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Best NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 14

Oct 18, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley (18) completes a touchdown reception on a pass from quarterback Matt Ryan (not pictured) against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Stacking is essential to success in DFS guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament.

An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.

We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.

This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the signal-caller position.

Focusing on this approach of identifying potential hits at quarterbacks, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.

WEEK 13 REVIEW

The late Derek Carr passing touchdown vaulted Las Vegas team stacks to the top of most DFS leaderboards. Second place in the $20 Milly Maker tournament had Jamison Crowder as a run-it-back option, but first place hit on a near-perfect lineup using just Carr and Darren Waller.

Waller was a part of our blowup model, but we didn’t correctly identify the Raiders as a game stack option last week. Our Cleveland/Tennessee game stack hit on a lot of the right components but required a one-off Waller in lineups to be successful.

The Patriots' defensive performance almost broke the slate if it wasn’t for Waller’s 200-yard, two-touchdown game. Stacks in general are the correct approach, especially if you pair the quarterback with a pass-catcher who breaks the slate. This is the upside created when making correlated plays in DFS, which has been evident every week this season.

Totals continue to trend down, as the mean this week is the fourth-lowest of 2020. Outside of the weather concerns in Week 8, this is the lowest total aside from the first two weeks of the season. The difference from previous weeks is that we actually have quite a few high-total games, but the low totals are dragging the mean down. Six games look to be playable from a game stack perspective, but few low totals appear to be viable options in Week 14.

In general, we should once again see spread-out ownership among game stacks. Game spreads also project most of these contests to stay close, which is the perfect opportunity for what we are looking for in game stacks.

Let’s take a closer look at the games that this model believes have the best opportunity to produce the most fantasy points at each position in Week 14.

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS

The opening touchdown spread added the hook, and juice was applied in spots on the Lions. This movement has been driven by 71% of the cash and 77% of the tickets on the Packers, with the spread next to the key number. PFF Greenline finds value on the moneyline — plus-325 has a 23.5% implied probability, and our models see that at a slightly higher possibility. This indicates an interesting game script that we can take advantage of from a game script perspective.

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