Expected fantasy points: The top fantasy usage through Week 13

Hello, and welcome to Week 14 of the Expected Fantasy Points Report. If you’re unfamiliar with expected fantasy points, you can read this in-depth explanation from the offseason. You can also read more about expected touchdowns.

Every week we’ll be using a 10-season sample of play-by-play data to calculate expected fantasy points from a player’s seasonal or weekly usage. We look at each target (by distance from the end zone and depth of target) and each carry (by distance from the end zone and down and distance) and add this up to determine how valuable a player’s role was for fantasy. We can contrast this with fantasy production to measure efficiency.

In layman’s terms, expected fantasy points measures the exact worth of a player’s volume – “how many points a player should have scored” given his workload, based on what the average player would have scored.

Through 13 weeks of action, here are the top-25 players in expected fantasy points per game:

[Note: Full-season XFP is now available for download in spreadsheet form. We’ll be releasing it each week in our PFF Elite Facebook Group. This spreadsheet will also include valuable PFF-exclusive metrics like XTD, air yards, end zone targets, and more. If you’re not already an Elite subscriber I highly recommend joining.]

Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts

(XFP: 7.9, PPR: 8.1, Diff: +0.2)

Last week, following Eric Ebron’s season-ending injury, Doyle was highlighted as a top DFS play. Here was my reasoning:

“In 2018, Eric Ebron averaged only 27.3 snaps per game and 8.3 XFP per game when Doyle was on the field. When Doyle was inactive, Ebron’s numbers jumped to 46.9 snaps per game and 15.7 XFP per game. For perspective, Zach Ertz currently leads the position with 14.2 XFP per game. Based on these numbers, with both Ebron and T.Y. Hilton out, Doyle should be in store for a massive uptick in volume.”

Indeed, in Week 13 Doyle exceeded even my lofty expectations, playing on 94% of the snaps and recording 23.9 XFP. Not only did this lead the position in Week 13, but it was the third-most by any tight end this season. Doyle was productive on this good volume, scoring 19.3 fantasy points, and Doyle has always been productive on good volume. In an Ebron-less world, Doyle needs to be viewed as a top-six tight end.

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