft positions for all prospects, and I’m expanding the comparable players listed below to 10 from five. Above the individual player comps, I’ve included a plot with the running backs and the average number of top-6, top-12 and top-24 fantasy weeks (PPR) for the player’s comps over the first two seasons of their careers. These projections give us a broad perspective on fantasy production for each player, along with the ability to compare across the 2020 class. You can marry these projections with the opportunity scores for first-round and Day 2 running backs to determine a good estimate for career production.
METHODOLOGY
The comps below were derived from a two-step process. First, I used player age (as of Sept. 1, 2020) and draft position as filters, then used the rest of the matching features in principle component analysis (PCA). I found the closest statistically comparable players by euclidean distance between the players' principle components and then gave each a “Similarity” score based on percentile of distance.
The filters for age and draft position are plus/minus 1.5 years and one round, respectively. The metrics for PCA are: weight, 40-yard dash, rushing attempts per game, rushing yards per game, receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and market share of team rushing yards. The comparable player tables for each prospect also include the number of top-12 fantasy weeks for each over the first two years of his career.
For missing Combine 40-yard dash times, I filled the values with Pro Day times plus a 0.1-second penalty, or estimated using weight and other measurables. The final values for projected top fantasy weeks are weighted by the similarity between the comparable player and prospect.
Top-Drafted Running Backs
The first running back chosen in the NFL draft, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, is also the best projected back according to comparable players. Edwards-Helaire brings strong rushing and receiving production, plus a first-round draft pedigree. Jonathan Taylor’s comps were probably the most disappointing, especially considering that he was a favorite among fantasy drafters going into the NFL draft. Taylor's lack of receiving production in college makes him most comparable to one-dimensional running backs who didn’t provide a ton of early-career value.
PICK 32: CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | LSU | 32 | 21.4 | 207 | 4.60 | 14.3 | 94.6 | 3.7 | 30.2 | 62.0% | N/A |
| 98% | 2007 | Marshawn Lynch | California | 12 | 21.4 | 215 | 4.52 | 17.2 | 104.3 | 2.6 | 25.2 | 63.9% | 10 |
| 96% | 2009 | Knowshon Moreno | Georgia | 12 | 22.1 | 217 | 4.62 | 19.2 | 107.7 | 2.5 | 30.2 | 71.8% | 9 |
| 94% | 2012 | Isaiah Pead | Cincinnati | 50 | 22.7 | 197 | 4.47 | 18.2 | 96.9 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 53.8% | 0 |
| 92% | 2007 | Brandon Jackson | Nebraska | 63 | 21.9 | 210 | 4.55 | 13.4 | 70.6 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 41.7% | 0 |
| 90% | 2017 | Joe Mixon | Oklahoma | 48 | 21.1 | 228 | 4.55 | 15.3 | 105.1 | 3.0 | 44.3 | 43.1% | 8 |
| 88% | 2006 | Reggie Bush | USC | 2 | 21.5 | 201 | 4.47 | 15.4 | 133.9 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 51.3% | 14 |
| 86% | 2009 | LeSean McCoy | Pittsburgh | 53 | 21.1 | 204 | 4.60 | 23.7 | 114.5 | 2.5 | 23.5 | 80.6% | 9 |
| 84% | 2017 | Dalvin Cook | Florida St | 41 | 22.1 | 210 | 4.49 | 22.2 | 135.6 | 2.5 | 36.8 | 63.4% | 5 |
| 82% | 2013 | Giovani Bernard | North Carolina | 37 | 21.8 | 202 | 4.53 | 18.4 | 122.8 | 4.7 | 49.0 | 62.5% | 11 |
| 80% | 2011 | Shane Vereen | California | 56 | 22.6 | 210 | 4.55 | 19.3 | 97.3 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 58.7% | 1 |
PICK 35: D’ANDRE SWIFT, DETROIT LIONS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | D'Andre Swift | Georgia | 35 | 21.6 | 212 | 4.48 | 14.1 | 87.1 | 1.7 | 15.4 | 46.4% | N/A |
| 98% | 2011 | Shane Vereen | California | 56 | 22.6 | 210 | 4.55 | 19.3 | 97.3 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 58.7% | 1 |
| 96% | 2007 | Brandon Jackson | Nebraska | 63 | 21.9 | 210 | 4.55 | 13.4 | 70.6 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 41.7% | 0 |
| 94% | 2008 | Felix Jones | Arkansas | 22 | 21.3 | 207 | 4.47 | 10.2 | 89.4 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 30.8% | 1 |
| 92% | 2018 | Derrius Guice | LSU | 59 | 21.2 | 224 | 4.49 | 19.8 | 104.6 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 48.6% | 1 |
| 90% | 2010 | Ben Tate | Auburn | 58 | 22.0 | 220 | 4.43 | 20.2 | 104.8 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 51.5% | 1 |
| 88% | 2007 | Marshawn Lynch | California | 12 | 21.4 | 215 | 4.52 | 17.2 | 104.3 | 2.6 | 25.2 | 63.9% | 10 |
| 86% | 2012 | David Wilson | Virginia Tech | 32 | 21.2 | 206 | 4.49 | 20.7 | 122.1 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 64.9% | 1 |
| 84% | 2015 | Ameer Abdullah | Nebraska | 54 | 22.2 | 205 | 4.60 | 20.3 | 123.9 | 1.7 | 20.7 | 51.2% | 1 |
| 82% | 2010 | Jahvid Best | California | 30 | 21.6 | 199 | 4.35 | 15.7 | 96.3 | 2.4 | 23.7 | 51.5% | 5 |
| 78% | 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott | Ohio St | 4 | 21.1 | 225 | 4.47 | 22.2 | 140.1 | 2.1 | 15.9 | 56.2% | 17 |
PICK 41: JONATHAN TAYLOR, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | Jonathan Taylor | Wisconsin | 41 | 21.6 | 226 | 4.39 | 22.9 | 143.0 | 1.9 | 17.4 | 61.1% | N/A |
| 98% | 2008 | Jonathan Stewart | Oregon | 13 | 21.4 | 235 | 4.48 | 21.5 | 132.5 | 1.7 | 11.2 | 51.6% | 8 |
| 96% | 2018 | Rashaad Penny | San Diego St | 27 | 22.6 | 220 | 4.46 | 22.2 | 171.6 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 67.4% | 2 |
| 94% | 2010 | Ben Tate | Auburn | 58 | 22.0 | 220 | 4.43 | 20.2 | 104.8 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 51.5% | 1 |
| 92% | 2014 | Bishop Sankey | Washington | 54 | 22.0 | 209 | 4.49 | 25.2 | 143.9 | 2.2 | 23.4 | 59.9% | 1 |
| 90% | 2018 | Derrius Guice | LSU | 59 | 21.2 | 224 | 4.49 | 19.8 | 104.6 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 48.6% | 1 |
| 88% | 2018 | Royce Freeman | Oregon Ducks | 71 | 22.5 | 229 | 4.54 | 20.3 | 122.7 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 46.1% | 1 |
| 86% | 2015 | Melvin Gordon III | Wisconsin | 15 | 22.4 | 215 | 4.52 | 24.5 | 184.8 | 1.4 | 10.9 | 57.5% | 8 |
| 84% | 2012 | Ronnie Hillman | San Diego St | 67 | 21.0 | 200 | 4.45 | 23.9 | 131.6 | 1.9 | 20.8 | 70.9% | 0 |
| 82% | 2012 | David Wilson | Virginia Tech | 32 | 21.2 | 206 | 4.49 | 20.7 | 122.1 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 64.9% | 1 |
| 80% | 2015 | Tevin Coleman | Indiana | 73 | 22.4 | 206 | 4.50 | 22.5 | 169.7 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 64.2% | 4 |
PICK 52: CAM AKERS, LOS ANGELES RAMS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | Cam Akers | Florida St | 52 | 21.2 | 217 | 4.47 | 21.0 | 103.8 | 2.7 | 19.8 | 77.2% | N/A |
| 98% | 2011 | Shane Vereen | California | 56 | 22.6 | 210 | 4.55 | 19.3 | 97.3 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 58.7% | 1 |
| 96% | 2012 | Ronnie Hillman | San Diego St | 67 | 21.0 | 200 | 4.45 | 23.9 | 131.6 | 1.9 | 20.8 | 70.9% | 0 |
| 94% | 2014 | Bishop Sankey | Washington | 54 | 22.0 | 209 | 4.49 | 25.2 | 143.9 | 2.2 | 23.4 | 59.9% | 1 |
| 91% | 2017 | Dalvin Cook | Florida St | 41 | 22.1 | 210 | 4.49 | 22.2 | 135.6 | 2.5 | 36.8 | 63.4% | 5 |
| 89% | 2009 | LeSean McCoy | Pittsburgh | 53 | 21.1 | 204 | 4.60 | 23.7 | 114.5 | 2.5 | 23.5 | 80.6% | 9 |
| 87% | 2012 | David Wilson | Virginia Tech | 32 | 21.2 | 206 | 4.49 | 20.7 | 122.1 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 64.9% | 1 |
| 85% | 2015 | Duke Johnson Jr. | Miami (FL) | 77 | 21.9 | 207 | 4.54 | 18.6 | 127.1 | 2.9 | 32.4 | 68.4% | 3 |
| 83% | 2008 | Rashard Mendenhall | Illinois | 23 | 21.2 | 225 | 4.45 | 20.2 | 129.3 | 2.6 | 24.5 | 50.0% | 6 |
| 80% | 2018 | Derrius Guice | LSU | 59 | 21.2 | 224 | 4.49 | 19.8 | 104.6 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 48.6% | 1 |
| 78% | 2010 | Ben Tate | Auburn | 58 | 22.0 | 220 | 4.43 | 20.2 | 104.8 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 51.5% | 1 |
PICK 55: J.K. DOBBINS, BALTIMORE RAVENS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | J.K. Dobbins | Ohio St | 55 | 21.7 | 209 | 4.66 | 21.5 | 143.1 | 1.6 | 17.6 | 54.8% | N/A |
| 98% | 2014 | Bishop Sankey | Washington | 54 | 22.0 | 209 | 4.49 | 25.2 | 143.9 | 2.2 | 23.4 | 59.9% | 1 |
| 96% | 2012 | David Wilson | Virginia Tech | 32 | 21.2 | 206 | 4.49 | 20.7 | 122.1 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 64.9% | 1 |
| 94% | 2012 | LaMichael James | Oregon | 61 | 22.9 | 194 | 4.45 | 20.6 | 150.4 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 50.1% | 0 |
| 92% | 2012 | Ronnie Hillman | San Diego St | 67 | 21.0 | 200 | 4.45 | 23.9 | 131.6 | 1.9 | 20.8 | 70.9% | 0 |
| 90% | 2015 | Tevin Coleman | Indiana | 73 | 22.4 | 206 | 4.50 | 22.5 | 169.7 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 64.2% | 4 |
| 88% | 2008 | Jamaal Charles | Texas | 73 | 21.7 | 200 | 4.38 | 19.9 | 124.5 | 1.3 | 15.3 | 59.5% | 4 |
| 86% | 2010 | Ben Tate | Auburn | 58 | 22.0 | 220 | 4.43 | 20.2 | 104.8 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 51.5% | 1 |
| 84% | 2014 | Tre Mason | Auburn | 75 | 21.1 | 207 | 4.50 | 22.6 | 129.7 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 39.3% | 1 |
| 82% | 2011 | Shane Vereen | California | 56 | 22.6 | 210 | 4.55 | 19.3 | 97.3 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 58.7% | 1 |
| 80% | 2018 | Rashaad Penny | San Diego St | 27 | 22.6 | 220 | 4.46 | 22.2 | 171.6 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 67.4% | 2 |
OTHER RUNNINGS BACKS DRAFTED IN THE EARLY ROUNDS
Zack Moss is the surprise best-projected running back in the group of later-second and third-round running backs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the biggest disappointment, though he joins an ideal situation with Tom Brady and little competition on the roster.
PICK 62: A.J. DILLON, GREEN BAY PACKERS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | A.J. Dillon | Boston College | 62 | 22.3 | 247 | 4.53 | 26.4 | 141.6 | 1.1 | 16.3 | 53.8% | NA |
| 98% | 2010 | Toby Gerhart | Stanford | 51 | 23.4 | 231 | 4.60 | 26.4 | 143.9 | 0.9 | 12.1 | 65.6% | 3 |
| 97% | 2018 | Royce Freeman | Oregon Ducks | 71 | 22.5 | 229 | 4.54 | 20.3 | 122.7 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 46.1% | 1 |
| 95% | 2016 | Derrick Henry | Alabama | 45 | 22.1 | 247 | 4.54 | 26.3 | 147.9 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 73.6% | 3 |
| 93% | 2011 | Mikel Leshoure | Illinois | 57 | 21.7 | 227 | 4.65 | 21.6 | 130.5 | 1.3 | 15.1 | 52.8% | 4 |
| 92% | 2014 | Carlos Hyde | Ohio St | 57 | 22.9 | 230 | 4.66 | 18.9 | 138.3 | 1.5 | 13.4 | 45.0% | 1 |
| 90% | 2010 | Montario Hardesty | Tennessee | 59 | 23.6 | 225 | 4.49 | 21.7 | 103.5 | 1.9 | 23.2 | 65.8% | 1 |
| 88% | 2018 | Derrius Guice | LSU Tigers | 59 | 21.2 | 224 | 4.49 | 19.8 | 104.6 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 48.6% | 1 |
| 86% | 2012 | Doug Martin | Boise St | 31 | 23.6 | 223 | 4.55 | 20.2 | 99.9 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 57.7% | 7 |
| 85% | 2014 | Jeremy Hill | LSU | 55 | 21.9 | 233 | 4.66 | 16.9 | 116.8 | 1.5 | 15.1 | 56.9% | 6 |
| 83% | 2010 | Ben Tate | Auburn | 58 | 22.0 | 220 | 4.43 | 20.2 | 104.8 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 51.5% | 1 |
PICK 76: KE’SHAWN VAUGHN, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | Vanderbilt | 76 | 23.3 | 214 | 4.51 | 16.6 | 85.7 | 2.4 | 23.8 | 65.2% | NA |
| 98% | 2011 | Shane Vereen | California | 56 | 22.6 | 210 | 4.55 | 19.3 | 97.3 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 58.7% | 1 |
| 96% | 2016 | C.J. Prosise | Notre Dame | 90 | 22.3 | 220 | 4.48 | 15.7 | 102.9 | 2.6 | 30.8 | 48.7% | 1 |
| 94% | 2007 | Brandon Jackson | Nebraska | 63 | 21.9 | 210 | 4.55 | 13.4 | 70.6 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 41.7% | 0 |
| 92% | 2010 | Montario Hardesty | Tennessee | 59 | 23.6 | 225 | 4.49 | 21.7 | 103.5 | 1.9 | 23.2 | 65.8% | 1 |
| 90% | 2014 | Charles Sims | West Virginia | 69 | 24.0 | 214 | 4.48 | 17.3 | 91.3 | 3.8 | 33.4 | 60.9% | 1 |
| 88% | 2015 | Duke Johnson Jr. | Miami (FL) | 77 | 21.9 | 207 | 4.54 | 18.6 | 127.1 | 2.9 | 32.4 | 68.4% | 3 |
| 86% | 2012 | Isaiah Pead | Cincinnati | 50 | 22.7 | 197 | 4.47 | 18.2 | 96.9 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 53.8% | 0 |
| 84% | 2017 | Kareem Hunt | Toledo | 86 | 22.1 | 216 | 4.62 | 20.0 | 112.5 | 3.2 | 31.0 | 57.1% | 12 |
| 82% | 2015 | Ameer Abdullah | Nebraska | 54 | 22.2 | 205 | 4.60 | 20.3 | 123.9 | 1.7 | 20.7 | 51.2% | 1 |
| 80% | 2011 | Alex Green | Hawaii | 96 | 23.2 | 225 | 4.55 | 10.4 | 85.6 | 1.9 | 25.9 | 74.8% | 0 |
PICK 86: ZACK MOSS, BUFFALO BILLS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | Zack Moss | Utah Utes | 86 | 22.7 | 223 | 4.65 | 18.0 | 108.6 | 2.2 | 29.8 | 55.4% | NA |
| 98% | 2017 | Kareem Hunt | Toledo | 86 | 22.1 | 216 | 4.62 | 20.0 | 112.5 | 3.2 | 31.0 | 57.1% | 12 |
| 97% | 2007 | Dwayne Wright | Fresno St | 111 | 24.2 | 228 | 4.73 | 21.8 | 121.8 | 2.4 | 18.4 | 67.6% | 0 |
| 95% | 2017 | James Conner | Pittsburgh | 105 | 22.3 | 233 | 4.65 | 16.7 | 84.5 | 1.6 | 23.2 | 40.7% | 7 |
| 93% | 2016 | C.J. Prosise | Notre Dame | 90 | 22.3 | 220 | 4.48 | 15.7 | 102.9 | 2.6 | 30.8 | 48.7% | 1 |
| 91% | 2011 | Daniel Thomas | Kansas St | 62 | 23.9 | 230 | 4.72 | 22.9 | 121.9 | 2.1 | 13.2 | 60.8% | 1 |
| 90% | 2015 | Duke Johnson Jr. | Miami (FL) | 77 | 21.9 | 207 | 4.54 | 18.6 | 127.1 | 2.9 | 32.4 | 68.4% | 3 |
| 88% | 2015 | Ameer Abdullah | Nebraska | 54 | 22.2 | 205 | 4.60 | 20.3 | 123.9 | 1.7 | 20.7 | 51.2% | 1 |
| 86% | 2011 | Shane Vereen | California | 56 | 22.6 | 210 | 4.55 | 19.3 | 97.3 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 58.7% | 1 |
| 85% | 2014 | Jeremy Hill | LSU | 55 | 21.9 | 233 | 4.66 | 16.9 | 116.8 | 1.5 | 15.1 | 56.9% | 6 |
| 83% | 2014 | Carlos Hyde | Ohio St | 57 | 22.9 | 230 | 4.66 | 18.9 | 138.3 | 1.5 | 13.4 | 45.0% | 1 |
PICK 93: DARRYNTON EVANS, TENNESSEE TITANS
| Similarity | Draft Year | Player | College | Draft Pos | Age | Weight | Forty | RuAtt/Gm | RuYds/Gm | Rec/Gm | RecYds/Gm | MS RuYds | Top-12 |
| 100% | 2020 | Darrynton Evans | Appalachian St | 93 | 22.1 | 203 | 4.41 | 18.3 | 106.0 | 1.5 | 14.1 | 48.0% | NA |
| 98% | 2007 | Antonio Pittman | Ohio St | 107 | 21.7 | 207 | 4.44 | 18.6 | 94.9 | 1.1 | 9.8 | 55.3% | 0 |
| 96% | 2018 | Nyheim Hines | North Carolina St | 104 | 21.8 | 198 | 4.38 | 15.1 | 85.5 | 2.0 | 11.7 | 47.6% | 1 |
| 93% | 2008 | Jamaal Charles | Texas | 73 | 21.7 | 200 | 4.38 | 19.9 | 124.5 | 1.3 | 15.3 | 59.5% | 4 |
| 91% | 2010 | Joe McKnight | USC | 112 | 22.4 | 198 | 4.47 | 13.7 | 84.5 | 1.8 | 12.2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 89% | 2012 | LaMichael James | Oregon | 61 | 22.9 | 194 | 4.45 | 20.6 | 150.4 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 50.1% | 0 |
| 87% | 2014 | Tre Mason | Auburn | 75 | 21.1 | 207 | 4.50 | 22.6 | 129.7 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 39.3% | 1 |
| 84% | 2012 | Lamar Miller | Miami (FL) | 97 | 21.4 | 212 | 4.40 | 18.9 | 106.0 | 1.4 | 7.1 | 72.6% | 1 |
| 82% | 2012 | Robert Turbin | Utah St | 106 | 22.7 | 222 | 4.50 | 19.2 | 116.7 | 1.3 | 13.2 | 41.0% | 0 |
| 80% | 2006 | Jerious Norwood | Mississippi St | 79 | 23.1 | 210 | 4.33 | 17.4 | 103.3 | 1.7 | 8.7 | 74.1% | 1 |
| 78% | 2009 | Glen Coffee | Alabama | 74 | 22.3 | 209 | 4.58 | 16.6 | 98.8 | 1.1 | 8.4 | 53.2% | 1 |
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