Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy Football: Hunting Week 9's best DFS stacks

Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the New York Jets at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

  • High-upside RB-DST stack for Week 7: The Las Vegas Raiders have a high chance of being the highest-scoring RB-DST stack at a lower cost.
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

This DFS main-slate stacks analysis is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below harness the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have happened over the past several years and thereby point to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.


QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
GB DET 10.9 Aaron Rodgers QB 23.6 5,900 22.2 7,000
GB DET 10.9 Allen Lazard WR 13.6 6,000 11.1 6,500
BUF NYJ 9.2 Josh Allen QB 26.3 8,500 24.7 9,300
BUF NYJ 9.2 Stefon Diggs WR 17.8 8,400 14.0 8,900
ATL LAC 8.1 Marcus Mariota QB 21.0 5,300 19.6 7,100
ATL LAC 8.1 Drake London WR 15.9 4,900 12.5 5,600
LAC ATL 7.7 Justin Herbert QB 22.6 7,200 21.2 7,800
LAC ATL 7.7 Josh Palmer WR 12.5 5,100 9.9 6,200
CIN CAR 6.4 Joe Burrow QB 22.8 6,600 21.3 8,500
CIN CAR 6.4 Tee Higgins WR 19.7 7,300 15.7 8,000
JAX LV 6.2 Trevor Lawrence QB 17.9 5,200 16.6 6,800
JAX LV 6.2 Christian Kirk WR 13.7 5,500 10.9 6,300
ARZ SEA 6.1 Kyler Murray QB 22.8 7,400 21.5 8,200
ARZ SEA 6.1 DeAndre Hopkins WR 19.5 7,900 15.2 8,600
LA TB 5.6 Matthew Stafford QB 18.2 5,600 16.9 6,700
LA TB 5.6 Cooper Kupp WR 21.1 8,900 16.3 9,000
LV JAX 4.9 Derek Carr QB 19.0 5,400 17.6 6,800
LV JAX 4.9 Davante Adams WR 17.9 8,100 14.0 8,100
DET GB 4.5 Jared Goff QB 15.1 5,500 14.2 7,100
DET GB 4.5 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.7 6,600 11.2 7,100
MIN WAS 4.4 Kirk Cousins QB 17.9 6,200 16.7 7,900
MIN WAS 4.4 Justin Jefferson WR 18.8 8,600 14.8 9,000
TB LA 4.0 Tom Brady QB 22.0 6,000 20.2 6,900
TB LA 4.0 Mike Evans WR 19.2 7,200 15.2 7,700
SEA ARZ 3.7 Geno Smith QB 19.9 5,800 18.5 7,500
SEA ARZ 3.7 D.K. Metcalf WR 15.7 6,400 12.6 7,400
CHI MIA 3.4 Justin Fields QB 17.6 5,300 16.4 7,400
CHI MIA 3.4 Darnell Mooney WR 11.2 4,700 8.9 6,100
CAR CIN 3.4 P.J. Walker QB 15.4 5,200 14.3 6,500
CAR CIN 3.4 D.J. Moore WR 18.1 5,800 14.0 7,000
MIA CHI 3.0 Tua Tagovailoa QB 21.8 6,700 20.3 8,000
MIA CHI 3.0 Tyreek Hill WR 23.2 8,500 18.1 8,700
NE IND 2.9 Mac Jones QB 17.1 5,100 16.1 6,400
NE IND 2.9 Jakobi Meyers WR 13.2 5,400 10.3 6,800
IND NE 2.4 Sam Ehlinger QB 15.9 5,000 15.0 6,300
IND NE 2.4 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.6 6,800 9.8 6,400
NYJ BUF 2.4 Zach Wilson QB 14.8 5,100 14.0 6,600
NYJ BUF 2.4 Garrett Wilson WR 12.9 4,800 10.2 5,800
WAS MIN 2.4 Taylor Heinicke QB 16.9 5,400 15.9 7,200
WAS MIN 2.4 Terry McLaurin WR 13.5 5,900 10.6 7,200

RUNNING BACK/DST

RB/DST players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
LAC ATL 11.1 Austin Ekeler RB 18.5 8,800 15.6 9,400
LAC ATL 11.1 Chargers DST DST 6.5 3,400 6.5 3,900
LV JAX 8.6 Josh Jacobs RB 16.4 7,300 14.4 8,800
LV JAX 8.6 Raiders DST DST 6.7 3,200 6.7 3,500
GB DET 8.1 Aaron Jones RB 16.0 7,400 14.0 7,800
GB DET 8.1 Packers DST DST 7.1 3,700 7.1 4,100
SEA ARZ 6.4 Kenneth Walker III RB 16.4 6,200 14.4 8,300
SEA ARZ 6.4 Seahawks DST DST 6.2 2,500 6.2 4,100
TB LA 5.9 Leonard Fournette RB 12.7 6,600 11.1 7,100
TB LA 5.9 Buccaneers DST DST 6.8 3,000 6.8 4,700
DET GB 5.9 D'Andre Swift RB 14.3 6,400 12.1 7,500
DET GB 5.9 Lions DST DST 3.5 2,600 3.5 3,200
ARZ SEA 5.9 James Conner RB 11.1 5,800 9.8 6,600
ARZ SEA 5.9 Cardinals DST DST 7.3 2,900 7.3 4,000
ATL LAC 5.8 Tyler Allgeier RB 9.9 5,400 8.9 6,400
ATL LAC 5.8 Falcons DST DST 5.4 2,800 5.4 3,100
NE IND 5.7 Rhamondre Stevenson RB 14.0 6,200 12.4 8,000
NE IND 5.7 Patriots DST DST 7.7 4,100 7.7 4,900
MIA CHI 5.6 Raheem Mostert RB 14.4 6,100 12.6 6,500
MIA CHI 5.6 Dolphins DST DST 9.6 3,800 9.6 3,600
BUF NYJ 5.5 Devin Singletary RB 9.5 5,700 8.5 6,000
BUF NYJ 5.5 Bills DST DST 8.8 4,300 8.8 5,000
CIN CAR 5.1 Joe Mixon RB 17.6 6,500 15.2 8,100
CIN CAR 5.1 Bengals DST DST 10.6 4,000 10.6 4,400
MIN WAS 5.1 Dalvin Cook RB 18.4 7,800 15.8 8,500
MIN WAS 5.1 Vikings DST DST 7.6 3,500 7.6 4,500
IND NE 3.8 Jonathan Taylor RB 16.7 7,700 14.5 6,800
IND NE 3.8 Colts DST DST 6.7 2,700 6.7 4,200
NYJ BUF 3.5 James Robinson RB 8.0 5,400 7.1 6,000
NYJ BUF 3.5 Jets DST DST 5.2 2,000 5.2 3,400
JAX LV 3.1 Travis Etienne RB 15.3 6,300 13.3 7,600
JAX LV 3.1 Jaguars DST DST 5.7 3,100 5.7 3,800
CAR CIN 2.8 D'Onta Foreman RB 10.4 6,000 9.3 7,300
CAR CIN 2.8 Panthers DST DST 5.4 2,300 5.4 3,300
WAS MIN 2.3 Antonio Gibson RB 10.7 5,500 9.3 6,100
WAS MIN 2.3 Commanders DST DST 5.8 2,400 5.8 3,700
CHI MIA 0.8 David Montgomery RB 10.1 6,000 9.0 7,000
LA TB 0.8 Darrell Henderson RB 12.0 5,100 10.7 5,700
CHI MIA 0.8 Bears DST DST 5.6 2,500 5.6 3,000
LA TB 0.8 Rams DST DST 4.3 3,300 4.3 4,300

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

QB/WR/TE players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
GB DET 11.0 Aaron Rodgers QB 23.6 5,900 22.2 7,000
GB DET 11.0 Allen Lazard WR 13.6 6,000 11.1 6,500
GB DET 11.0 Robert Tonyan TE 11.3 3,800 9.0 5,000
ARZ SEA 9.2 Kyler Murray QB 22.8 7,400 21.5 8,200
ARZ SEA 9.2 DeAndre Hopkins WR 19.5 7,900 15.2 8,600
ARZ SEA 9.2 Zach Ertz TE 10.6 5,100 8.3 6,600
LAC ATL 9.2 Justin Herbert QB 22.6 7,200 21.2 7,800
LAC ATL 9.2 Josh Palmer WR 12.5 5,100 9.9 6,200
LAC ATL 9.2 Gerald Everett TE 12.4 4,800 9.8 5,800
BUF NYJ 9.1 Josh Allen QB 26.3 8,500 24.7 9,300
BUF NYJ 9.1 Stefon Diggs WR 17.8 8,400 14.0 8,900
BUF NYJ 9.1 Dawson Knox TE 10.2 3,500 8.2 5,100
LV JAX 8.9 Derek Carr QB 19.0 5,400 17.6 6,800
LV JAX 8.9 Davante Adams WR 17.9 8,100 14.0 8,100
LV JAX 8.9 Darren Waller TE 10.0 4,900 7.9 6,000
CIN CAR 7.9 Joe Burrow QB 22.8 6,600 21.3 8,500
CIN CAR 7.9 Tee Higgins WR 19.7 7,300 15.7 8,000
CIN CAR 7.9 Hayden Hurst TE 9.6 3,600 7.6 5,300
ATL LAC 7.1 Marcus Mariota QB 21.0 5,300 19.6 7,100
ATL LAC 7.1 Drake London WR 15.9 4,900 12.5 5,600
ATL LAC 7.1 Kyle Pitts TE 13.0 4,500 10.4 6,300
MIN WAS 6.0 Kirk Cousins QB 17.9 6,200 16.7 7,900
MIN WAS 6.0 Justin Jefferson WR 18.8 8,600 14.8 9,000
MIN WAS 6.0 T.J. Hockenson TE 9.5 5,000 7.6 6,200
MIA CHI 5.8 Tua Tagovailoa QB 21.8 6,700 20.3 8,000
MIA CHI 5.8 Tyreek Hill WR 23.2 8,500 18.1 8,700
MIA CHI 5.8 Mike Gesicki TE 8.0 4,000 6.5 5,500
LA TB 4.6 Matthew Stafford QB 18.2 5,600 16.9 6,700
LA TB 4.6 Cooper Kupp WR 21.1 8,900 16.3 9,000
LA TB 4.6 Tyler Higbee TE 11.3 3,700 8.7 6,100
TB LA 3.8 Tom Brady QB 22.0 6,000 20.2 6,900
TB LA 3.8 Mike Evans WR 19.2 7,200 15.2 7,700
TB LA 3.8 Cade Otton TE 7.5 3,100 6.0 4,800
SEA ARZ 3.3 Geno Smith QB 19.9 5,800 18.5 7,500
SEA ARZ 3.3 D.K. Metcalf WR 15.7 6,400 12.6 7,400
SEA ARZ 3.3 Noah Fant TE 7.9 2,900 6.2 4,800
CAR CIN 3.0 P.J. Walker QB 15.4 5,200 14.3 6,500
CAR CIN 3.0 D.J. Moore WR 18.1 5,800 14.0 7,000
CAR CIN 3.0 Tommy Tremble TE 5.3 2,700 4.2 4,500
DET GB 2.9 Jared Goff QB 15.1 5,500 14.2 7,100
DET GB 2.9 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.7 6,600 11.2 7,100
DET GB 2.9 Brock Wright TE 8.8 2,500 6.9 4,400
NYJ BUF 2.2 Zach Wilson QB 14.8 5,100 14.0 6,600
NYJ BUF 2.2 Garrett Wilson WR 12.9 4,800 10.2 5,800
NYJ BUF 2.2 Tyler Conklin TE 6.8 3,200 5.2 5,200
CHI MIA 2.0 Justin Fields QB 17.6 5,300 16.4 7,400
CHI MIA 2.0 Darnell Mooney WR 11.2 4,700 8.9 6,100
CHI MIA 2.0 Cole Kmet TE 7.6 3,000 5.9 4,700
NE IND 2.0 Mac Jones QB 17.1 5,100 16.1 6,400
NE IND 2.0 Jakobi Meyers WR 13.2 5,400 10.3 6,800
NE IND 2.0 Hunter Henry TE 8.0 3,000 6.4 4,700
JAX LV 2.0 Trevor Lawrence QB 17.9 5,200 16.6 6,800
JAX LV 2.0 Christian Kirk WR 13.7 5,500 10.9 6,300
JAX LV 2.0 Evan Engram TE 9.0 3,300 7.0 5,200
WAS MIN 0.8 Taylor Heinicke QB 16.9 5,400 15.9 7,200
WAS MIN 0.8 Terry McLaurin WR 13.5 5,900 10.6 7,200
WAS MIN 0.8 Logan Thomas TE 6.3 2,900 5.0 5,000
IND NE 0.8 Sam Ehlinger QB 15.9 5,000 15.0 6,300
IND NE 0.8 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.6 6,800 9.8 6,400
IND NE 0.8 Kylen Granson TE 3.2 2,700 2.5 4,400

QUARTERBACK/RUNNING BACK/WIDE RECEIVER

QB/RB/WR players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
GB DET 10.8 Aaron Rodgers QB 23.6 5,900 22.2 7,000
GB DET 10.8 Aaron Jones RB 16.0 7,400 14.0 7,800
GB DET 10.8 Allen Lazard WR 13.6 6,000 11.1 6,500
BUF NYJ 10.7 Josh Allen QB 26.3 8,500 24.7 9,300
BUF NYJ 10.7 Devin Singletary RB 9.5 5,700 8.5 6,000
BUF NYJ 10.7 Stefon Diggs WR 17.8 8,400 14.0 8,900
LAC ATL 9.5 Justin Herbert QB 22.6 7,200 21.2 7,800
LAC ATL 9.5 Austin Ekeler RB 18.5 8,800 15.6 9,400
LAC ATL 9.5 Josh Palmer WR 12.5 5,100 9.9 6,200
JAX LV 7.3 Trevor Lawrence QB 17.9 5,200 16.6 6,800
JAX LV 7.3 Travis Etienne RB 15.3 6,300 13.3 7,600
JAX LV 7.3 Christian Kirk WR 13.7 5,500 10.9 6,300
ATL LAC 6.7 Marcus Mariota QB 21.0 5,300 19.6 7,100
ATL LAC 6.7 Tyler Allgeier RB 9.9 5,400 8.9 6,400
ATL LAC 6.7 Drake London WR 15.9 4,900 12.5 5,600
DET GB 6.5 Jared Goff QB 15.1 5,500 14.2 7,100
DET GB 6.5 D'Andre Swift RB 14.3 6,400 12.1 7,500
DET GB 6.5 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.7 6,600 11.2 7,100
SEA ARZ 5.4 Geno Smith QB 19.9 5,800 18.5 7,500
SEA ARZ 5.4 Kenneth Walker III RB 16.4 6,200 14.4 8,300
SEA ARZ 5.4 D.K. Metcalf WR 15.7 6,400 12.6 7,400
CIN CAR 5.2 Joe Burrow QB 22.8 6,600 21.3 8,500
CIN CAR 5.2 Joe Mixon RB 17.6 6,500 15.2 8,100
CIN CAR 5.2 Tee Higgins WR 19.7 7,300 15.7 8,000
ARZ SEA 4.9 Kyler Murray QB 22.8 7,400 21.5 8,200
ARZ SEA 4.9 James Conner RB 11.1 5,800 9.8 6,600
ARZ SEA 4.9 DeAndre Hopkins WR 19.5 7,900 15.2 8,600
LA TB 4.4 Matthew Stafford QB 18.2 5,600 16.9 6,700
LA TB 4.4 Darrell Henderson RB 12.0 5,100 10.7 5,700
LA TB 4.4 Cooper Kupp WR 21.1 8,900 16.3 9,000
LV JAX 4.2 Derek Carr QB 19.0 5,400 17.6 6,800
LV JAX 4.2 Josh Jacobs RB 16.4 7,300 14.4 8,800
LV JAX 4.2 Davante Adams WR 17.9 8,100 14.0 8,100
TB LA 3.8 Tom Brady QB 22.0 6,000 20.2 6,900
TB LA 3.8 Leonard Fournette RB 12.7 6,600 11.1 7,100
TB LA 3.8 Mike Evans WR 19.2 7,200 15.2 7,700
CAR CIN 3.4 P.J. Walker QB 15.4 5,200 14.3 6,500
CAR CIN 3.4 D'Onta Foreman RB 10.4 6,000 9.3 7,300
CAR CIN 3.4 D.J. Moore WR 18.1 5,800 14.0 7,000
CHI MIA 3.2 Justin Fields QB 17.6 5,300 16.4 7,400
CHI MIA 3.2 David Montgomery RB 10.1 6,000 9.0 7,000
CHI MIA 3.2 Darnell Mooney WR 11.2 4,700 8.9 6,100
MIN WAS 3.2 Kirk Cousins QB 17.9 6,200 16.7 7,900
MIN WAS 3.2 Dalvin Cook RB 18.4 7,800 15.8 8,500
MIN WAS 3.2 Justin Jefferson WR 18.8 8,600 14.8 9,000
NYJ BUF 2.8 Zach Wilson QB 14.8 5,100 14.0 6,600
NYJ BUF 2.8 James Robinson RB 8.0 5,400 7.1 6,000
NYJ BUF 2.8 Garrett Wilson WR 12.9 4,800 10.2 5,800
IND NE 2.5 Sam Ehlinger QB 15.9 5,000 15.0 6,300
IND NE 2.5 Jonathan Taylor RB 16.7 7,700 14.5 6,800
IND NE 2.5 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.6 6,800 9.8 6,400
MIA CHI 2.4 Tua Tagovailoa QB 21.8 6,700 20.3 8,000
MIA CHI 2.4 Raheem Mostert RB 14.4 6,100 12.6 6,500
MIA CHI 2.4 Tyreek Hill WR 23.2 8,500 18.1 8,700
NE IND 2.4 Mac Jones QB 17.1 5,100 16.1 6,400
NE IND 2.4 Rhamondre Stevenson RB 14.0 6,200 12.4 8,000
NE IND 2.4 Jakobi Meyers WR 13.2 5,400 10.3 6,800
WAS MIN 1.7 Taylor Heinicke QB 16.9 5,400 15.9 7,200
WAS MIN 1.7 Antonio Gibson RB 10.7 5,500 9.3 6,100
WAS MIN 1.7 Terry McLaurin WR 13.5 5,900 10.6 7,200

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I find the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the entire simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but by matching 75 different matchups to each game and simulating 10,000 times, we can smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stacks for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call the “Highest scoring %” on the Y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.


HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scoring in the 10K simulations.

A way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

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