Recently, the PFF Fantasy staff got together for the first of many dynasty roundtables to share our opinions on several topics and questions. Without further adieu, here are this month’s topics:
How does being a dynasty-minded writer impact your drafting strategy in redraft leagues?
Steve Wyremski – I throw dynasty out the door when drafting for redraft leagues and do not put as much weight in age. With all things being equal, though, I will side with the young player. My strategy in redraft leagues is similar to how I approach dynasty start-ups. I take the best player available and typically wait on RB. More often than not, I start with WR-WR. With the continued turnover atop the RB Top 10 and the frequent new flavor of the year (i.e., Arian Foster), the most value is in starting your draft with WR-WR. Guys like Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson typically finish in the Top 10 (barring injury).
Bryan Fontaine – I do find myself not totally throwing away my dynasty strategy when drafting for a redraft league. In most start-up dynasty drafts, I will favor wide receiver and quarterback early and focus on running backs later, but in redraft leagues, I will be sure to draft at least one running back in the first two rounds. Frankly, there are not enough featured running backs available to wait on drafting them. As with dynasty leagues, I also tend to avoid veterans at the end of their careers unless I cannot possibly avoid passing up the value. I reserve caution when drafting rookie running backs. I have had success in recent years with players like Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, but rookie running backs do not come without risk.
Nishant Shailendra – In dynasty drafts, I am looking for top-notch talent and players with high potential, while putting less emphasis on short-term situation. If I am forced to play in a redraft league (happens to the best of us), I put much less emphasis on talent than I do situation. My rosters have a better balance between consistent production and potential. My focus shifts more to players with clear lines of sight to fantasy production, which means closely looking at their situation: supporting cast, offense, schedule etc. I will even draft players late who I know can provide steady production without high ceilings, something I avoid in dynasty.
Name one player you are trying to acquire in every dynasty league.
Wyremski – On the wire, it is Marcus Easley. Via a trade, it’s Jimmy Graham. Easley has got a ton of buzz from his teammates (Stevie Johnson and Ryan Fitzpatrick). He still needs some time to learn the NFL game, but is a fantastic stash. Three of the four receivers (Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, and Donald Jones) behind Stevie Johnson finished with a PFF score that was negative which shows the opportunity in Buffalo at receiver. He only has underachieving Evans and little else to compete with. Jimmy Graham is easy and a popular pick, but I am saying to overpay for him. It is easy; he finished #1 among TEs in fantasy points/snap and fantasy points per opportunity with 0.40 and 0.57, respectively. Most importantly, he finished #1 among TEs in targets as a percentage of snaps seeing a target 70% of the time in 2010. The next Antonio Gates? Oh, yes.
Fontaine – I am targeting Ryan Mathews in all initial drafts and by trade in all other dynasty leagues. His value is somewhat suppressed by his disappointing rookie season, but there are reasons to be optimistic about his career going forward. Like many rookies, Mathews was not trusted in pass protection situations, which limited his playing time. Still, he scored more fantasy points per snap played than his teammate Mike Tolbert (who scored 11 touchdowns). If you have doubts about his ability to be a feature back, watch his Week 17 performance on NFL Rewind against Denver.
Shailendra – I am trying to or already have acquired Jahvid Best in all leagues. The guy is electric and can take it to the house on any given catch or carry. He's a player that some might have soured on both because of injury concerns and the drafting of Mikel Leshoure, which to me is a perfect opportunity to buy potential top tier talent on the cheap.
Name one player you are avoiding/trading away in every dynasty league.
Wyremski – I am trading away and avoiding Steven Jackson. Sure, he’s the lone back in St. Louis and, because of it, will see carries and targets in 2011, but he’s approaching his late 20’s and that spells trouble for the average running back. Signs of it are showing in his fantasy points per snap and fantasy points per opportunity metrics. Among RBs with 100 or more carries, he ranked 65th in fantasy points per snap (0.33) and 57th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.27). At an ADP of RB#15, that’s a dynasty sell. Think his value is low now? Just wait until next year. Sell now.
Fontaine – I am reluctant to believe that Dwayne Bowe can remain a top-10 wide receiver. He benefited from an easy schedule in 2010 that vaulted him from perennial head case to the fourth best WR in PPR leagues. In fact, Bowe scored 62.8% of his total points for the year in five games and was barely a start-able option in seven other games (less than 12 FP/per week). Mike Clay has already projected that his touchdown rate will drop a whopping 6%, which works out to just 9 TD this year (had 15 last year). I have Bowe ranked 22nd among all wide receivers, which means he will be drafted long before I would consider taking him in all leagues. If I did own Bowe in a league, I would certainly be looking to capitalize on his current perceived value.
Shailendra – A player you will not see on any of squads is Peyton Hillis. Don't get me wrong; I love the way the guy runs and you cannot argue with his heart, but I do not think his body is going to be able to keep up with the type of contact he initiates. Hillis also had a large workload last season and he was visibly worn out towards the end of the season. My money is on his workload being substantially reduced in 2011 and beyond, especially with a now-healthy Montario Hardesty in the picture.
How do you balance talent versus opportunity?
Wyremski –The only time opportunity outweighs talent for me is if I need a short-term fix or if I want to capitalize on trade value. Otherwise, talent is king. For example, Daniel Thomas is a guy who has an immediate opportunity to start in Miami during 2011. While I do not believe he is a long-term player, I would still draft him, use him in 2011, and then trade him in 2012 after a productive rookie season for a player like Mikel Leshoure, who is more talented, but in a RBBC. Fred Jackson is another example of a player with opportunity over the last year that finished at RB#21 and could be bought VERY cheap. The cream always rises to the top, but I will not ignore opportunity. It’s a key part of a dynasty league.
Fontaine – I always value talent over immediate opportunity. So many dynasty owners do not anticipate change well and focus too much on current depth charts and situations over a long-term view of up to three seasons. Talent (unless injury strikes) always finds an opportunity, even if it is not on a player’s first stop in their career. When drafting in the early rounds, I focus first on what I consider elite talent with the next few years in mind. Opportunity does play an important factor and I look to take advantage of those situations in the middle to late rounds of drafts because of the uncertainty that those players will retain their current roles. Using our premium stats at PFF, we are able to identify breakout players based on their play in limited roles which can give you an edge over the competition. The Hillis and Lloyd Factors are excellent examples of this.
Name the Rams WR you are targeting for the long term.
Wyremski – I really want to say Danny Amendola with his 2010 stats and his position as the slot receiver in a McDaniels’ offense. He finished as WR#30 after playing only 60% of the team’s snaps. That is pretty tasty, right? While many assume he is the next Wes Welker and that may be the case, what concerns me about Amendola is the percentage of snaps from the slot (83%). That’s not Welker-like, that’s more similar to Brandon Stokley and that scares me. Instead, I am selecting Greg Salas in every rookie draft. He is a big red-zone target for Sam Bradford who also runs great routes on a team with plenty of opportunity at wide receiver.
Fontaine – Greg Salas is the player I am targeting on the Rams even though he has yet to play a down in the NFL. Mark Clayton was on a tear to start the 2010 season before he injured his knee and the tendency is to project his stats over a full season working with Sam Bradford. In fact, Clayton has only played a full season three times in his six-year career and has never had more than 939 receiving yards or 5 touchdowns (2006). Salas reminds me a lot of Austin Collie. Fresh out of Hawaii, he has the size to play outside and in the slot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Salas as Bradford’s favorite target in the next few years.
Shailendra – I would have to say that Mark Clayton (although he is going to be a free agent) is still the best Rams WR option for dynasty. Clayton was turning out to be a great acquisition for the Rams until he tore his knee in week 5 last year. I think Salas could be good long term, but Pettis and Gilyard do not excite me. Avery continues to struggle with injures, but it will be interesting to see how he develops. I'm not too high on Amendola, whose 8.1 yards per catch was lower than teammate Steven Jackson's (8.3). I think Clayton re-signs and Bradford will get him the ball early and often.
To submit future questions to our panel, contact us via Twitter:
- Steve Wyremski – @SteveWyremski
- Bryan Fontaine – @Bryan_Fontaine
- Nishant Shailendra – @PFF_Nishant
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