Applying Value Based Drafting to IDPs - Part II

When it comes to IDP leagues, one of the most frequent questions I hear from people is, “In what round should start drafting IDPs?”

The problem here is that there is no one-size-fits-all answer to their question. Roster requirements and scoring systems will ultimately dictate where it makes sense to start picking IDPs, but how exactly do we figure out where that point occurs?

In the first part of this series, I took a look at how we can apply Value Based Drafting (VBD) to IDPs and used this methodology to establish VBD rankings for the top 150 IDPs in a balanced scoring system with a starting roster of two DLs, three LBs, and two DBs.

Using baselines at each position allows for all three positions to be placed on the same scale so we can see how our options at each position stack up against each other. This approach takes the guesswork out of it for us as fantasy owners, and allows us to maximize value at each pick.

While the top 150 IDP chart is certainly beneficial, most of us do not play in IDP-only leagues. In order to truly understand the relative value of IDPs compared to their offensive counterparts, we need to combine what we did in Part I with the VBD numbers for offensive players. This combined set of VBD rankings will ultimately clue us in on when it’s time to pull the trigger on IDPs in our fantasy drafts.

To get our VDB rankings for offensive players, we need to first consider our roster. Again, we’re going to turn to Frank DuPont’s work on Value Based Drafting. To calculate his baselines, he uses a seven-man offensive roster of one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, and one flex. As you can see kickers will not be included in our rankings, as you really should not be drafting a kicker before the last round. With this starting lineup, DuPont calculates the following baselines:

Just like we did with the IDP baselines, we now need to look back to last season and see how our baselines scored in a standard PPR scoring system. Coming in at QB15 was Andy Dalton with 221 points, James Starks is our RB44 with 112 points, Deon Branch comes in at WR44 with 151 points, and our TE15 is Jared Cook with 141 points. If we then take these values and apply them to Mike Clay’s offensive projections, we get the following VBD rankings:

[table id=494 /]

A close look at these rankings shows the value at RB this season, as Calvin Johnson is the only WR to crack the top 20. What's even more interesting is that the first TE doesn't appear until Jimmy Graham at number 23. While there has been a lot of talk about taking Graham or Rob Gronkowski in the first round this year, the VBD calculations would suggest you’re better off going with an RB or QB in the first round. I’m not alone in my findings, as Chet Gresham from thefakefootball.com arrived at similar results in his VBD calculations for non-PPR leagues.

With our offensive player VBD numbers now calculated, we can now finally turn to the issue of creating a combined set of VBD rankings that includes both offensive players and IDPs. Here we do face an initial problem, however. If we simply take the IDP VBD numbers that we calculated in Part I and combine those with our offensive values, we will find that the IDPs are severely overvalued. For example, Jason Pierre-Paul’s VBD value of 104 would place him just a hair behind Eli Manning at 28th overall. Now, there’s no doubt that Pierre-Paul is extremely valuable, but that’s just plain outrageous.

So how do we remedy this dilemma? With IDPs and offensive players, we’re essentially dealing with two different forms of currency. So just like we would do with Euros and U.S. dollars, I’m suggesting that we apply an exchange rate to our IDP values. This conversion will allow us to combine the two sets of VBD numbers into one coherent list.

Without the exchange rate, the IDP numbers carry more weight than their offensive counterparts, so we’re going to reduce them by one-third making them worth roughly 67% of their original value. This exchange rate will not only put both sides of the ball on equal footing, but it will also take into account the fact that owners tend to carry more offensive guys on their rosters instead of dividing their bench spots equally between IDPs and offensive players. Incidentally, I happen subscribe to this philosophy and will carry very little IDP depth with the one notable exception being at LB.

At this point, all we have left to do is apply the exchange rate to the IDP values and then combine those numbers with our offensive VBD values. Here are the resulting top 300 players:

[table id=495 /]

You’ll notice that I included the round conversion based on the player’s overall ranking in a 12-team league. With the exchange rate applied, Jason Pierre-Paul now comes in at 48th overall, which converts to pick 4.12. This number is only six spots later that his ADP value as of the day this article was published.

Similarly, Desmond Bishop is the first LB in the VBD rankings at 69th overall, which is just three spots after the first LB coming off the board in the ADP data, Patrick Willis. Tyvon Branch comes in as our top VBD ranked DB at 121st, and Eric Berry has been going off the board as the first DB taken at pick 117. This parody between our VBD rankings and the ADP data suggests that our exchange rate is successful.

Now with our combined VBD numbers, owners can get a concrete idea of when it’s time to pull the trigger on IDPs. However, I offer a word of caution along with the combined VBD numbers. These rankings are valuable draft day tool, but they are by no means the only tool you should be using. That would be akin to trying to build a house with just a hammer. As savvy fantasy owners we need to be utilizing additional tools such as positional ranking tiers that will help us adjust on the fly to the always-unpredictable draft day dynamics.

Jeff Ratcliffe is the Assistant Managing Editor and resident IDP maven of PFF Fantasy. 

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