If you want to win a DFS tournament, it’s essential to leverage PFF’s DFS ownership projections. Knowing what your competitors are going to do ahead of time provides an edge that simply not enough DFS gamers take advantage of.
Click here for more PFF tools:
What you’ll unearth is plenty of players across all positions that rank high in PFF’s fantasy projections and fantasy football rankings but boast low rostership percentages. So, contrary to popular opinion, you don't need to galaxy-brain sub-1% rostered players that don’t stand a chance to sniff a winning lineup.
That’s what the winner of the DraftKings NFL $1.75M PLAY-ACTION contest did when he/she built a team that featured five players with sub-10% rostership. Three players in that lineup — Najee Harris, Mike Williams, Tyler Higbee — were identified in last week’s DFS cheat sheet.
Related content for you: Week 4 WR/CB mismatches and shadow coverages to leverage in DFS & fantasy football leagues via Ian Hartitz
High Tier ($6,500-plus)
Tournament-winning DFS lineups faded the polarizing mobile rookie Justin Fields in favor of established veteran quarterbacks playing in high-powered offenses. Most notably, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert were littered across top rosters.
So who’s the quarterback to target for Week 4? Dak Prescott.
The Dallas Cowboys quarterback ranks fourth in expected fantasy points per game but is underpriced at $6,700. He takes on a Carolina Panthers defense that has yet to be tested by a true elite signal-caller, and it will have to do so without first-round rookie cornerback Jaycee Horn, who has allowed the league’s third-lowest passer rating in coverage this season.
Allen is also in strong consideration at $8,000. My No. 1 ranked quarterback for Week 4’s 29.2 expected fantasy points per game ranks nearly two points ahead of the next closest quarterback, and he’s actually underperformed versus expectation three weeks into the season.
Look for Allen to gain ground on meeting his extremely high standard versus the Houston Texans as a 16.5-home favorite. It’s the second-best quarterback matchup, per PFF’s strength of schedule tool, and Buffalo throws more than nearly every other team. The Bills' 47 passing attempts per game rank third behind only Las Vegas and Tampa Bay.
The other standout sub-$7K quarterback is Jalen Hurts, who showed on Monday night that he can rack up fantasy points even when the game is out of reach. He ranks second in the NFL in quarterback rushing and gets to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
Low Tier ($6,500 and under)
The Vikings rank 31st in explosive pass percentage allowed, and the Browns rank seventh in explosive pass plays created. Mayfield also ranks top-10 in play-action rate, and Minnesota has struggled to cover opposing WRs versus that concept. The Vikings rank 30th in open target percentage when facing play action.
I’m a sucker for revenge game narratives and cheap mobile quarterbacks. So naturally, Jacoby Brissett gets a mention here at just $5,100 because of what he displayed last week ahead of a reunion matchup versus his old team, the Indianapolis Colts.
The Miami Dolphins quarterback finished Week 3 as PFF’s ninth-highest graded passer and fourth in total expected fantasy points (25.4). He also rushed seven times for 37 yards (six scrambles) with an additional score.
The backup flashed the entire package of what DFS gamers should want in a low-salaried signal-caller and should not be overlooked in a plus-matchup. Indy has allowed the highest passing touchdown rate this season and ranks 28th in yards per pass attempt.
Also, give Justin Fields another shot if he starts. The mobility and arm talent are still there, and the matchup versus the Lions defense is vastly superior to what he faced a week ago in Cleveland.