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Evans: Fantasy Football Passing Report ahead of NFL Week 12

Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Will Fuller V (15) and quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) celebrate during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in a AFC Divisional Round playoff football game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

As the NFL becomes more and more pass-heavy, fantasy football managers need to know where and how teams are distributing their targets in the passing game.

Receiver usage data — specifically targets, air yards and routes run — is much better at predicting future receiving production than simply scanning box scores. This passing report analyzes every team’s target, air yard and route run from the previous week so that fantasy managers can make informed decisions with information that's actionable and up to date.

The report includes five categories, which are defined as the following:

  • Target: a pass attempt to a receiver
  • Target share: the percentage of targets that a player receives out of his team’s total number of targeted pass attempts
  • Route run %: the percentage of routes run by a receiver out of his team’s total number of passing plays
  • Air yards: the number of yards the ball travels in the air for every pass attempt, measured from the point at which the QB throws the football to the receiver’s location at the spot of the target.
  • Air-yard share: the percentage of air yards a player receives out of his team’s total air yards.

Additionally, we can leverage this data to provide actionable DFS analysis for the Week 12 slate and suggest waiver wire pickups for your fantasy leagues.

Before we get to the team-by-team breakdown, I have identified several players who have recently seen their roles change. These players have new receiving usage data over the last few games, indicating a potential change in their future production. Their fantasy stock is either rising or falling based on these usage metrics.

Fantasy Football Stock Up Fantasy Football Stock Down
TE Mark Andrews WR Marquise Brown
WR Curtis Samuel WR Mecole Hardman
WR Amari Cooper
WR Will Fuller V

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT


Player Targets Target Share Route Run % Air Yards Air-Yard Share
Larry Fitzgerald 10 26% 86% 43 15%
DeAndre Hopkins 8 21% 96% 66 23%
Christian Kirk 6 16% 98% 77 27%
Chase Edmonds 4 11% 53% 29 10%
Kenyan Drake 4 11% 33% 0 0%
Dan Arnold 2 5% 37% 28 10%
Andy Isabella 2 5% 35% 23 8%
Maxx Williams 2 5% 33% 22 8%

I would not count on Larry Fitzgerald leading the team in targets again this season. DeAndre Hopkins will bounce back. Christian Kirk will rebound. And all will be right in the world.

DFS Angle

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