Welcome to the Week 4 Funnel Defense Report, where we examine trends in how defenses are most commonly attacked. It is meant to help narrow our focus from overall game-selection, down to the “run versus pass” level. We as fantasy gamers, like NFL game planners, ideally seek paths of least resistance.
The term “funnel defense,” or “pass funnel defense” was coined several years ago by the esteemed Adam Levitan. It has become common parlance among DFS players and other fantasy aficionados, and refers to defenses which are simultaneously soft against the pass and stout against the run.
Identifying such characteristics is not a one-time task, as injury and performance variation create an evolving landscape. In this space we will leverage, among other resources, up-to-date PFF defensive grades and metrics to stay on top of these constant changes and difference-making fantasy trends.
Top funnels
Todd Gurley scored 32 fantasy points against the 49ers on national television, so how can they still be considered a pass funnel? He didn’t exactly grind them to dust (4.0 yards per carry), and he enjoyed positive touchdown variance. The largest problem with San Francisco’s funnel status isn’t the defense, which remains far tougher on the ground (3.5 yards per carry allowed, 18th-graded run stopping) than in the air (league-worst-graded pass coverage), and will return standout linebacker Reuben Foster relatively soon.
San Francisco’s issue is an offense scoring the ninth-fewest points per game (17), and the resulting negative game scripts. While it’s skewed by run-leaning opponents (Panthers, Seahawks, and Rams), the 49ers have faced a 48.3-percent neutral-situation run rate (sixth-highest). Until opponents anticipate having to keep up with San Francisco’s offense, they will employ more run-pass balance. With the 49ers allowing the second most plays (67.3) and sixth most points per snap (0.38), consistently pushing opponents to the air would pay significant dividends for fantasy.
Week 4: We won’t have the same issue against the Cardinals, who deploy the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (66 percent), run a ton of plays (69 per game), and feature a clown-car backfield. The only reason they have to hand off is keeping Carson Palmer in one piece, as their pass-blocking grades dead last. With San Francisco’s top three cornerbacks grading 74th, 97th, and 109th (out of 110), and Foster-replacement Ray-Ray Armstrong incapable of covering a pillow, the Cardinals won’t have to hold their blocks for long. All Arizona receivers, and Andre Ellington, are in play — especially those that roam the short-middle area, where Jared Goff just went eight-of-eight for 92 yards and two touchdowns.
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