Evans: Fantasy Football Passing Report ahead of NFL Week 15 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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Evans: Fantasy Football Passing Report ahead of NFL Week 15

East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) catches a warm up pass before a game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

As the NFL becomes more and more pass-heavy, fantasy football managers need to know where and how teams are distributing their targets in the passing game.

Receiver usage data — specifically targets, air yards and routes run — is much better at predicting future receiving production than simply scanning box scores. This passing report analyzes every team’s target, air yard and route run from the previous week so that fantasy managers can make informed decisions with information that's actionable and up to date.

The report includes five categories, which are defined as the following:

  • Target: a pass attempt to a receiver
  • Target share: the percentage of targets that a player receives out of his team’s total number of targeted pass attempts
  • Route run %: the percentage of routes run by a receiver out of his team’s total number of passing plays
  • Air yards: the number of yards the ball travels in the air for every pass attempt, measured from the point at which the QB throws the football to the receiver’s location at the spot of the target.
  • Air-yard share: the percentage of air yards a player receives out of his team’s total air yards.

We can also leverage this data to provide actionable DFS analysis for the Week 15 slate and suggest waiver wire pickups for your fantasy leagues.

Before we get to the team-by-team breakdown, I have identified several players who have recently seen their roles change. These players have new receiving usage data over the last few games, indicating a potential change in their future production. Their fantasy stock is either rising or falling based on these usage metrics.

Fantasy Football Stock Up Fantasy Football Stock Down
WR Allen Robinson II WR Jarvis Landry
TE Mark Andrews WR Terry McLaurin
WR Rashard Higgins WR Chase Claypool
WR T.Y. Hilton WR Collin Johnson
WR Nelson Agholor WR Tyler Lockett
WR James Washington
WR D.K. Metcalf
RB Alvin Kamara

 

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Player Targets Target Share Route Run % Air-Yard Share Air Yards
DeAndre Hopkins 11 34% 93% 51% 104
Chase Edmonds 5 16% 52% 0% 0
Christian Kirk 4 13% 95% 2% 5
Dan Arnold 4 13% 39% 30% 62
Larry Fitzgerald 3 9% 70% 4% 8
KeeSean Johnson 2 6% 20% 9% 18
Maxx Williams 2 6% 41% 3% 6
Kenyan Drake 1 3% 36% 1% 2
DFS Angle

I dogged the Cardinals last week for using DeAndre Hopkins far too close to the line of scrimmage after deploying him with a measly 5.2-yard average depth of target in Week 13. Perhaps Kliff Kingsbury reads this passing report because the Cardinals finally unleashed him downfield in Week 14 with a 9.4-yard average depth of target. Unsurprisingly, Hopkins responded with a whopping 136 receiving yards. The star wideout is very much in play at $7,900 on DraftKings against a burnable Eagles secondary.

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