• Betting markets have Jayden Daniels as the current favorite to go No. 2: Despite many deeming Drake Maye the likely choice for the Commanders through the pre-draft process, the market now favors Daniels.
• T.J. Tampa rounds out a loaded first-round cornerback group: The Iowa State standout heads to the Lions at Pick No. 29, joining Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Nate Wiggins, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Cooper DeJean in Round 1.
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We’re just over three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and free agency is mostly finished. With rosters around the league taking shape, we have a better understanding of team needs and potential draft targets.
This mock draft is inspired by the betting markets. Current betting lines are not overly efficient, as evidenced by the widely fluctuating prices in certain markets every day. However, the market can still shed light on how the draft may play out. Among the markets we will use in this mock are the position of a team’s first drafted player, the odds a player is drafted at each pick and the team to draft a player.
The betting market will be a guide — not the end-all, be-all — for assigning players to teams here.
This pick seems locked in, with Williams at anywhere from -4000 to -8000 to be selected first overall. The Bears get their new franchise quarterback.
Daniels is the favorite to be selected No. 2 overall at most sportsbooks. While this could change before the draft, the markets seem to think he will be new general manager Adam Peters’ first draft pick in Washington. It is worth noting that Peters was part of the 49ers contingent that led everyone to believe Mac Jones would be the third overall pick in 2021, and they ended up with Trey Lance. So, a player like Drake Maye could still be the pick.
Here, the Patriots select the next best quarterback on the board in Drake Maye, who replaces Mac Jones after three inconsistent seasons. Maye’s odds of being selected No. 3 overall range from +100 to -140.
Projected trade: Vikings receive Pick No: 5; Cardinals receive Pick Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-round pick
Here is where things get interesting. While Marvin Harrison Jr. is the favorite to be the fourth overall pick, there has been a lot of talk about the Vikings trading up to take a quarterback, which is what we’re projecting here. When the player-pick market opened, McCarthy was as high as +3300 to be selected fourth overall. That number is down to +200 now, just behind Harrison.
With the top four quarterbacks off the board, the Chargers get their pick of the best non-quarterbacks in the draft and add a stud wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. He would instantly step in and help transform a now-depleted receiver room. Harrison is a heavy favorite to be the first wide receiver off the board, sitting around +275 to be selected fifth overall after opening at +1600.
The Malik Nabers smoke has continued to build through the pre-draft cycle, and after his stellar pro day, some believe he could go before Marvin Harrison Jr. While the betting markets don’t seem to buy that notion just yet, Nabers still holds a place in the top 10. The Giants here, hopefully, find their most explosive wide receiver since another former LSU draft pick in Odell Beckham Jr.
After an offseason during which the Titans’ biggest splash was signing wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a big contract, they are heavily expected to take an offensive lineman at No. 7 overall, which has -300 odds on DraftKings. Here, they draft Joe Alt, who can provide quarterback Will Levis with blindside protection for the next decade.
The Falcons are likely to take a defender with their first pick and are -250 to select a defensive lineman on DraftKings. Dallas Turner is widely considered the best edge defender in the class and is the pick for Raheem Morris here.
Projected trade: Cardinals receive Pick No. 9; Bears receive Pick Nos. 11 and 90
The Cardinals here are replicating what they did last year when they gathered a handful of picks, then moved back up to secure their guy. With Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. off the board, Arizona moves back up to select Rome Odunze, who is considered the consensus WR3.
This one is tricky because the Jets have almost equal odds of selecting an offensive lineman or tight end Brock Bowers. While Bowers could be the more win-now pick, it’s worth noting that tight ends often have a slower development curve in the NFL, meaning that he might not produce as expected right away. That’s why New York goes with Fuaga, who gives the team important offensive line depth to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Projected trade: Bears receive Pick Nos. 11 and 90; Cardinals receive Pick No. 9
Step 1: Draft Caleb Williams; Step 2: Surround him with the best situation possible. Brian Thomas Jr. helps achieve the latter for Chicago. While DJ Moore and the newly acquired Keenan Allen are already one of the league’s best wide receiver duos, the depth behind them is very spotty. Thomas instantly fixes that and gives Chicago a future WR2 if they can’t come to terms on an extension with Allen.
The Broncos are heavy favorites to take a quarterback at most sportsbooks, but with the top four signal-callers off the board, it doesn't seem like Sean Payton would reach for QB5 here and build around him. It makes sense for them to address the edge defender position, where the Broncos could use reinforcements — something Latu would provide.
The Raiders are another wild-card team to trade up for a quarterback, but here they take Terrion Arnold to bolster the backend of their defense. Las Vegas is +175 to take a cornerback on DraftKings, second only to the team taking an offensive lineman with its first pick.
Trevor Penning has been a massive disappointment through two seasons, and with the recent news that Ryan Ramczyk might not be healthy to start the season, the Saints have to address that position early in the draft. Fashanu is the best tackle left on the board and can slot in to replace either player, depending on Ramczyk’s health. The markets currently see this as a likely outcome, with the Saints sitting at -200 on FanDuel and DraftKings to take an offensive lineman with their first pick.
The Colts invested in Kenny Moore II to be their nickel back for the foreseeable future, but they could use an upgrade at outside cornerback. Mitchell can provide Gus Bradley the type of lockdown cornerback play he’s had throughout his coaching career with guys like Jalen Ramsey, Casey Hayward and Richard Sherman. The Colts are currently +110 on DraftKings to take a cornerback.
The Seahawks' tackle situation is figured out, but after losing Damien Lewis in free agency, they have some holes to fill along the interior. Fautanu played left tackle for Washington in college but has been projected by some as a guard, which is where he’d likely play in Seattle. The Seahawks are currently -135 on DraftKings to take an offensive lineman with their first pick.
The Jaguars cut Darious Williams and signed a temporary replacement in Ronald Darby in free agency, but they could still invest more in the position. Even with Darby on the roster, drafting Wiggins would give them a long-term solution rather than a short-term fix. DraftKings currently has the Jaguars at -115 to take a cornerback with their first pick.
The Bengals could invest more in the offensive line (which is what the market is predicting now), but it’s hard to not give quarterback Joe Burrow another weapon. Bowers would provide a lot of positional flexibility, with the ability to line up inline or in the slot, forming another three-headed monster for Burrow to throw to, as has been the case since 2021.
Aaron Donald‘s retirement leaves a massive gap in the Rams' interior. Murphy is considered to be the best interior defensive lineman in the class and can be a disruptive three-technique for Los Angeles. Before Donald's retirement, the Rams to take a defensive lineman hovered around +150, but the team is now at -160 on DraftKings.
After trading Diontae Johnson, the Steelers could use a receiver to fill his spot. However, despite the team's lineage of drafting elite wide receivers, the last time they took one in the first round was Santonio Holmes in 2006. So instead, they draft Amarius Mims, who’s considered to have some of the highest upside in this class with his size and strength, in a reunion with former Georgia teammate Broderick Jones.
The Dolphins are currently -165 to take an offensive lineman on DraftKings, and since they have their tackle situation sorted out, they go with the best interior lineman on the board. Powers-Johnson can play either guard position or slide inside to center if new signing Aaron Brewer misses any time.
The Eagles haven’t taken a cornerback in the first round since 2002, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry are still on the roster. However, they don’t have a long-term solution on the outside, and we’ve seen general manager Howie Roseman draft future replacements in the first round multiple times. Eagles are also favorites to take a cornerback with their first pick, sitting at -120 on DraftKings.
Projected trade: Cardinals receive Pick Nos. 11, 23 and a 2023 third-round pick; Vikings receive Pick No: 5
The Cardinals desperately need some edge-rushing juice, and Verse is the best edge defender on the board at this pick.
The Cowboys aren’t favored to take a wide receiver with this pick, but Michael Gallup‘s release opens up the WR3 spot, which they fill with Adonai Mitchell here. With CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks not under contract in 2025, Mitchell could be a secondary weapon in 2024 before taking on a larger role down the road.
The Packers' roster doesn’t have many holes outside of the interior offensive line. Barton was a tackle in college but is being projected as a guard in the NFL, and he could slot into Green Bay's right guard spot.
After trading Carlton Davis, the Buccaneers have a huge hole at outside cornerback, which DeJean would be able to fill from day one.
The Cardinals spend another first-round pick on the trenches here, but this time on the offensive side of the ball to protect Kyler Murray. Frazier can slot in as a center or guard and start immediately for Arizona.
The Bills have two very solid interior defensive line starters in Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, but the depth behind them isn’t great, and with Jones being on the wrong side of 30 and coming off an injury-plagued season, the team needs to have an insurance plan. Buffalo currently sits at +225 on DraftKings to draft a defensive lineman in the first round.
Cameron Sutton‘s release opens up a spot at outside cornerback for Detroit. General manager Brad Holmes seemingly goes with a “best player available” pick in the first round each year, but for a team that has struggled to defend the pass for years, shoring up the backend should be a priority. In a man-heavy scheme like Detroit’s, Tampa’s physicality and ability to force incompletions are a good fit.
The markets believe the Ravens are taking an offensive lineman, with them being -210 on DraftKings to do so. They have a hole at right tackle after trading Morgan Moses, which is why JC Latham is the pick here. Latham matches a lot of what Baltimore looks for in tackles, and he should be a mauler in their scheme.
It seems like the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are moving further apart in contract negotiations with each passing day. If he is traded before or during the draft, San Francisco may try to address the position in the first round. McConkey gives Kyle Shanahan a great separator, something the 49ers sorely needed in the Super Bowl against man coverage, and insurance if Aiyuk isn’t on the roster this year or next.
The Chiefs signed Marquise Brown in free agency, but it’s only a one-year deal and they could still use more receivers in the room. Worthy would put an immense amount of stress on opposing defense with his speed, serving as a long-term fixture in this offense. The Chiefs are currently -105 on DraftKings to take a wide receiver.
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