Fantasy News & Analysis

Exception Report: Tyreek Hill's rise up the fantasy ranks

KANSAS CITY, MP - JANUARY 15: Wide receiver Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs tries turnover avoid the tackle attempt of inside linebacker Vince Williams #98 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 15, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive fantasy seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

Gaining traction in the first two years in the NFL is difficult, especially as a wide receiver. Typically, a player needs to be a high-round draft selection to gain the trust of the coaching staff and be an integral part of the offense. There have been 35 instances of a wide receiver eclipsing 80 catches in either their rookie or sophomore season. Tyreek Hill is vying to become number 36, but he has a lack of draft capital (as a fifth-round pick) working against him. Of those 35 occurrences, only three are players who were drafted in the fifth round or later. The list is below, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

Name Round Drafted Season Receptions
Stefon Diggs 5 2016 84
Marques Colston 7 2007 98
Dwight Clark 10 1980 82

How did he get here?

Hill is not the typical fifth-round draft pick. A star track athlete, Hill started his college career at community college before transferring to Oklahoma State as a ballyhooed junior college recruit. However, before his first season with the Cowboys ended, Hill was dismissed after domestic violence charges arose. He finished at the University of West Alabama, but NFL teams took note of the arrest despite strong workouts prior to the draft.

As a rookie, Hill was primarily a special teams player — a very good one — until injuries hit the wide receiver position. In the first six games, he played just 21 percent of the offensive snaps. After that week, when Jeremy Maclin was injured, Hill saw over 50 percent of the snaps for the remainder of the season. His yards per route run (2.30) ranked fifth among all receivers, partially fueled by his 43 percent catch rate on deep targets, 25th among wide receivers. What most noticed, however, was the 12 touchdowns on receptions (six), rushes (three), and special teams (three), and Hill was instantly labeled a regression candidate.

All offseason, the talk around training camp was the emphasis on Hill and his future in a “DeSean Jackson”-type role. Maclin was let go from the team and the Chiefs decided to focus on other positions in free agency and the draft. Going into 2017, the Chiefs had a backup plan at quarterback (rookie Patrick Mahomes) and lost their lead running back (Spencer Ware), so signs pointed to a strong season from Hill.

What has he done?

As mentioned, Hill was pegged as a player who could see forms of regression. If anything, this season is showing growth that has offset some of the “gimmicks” that helped him during Hill’s rookie season. His yards per route run at 2.16 is fairly consistent with that rookie number and ranks him eighth at the position. The difference is that Hill’s total number of routes in 2017 (285) already exceeds his figure from last year (260). Hill is also still catching deep passes at a similar rate (38 percent completion rate) but the total targets are higher than last year (13 to 12) and these targets make up 22.4 percent of his total, compared to 14.8 percent in 2016. There has been an uptick in average depth per target, going from a more possession-like 8.4 in 2016 to 11.8, which is similar to Ted Ginn and Tyrell Williams.

Quite simply, the volume is up without sacrificing much in the way of efficiency. In terms of outside placement compared to slot usage, Hill has been pretty consistent in both seasons. He saw 37 percent of his routes occur in the slot for 2016 and a slight decrease to 35 percent this year as Albert Wilson remains the primary slot receiver. When Hill is in the slot, his yards per route run remain above 2.00 and is targeted at roughly the same rate (roughly 25 percent of career routes on each) meaning he is effective in both situations.

What can he do?

While Hill doesn’t profile as an elite wide receiver, the Chiefs use him that way. He is targeted on over 20 percent of his routes, good for 16th among wide receivers while those aforementioned 285 routes run are 17th in the league. Comparing that to Travis Kelce, his main competition for targets, who has a 22 percent target rate on routes run and 294 total routes, both very similar to Hill. Effectively, this is a two-target offense for Alex Smith.

And speaking of Smith, it’s important to understand the season he is having and how it impacts Hill. Smith is surprisingly fourth in pass attempts and is leading the NFL in yards per attempt and passer rating while ranking third in completion rate. This is a banner season for a quarterback who has only exceeded 500 pass attempts once (he is on pace for a career high 521) and just threw his first interception of the season in the Chiefs’ ninth game.

As for deep passing — an area where Hill has done well — Smith has 35 attempts already (46 total last year) and is leading the NFL in accuracy rate on those passes (57 percent), yards accumulated on those passes (768) and tied for the lead with seven touchdown passes on those throws. Considering Hill has 13 of these attempts with Kelce (seven) and injured Chris Conley (four) the next in line; it is important for Smith to remain aggressive for Hill to remain a target threat.

Right now, Hill has 40 receptions through nine games, meaning he is slightly behind the 80-reception pace. That said, Hill only has two games under four receptions and is catching 69 percent of his total targets. The Chiefs continue to need his playmaking ability to make the playoffs, Hill is second in total yards after the catch, so I expect the team to ratchet back up his volume after a pair of two-reception weeks.

Call me optimistic that he flourishes down the stretch.

Confidence level: 65%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Hill is the WR3 in fantasy scoring (standard and PPR). While some may be disappointed in the rushing output, Hill still returns punts and already has a touchdown there as well, adding some value to the strong receiving output. Hill works outside and in the slot, is valuable in the deep passing game, has game breaking ability on every touch, and has been durable in his short career. His efficiency remains constant while the volume has increased, something that is usually reserved for only the most talented players. For keeper and dynasty league owners, it is time to treat Hill as a top-24 player overall and a WR1 for the foreseeable future.

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